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A statistical look at Michigan State basketball, with a dash of football talk

Tag Archive 'offensive ratings'

Final Conference-Only Points Over Replacement Per Adjusted Game (PORPAG)

kj on Mar 9th 2009

Original PORPAG post is here.  The basics:

As a refresher, this stat is an attempt to measure the marginal points per game a player contributes to his team on offense above what a “replacement-level” player would provide.
Major caveats: (1) Basketball is a team, not an individual, sport and (2) this stat tells you nothing whatsoever about [...]

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More PORPAG!

kj on Jan 20th 2009

Following up on yesterday’s attempt to invent a statistic, here are the current Points Over Replacement Per Adjusted Game (PORPAG) numbers for the MSU players listed at Kenpom:

Player
Min%
OffRtg
%Poss
PORPAG

Lucas
76.0
121.3
23.0
3.90

Morgan
67.3
112.7
25.6
2.88

Allen
49.8
108.9
24.0
1.70

Suton
35.5
123.6
17.4
1.47

Summers
50.2
104.6
20.0
1.15

Walton
68.8
98.1
15.3
0.76

Roe
41.7
99.3
20.0
0.67

Green
21.7
110.6
15.2
0.51

Gray
33.0
99.5
18.6
0.50

Thornton
10.8
109.9
17.6
0.28

Lucious
20.7
91.0
24.8
0.13

Ibok
16.8
78.1
8.8
-0.09

TOTAL
13.86

Michigan State’s current (raw) offensive efficiency figure is 112.0.  So in a 65-possession game, they’d be expected to score 72.8 points.  A [...]

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Can’t stop scatterplotting

kj on Jan 16th 2009

With the offensive rating/usage rate scatterplot phenomenon rapidly spreading through the Big Ten blogsophere (OK, one other guy decided to make one), I was inspired to produced another scatterplot of my own.  Here it is:

The scatterplot includes the top two scorers on every Big Ten team (except for IU’s Devan Dumes, whose offensive rating of [...]

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Scatterplot time

kj on Jan 13th 2009

I’ve been meaning to do this for a couple weeks:

A review of the methodology:
Offensive rating is basically an attempt to use all the individual basketball stats currently available to measure a player’s efficiency in using possessions to score points.  The rating uses the same scale as team offensive efficiency (points scored per 100 possessions).
Usage [...]

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Drew Neitzel: Present and Past

kj on Jul 15th 2008

The Timberwolves’ summer league team played its first game last night.  Neitzel scored 10 points on 4-5 FG shooting (all 2-pointers), including 2-2 on 3-pointers, in 14 minutes.  On the downside, he had zero assists and turned the ball over two times.
Someone named Pooh Jeter, from St. Vincent College the University of Portland, was apparently [...]

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Bonus scatter plots: Wisconsin and Purdue

kj on Jul 14th 2008

To get a better sense how individual offensive ratings and usage percentages fit together, here are scatter plots for the top two teams in the Big Ten this past season.  Note that the vertical axis is recalibrated based on the approximate average team offensive efficiency figure for both teams (108.9 for Wisconsin; 105.0 for Purdue).

The [...]

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Putting “Basketball on Paper” to work

kj on Jul 11th 2008

Having read through all 350+ pages of “Basketball on Paper,” I thought I should try to put a little of what I learned to use.  Let’s take a look at MSU’s individual offensive rating and usage rates.  Both these stats are available at kenpom.com.
Offensive rating is basically an attempt to use all the individual basketball [...]

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