Avoiding the swat
Posted by kj on Friday, April 3rd, 2009
The scariest piece of UConn’s statistical profile is the number of shots they block. The Huskies swatted away roughly one out of every six (17.2%) shots their opponents attempted from two-point range this season.
MSU, meanwhile, improved somewhat this season in avoiding getting their shots blocked, reducing their offensive block% from 9.8% to 8.4%. But it’s still something of a team weakness. Raymar Morgan, in particular, always seems to struggle getting his shot off close to the rim against taller defenders.
(Related: At this point, I really view Morgan as a role player. He’s there to match-up with Stanley Robinson for at leat 15-20 minutes and hopefully grab some rebounds. But any scoring he provides will be gravy.)
The table below shows our offensive block% (i.e., number of shots blocked divided by 2-point FG attempts) for each game this season, sorted from highest to lowest (worst to best).
| OHIO STATE | W | 26.5 |
| at Purdue | L | 17.0 |
| vs Maryland | L | 16.7 |
| vs Robert Morris | W | 14.6 |
| vs North Carolina | L | 14.3 |
| vs Louisville | W | 13.9 |
| vs Southern Cal | W | 13.2 |
| PURDUE | W | 12.2 |
| vs Ohio State | L | 12.0 |
| vs Oakland University | W | 11.9 |
| at Minnesota | W | 10.9 |
| MINNESOTA | W | 10.3 |
| at Iowa Hawkeyes | W | 9.3 |
| vs Kansas | W | 9.1 |
| at IPFW | W | 8.9 |
| at Northwestern | W | 8.7 |
| at Ohio State | W | 8.3 |
| BRADLEY | W | 7.3 |
| WISCONSIN | W | 7.1 |
| KANSAS | W | 7.0 |
| IOWA HAWKEYES | W | 6.9 |
| vs Minnesota | W | 6.7 |
| vs Texas | W | 6.5 |
| IDAHO | W | 5.6 |
| at Penn State | W | 4.7 |
| NORTHWESTERN | L | 3.8 |
| at Illinois | W | 3.8 |
| at Michigan | W | 3.4 |
| at Indiana | W | 3.1 |
| INDIANA | W | 2.6 |
| vs Wichita State | W | 2.6 |
| ILLINOIS | W | 2.4 |
| PENN STATE | L | 2.4 |
| THE CITADEL | W | 2.4 |
| vs Oklahoma State | W | 2.0 |
| ALCORN STATE | W | 0.0 |
The bad news: Five opponents blocked more than 14% of our 2-point attempts. We lost 3 of those games.
The good news:
- For two of those losses, we were missing Goran Suton, who ususally finds a way to get his shot off near the basket without getting it blocked.
- Minnesota–which ranks first in the country in defensive block % at 19.0%–never managed to block more than 11% of our 2-point attempts in the three games we played against them.
- We managed to beat both USC and Louisville, despite offensive block percentages above 13%.
What does this mean for tomorrow night? I’m not quite sure. The Minnesota thing is encouraging–except that their high block% is more a function of multiple guys than of a single dominant shot blocker like Thabeet.
Maybe Izzo will have a fabulous gameplan that gets Thabeet out of position and creates some easy looks near the basket. Absent that outcome, knocking down 3-pointers and mid-range shots doesn’t look to be optional in this game, given that UConn’s very unlikely to put us at the free throw line with any frequency. (Shooting a combined 14-29 from 3-point range certainly helped our cause in the USC and Louisville games.)
Filed in stats analysis4 responses so far
4 Responses to “Avoiding the swat”
Adamon 03 Apr 2009 at 5:19 pm 1The 2005 Elite 8 game versus UK is on the Big Ten network right now.
MooTheKowon 03 Apr 2009 at 7:11 pm 2ESPN2 is currently (7pm) showing the Indiana State/MSU 79 championship game.
Uncle Omaron 03 Apr 2009 at 9:42 pm 3Could this be the game we see Herzog for 10 minutes or so to defend Thabeet and trick UConn into letting Suton loose near the free throw line? Herzog has been playing Thabeet on the scout team, so I would not be surprised to see him more than we are used to. It is not as though Thabeet is super strong, he really hasn’t grown into his body from a strength and muscle standpoint at this stage. Putting Herzog on him to push and pull for 10 to 15 minutes might be a way to keep him out of the paint.
UConn Game Recap (4/4/09) | Spartans Weblogon 05 Apr 2009 at 2:53 pm 4[...] It was pretty apparent early that Tom Izzo had not consulted Digger Phelps about the game plan: The plan was to run early and run often. By doing so, MSU was able to create scoring opportunities near the basket without Hasheem Thabeet in position to block shots. For the game Thabeet, blocked just two shots (a stat I had a hard time believing when I saw the box score). UConn totaled 7 blocks–just 13.2% of MSU’s 2-point attempts, which was right in line with the percentage that USC and Louisville blocked. [...]