" title="Spartans Weblog">Spartans Weblog

A statistical look at Michigan State basketball, with a dash of football talk

State of the Blog Address: A-Change-is-a-Comin’ Edition

Posted by kj on Tuesday, March 10th, 2009

To date, this basketball season has been a blogging dream.  On the court, our team has fulfilled, if not exceeded, preseason expectations by running away with the Big Ten Championship–despite a series of injuries and illnesses along the way.  On the blog, I managed to make some pretty good predictions before the season began (more on that later), and readership has continued to grow, exceeding 1,000 page views per day the last few weeks.

But I can’t keep it up.

As rewarding as this experience has been–it’s forced me to learn a lot more than I previously knew about college basketball, and it’s introduced me to a lot of really smart MSU fans–I can no longer maintain the daily posting pace needed to keep a good sports blog going.  Pesky things like a job and a family (both of which are expanding this year) keep getting in the way.

So, effective at the end of MSU’s NCAA Tournament run, the Spartans Weblog will cease operations.

That’s the bad news.

Here’s the good news: Something even better is going to replace it.  All the details haven’t been finalized.  But a team of some of brightest minds in the MSU blogosphere (or at least the brightest minds willing to talk to me–most of them are people you already know) will be joining forces to bring you a bigger, better MSU blog experience.

Upside for me:

  • I’ll still have an outlet to share insights (or, absent insights, Excel-generated scatterplots) when they occur to me.
  • I won’t have to try to do that every day of the week.

Upside for all of us:

  • You’ll get multiple perspectives on MSU athletics, not just mine.
  • There will be a lot more football talk.
  • We’ll all still have a gathering place to analyze, discuss, celebrate, and commiserate about events in Spartan land.

Thanks to everyone who’s helped make this website what it is today.  If not for you, I wouldn’t even have thought of putting together the new blogging team.  As much as I’m going to miss running this blog solo, I think the new site is going to be a blast.  Stay tuned for all the details.

Until then, though, I have every intention of manning my post (or, rather, laptop) until the final buzzer goes off on the 2008-09 Michigan State basketball season.

Now, back to how smart I am (That’s what we were talking about, right?)

We’ve touched on this in the last couple days, but let’s examine it in excruciating detail: Did I hit the nail on the head with my preseason predictions or what?

Prediction #1:

(Note: Predictions are not presented in chronological order.)

  • There are six nonconference games that should be comfortable wins (Idaho/IPFW/Bradley/Alcorn St/Citadel/Oakland).  That leaves six games against BCS-level competition (three in the Old Spice Classic).  With Delvon Roe slowly getting up to full speed and the team adjusting to a more up-tempo style, I think 9-3 would be a reasonable outcome.  If they made the Old Spice Classic final, lost to UNC, and split with Texas/Kansas, they’d hit that mark.
  • In conference play, this team should be good enough to hold court against the entire league for a 9-0 home record.  Road games against Purdue and Ohio State lean toward losses.  Thankfully, we don’t play in Madison this season.  Toss in one more road loss against the middle of the league (Minnesota/Illinois/Penn State/Michigan) and you get a conference record of 15-3.

I was within one game on the nonconference mark.  We actually beat my 9-3 prediction by a game (assisted by the easier Old Spice Classic schedule the opening-round loss to Maryland created).  And I hit the conference mark exactly.

Had I known Goran Suton and Raymar Morgan would both miss substantial playing time, I doubt I would have been so optimistic in my prognostications.  But the mark of this team from the beginning was depth, and that depth paid dividends when injury/illness struck.

Looking ahead, I had us going a combined 5-2 in postseason play.  Let’s hope we get 3 of those wins in the BTT or 4 of them in the Big Dance to earn ourselves another banner, eh?

Prediction #2:

So I must force myself to make at least one bold prediction about the upcoming season.  I worry they’ll pull my sports blogger union card if I don’t.  Here it is:

Kalin Lucas will be the Big Ten Player of the Year.

The popular preseason picks for this honor are Hummel and Morgan.  And you can make a reasonable argument for both.  My inclination is to think that there’s less room for either of those guys to improve on their performances from last year (at least statistically) than there is for Lucas, though.

. . .

Lucas, meanwhile, should see substantial increases in his numbers.  MSU’s commitment to push the ball on offense, along with Lucas’ new role as the clear #1 point guard, should boost his assists/game number from last year’s 3.8.  There’s room for his shooting percentages to rise from the .445/.364/.768 numbers he posted last season, and he’ll have even more oppotunities to score in the half-court offense as the go-to guy with the shot clock running down.  Both those factors should boost his scoring from 10.3 points/game.

Bammo!  As I pointed out last night, Lucas wasn’t even named to the preseason all-conference team.  So you can’t say this was a UNC-will-win-the-national-title kind of a prediction.  I’m just that smart.  (And let’s say we ignore the part about how B.J. Mullens could be a contender for POTY, OK?)

Prediction#3:

The major outstanding question is what happens when the team is forced to play half-court offense.  Last year, the team struggled to score at times when things bogged down, leading to inconsistent offensive performance in conference play.

The good news is that we have several players who should be able to create scoring opportunities near the basket: Lucas and Summers off the drive and Morgan, Roe, and Suton in the low-post.  To keep those options open, though, MSU will need to show it can consistently make perimeter shots, particularly from 3-point range.  Otherwise, defenses will be able to collapse on players in the paint and it will be tough to create good looks at the basket.

. . .

My intuition is that if Lucas and Summers both shoot 37% or better from 3-point range this season, while each taking 2-3 three-point shots per game, MSU will have a Big Ten Championship/Final Four-caliber offense.

Well, here you go:

  • Kalin Lucas: 39.5% 3pt%.
  • Durrell Summers: 38.5% 3pt%

And:

bigten-banner
(Man, do I love that photo.)

Now the path to that banner wasn’t quite as simple as I laid it out in that preseason post.  Statistically, our offense was driven almost entirely by getting to the free throw line and rebounding the ball.  And we slumped pretty badly shooting the ball from beyond the arc down the stretch; over the first seven games of the second half of the conference schedule, the team made less than 30% of their 3-point attempts in all but one game.

Still, Lucas and Summers both hit some big 3-point shots at various points during the season.  And, over the full season, their numbers are quite good (better, in fact, than the one guy we thought would be our most reliable long-range shooters).  Summers, in particular, has been a big enough threat from 3-point range that you’ve seen defenses adjusting to make sure he doesn’t get good looks from beyond the arc in the last several games.

So I’m definitely chalking that one up as a success, too.  Three for three, baby!  (Maybe I should retire completely from the blogging business, as my odds of ever repeating this feat are roughly 1,000-1.)

P.S. There’s still time to enter the The Second Annual and World’s Only (As Far As We Know) Big Ten Tournament Bracket Contest.  I admire everyone’s fidelity to MSU, given the fact that picking the same team as 90% of the other entries reduces your odds of winning.  But I have to say–having been as optimistic as any Spartan observer out there over the course of the season–I now have a strange, ominous feeling about our fate in the conference tournament (visions of Northwestern staking their claim to an NCAA tournament slot at our expense).  Hopefully, that’s just my subconscious overcompensating.

(More rational discussion of BTT chances: On the one hand, Izzo might not want to burn the team out by pushing the players full-bore over the three-day weekend, given that we took home the regular season conference title.  On the other hand, playing 2-3 more games with the full lineup at 100% is probably a good thing in terms of establishing an offensive rhythm going into the Big Dance.  My bet: He pushes the team hard, but keeps the starters’ minutes below 30 per game.)

P.P.S. One of the reasons I think this is a good time to step away from this site and move to something more specifically MSU-focused is the emergence of the Big Ten Geeks.  (The impetus for starting this blog, after all, was the departure of the Big Ten Wonk.)  Be sure to check out their excellent defense of the Big Ten’s  credentials for the Big Dance (I love disagreements among stats-prone writers) and their stats-based All-Big Ten team (superb analysis of Lucas’ adapation over the course of the season).

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Filed in commentary, site news38 responses so far

38 Responses to “State of the Blog Address: A-Change-is-a-Comin’ Edition”

  1. Chrison 10 Mar 2009 at 8:46 pm 1

    You have done a fantastic job kj. You will be certainly be missed.

  2. zacharyon 10 Mar 2009 at 8:53 pm 2

    thats too bad. you run a great blog.

    in my ideal world thered be a blog like this and its football equivalent. i hope one big blog can encompass that.

  3. Uncle Omaron 10 Mar 2009 at 8:54 pm 3

    Good luck to you. Your work has, in many ways, opened my eyes to much about basketball that I understood poorly, if at all. I view the game and boxscores in a different light. To paraphase Bob Knight, “The box score indicts and the tape convicts.” At least I know how to draft the indictment a little better now. I have also enjoyed the comments. Unlike the M-Live comments there was little if any trolling and almost everyone wrote in English with appropriate punctuation and spelling. Hopefully Spartansweblog will remain an upscale beacon in a downscale blogosphere. It would be nice if it made the proprietor a little money now and then, too.

  4. Ground Zero East Lansingon 10 Mar 2009 at 9:38 pm 4

    Don’t worry y’all, KJ will still be posting, just not as often. Think of it as a friend from the dorms. You used to see him or her every day, but then you both moved out and live in different places in EL. They’re still around, but you see them less often.

    Also, having heard a bit about the replacement – it’s going to be sweet. Trust me on this.

  5. wife of a spartanon 10 Mar 2009 at 10:15 pm 5

    You’ve done a great job and we will enjoy your posts/entries when they
    occur. This is now one of my favorite sites, saved for last when drinking coffee in the morning and not in a hurry and often checked again at night
    as your entries have been so timely and interesting.

    Congratulations on pioneering the site (maybe years from now we
    will all be able to say we enjoyed the site when up and running by KJ) and for recognizing when it is becoming too much. Sometimes in life we let things we love and are good at grow to the point where they take up too much of our time and energy at the expense of the other worthwhile things in life. My kids are 14, 18, and 20. I’ve been lucky enough to work part time until this past year and my husband and I have enjoyed every year, every age, though not necessarily every parenting challenge. You don’t get to go back with your children and do it over, so good for you. One of the saddest things sometimes with truly famous, sometimes very gifted people is when their kids complain that all dad’s (mom’s) energy, time, passion was given to their work, research etc. I think all parents struggle with not having enough time, energy for their kids sometimes but when it goes on for years, how sad.

    Thank you for this year and how much you’ve added to our enjoyment of the team and the season. thanks too for trying to keep it going by adding other bloggers.

    I agree with the others that the comments here from readers are well worth reading and thinking about too. When i go back to mlive or read the LSJ blog comments (tanfan), i quickly grow tired of scrolling through the meaningless stuff or trying to find the real discussions.

  6. DP99on 10 Mar 2009 at 10:16 pm 6

    You’ve filled in great, kj. I was really depressed with the MSU blog scene until I ran into this site. So I’m sad and excited at the same time. An MSU super-blog… I might not be visiting anything else ever again. Hope you’ll keep up there often. I hope MSU keeps you out of retirement for another month, though.

    G0EL, you’re not in on this? I feel like I need more from the run-down-engineering-student perspective. It brings back plenty memories.

  7. Andrewon 10 Mar 2009 at 10:19 pm 7

    Way to bail after your great pre-season picks. That isn’t completely shady or anything . . . .

    Honestly, thanks for all of your work over the last few seasons. Every post has been a must-read for any MSU fan and some of the best coverage of any team that I’ve found in print (few things in my Google Reader window are more exciting than a new post from this blog). I’m glad you’re just shifting your contributions and that you’ll still be around.

  8. Ground Zero East Lansingon 10 Mar 2009 at 10:29 pm 8

    DP99 –

    Well, not to steal KJ’s thunder, but yes, I am one of the writers he mentioned before. I don’t feel rundown though – having obtained a Biochem degree before going for Chemical Engineering means I only have to take the engineering courses.

    But don’t expect any riveting blog entries on heat exchangers or Plug Flow reactors though – not my style.

  9. Benon 10 Mar 2009 at 10:50 pm 9

    Loooooved that “Haterade” post, especially this part:

    Michigan State absolutely shredded a Kansas team that has been dominant in the Big 12.

    That game was phenomenal, and looks better and better all the time . . .

  10. Philon 10 Mar 2009 at 11:08 pm 10

    I have enjoyed your work immensely — loved the bball-only focus while it lasted.

  11. Stukaon 10 Mar 2009 at 11:22 pm 11

    Looking forward to your future contributions whenever you get a chance. Echoing what others have said: this blog has raised the bar for future MSU sports blogs… thanks, kj.

  12. Patrick Hayeson 10 Mar 2009 at 11:26 pm 12

    I’ve really enjoyed your work and thoroughness, certainly more insight than we get from traditional media when it comes to MSU hoops. Good luck.

  13. Seeron 10 Mar 2009 at 11:39 pm 13

    in my ideal world thered be a blog like this and its football equivalent. i hope one big blog can encompass that.

    This and

    I was really depressed with the MSU blog scene until I ran into this site.

    this.

    I have a guess as to what you’re planning based on what I’ve seen other Big 10 blogs evolving into.

    The analysis on this site has been incredible, I’ve learned a lot about basketball here while following what’s been a great season.

    Also, thanks for that DVD.

    Good luck, I look forward to your future site.

  14. Nickon 11 Mar 2009 at 12:08 am 14

    Thanks for two wonderful seasons of blogging and here’s hoping that you will unexpectedly find more time than you anticipate. But I have a five year old of my own, and I know how that goes.

    Congratulations on the expanding family and do let us know about the arrival of the new Spartan Webbaby!

  15. Jumpin' Johnny Gon 11 Mar 2009 at 7:14 am 15

    This has been an awesome site to read. I hope the new one is as through in covering the Spartan BBall machine.

    I love not only the content but also the lay-out is easy to read and uncluttered, unlike many sites that are overcooked.

    Thank you for the time you devoted to this for our pleasure.

  16. MooTheKowon 11 Mar 2009 at 7:15 am 16

    Thanks KJ… your blog has been fantastic…

  17. SpartyAlumon 11 Mar 2009 at 7:55 am 17

    Thank u so much KJ…it has been a pleasure to read the site everyday.This will be sorely missed.

  18. kjon 11 Mar 2009 at 8:01 am 18

    “An MSU super-blog”

    Think of it as the blogging equivalent of Ringo Starr and His All-Starr Band.

    Thanks for everyone’s kind remarks. This is the next best thing to attending your own funeral.

  19. Mark in DCon 11 Mar 2009 at 8:44 am 19

    Thanks KJ. You’ve been an enjoyable and enlightening read all season long. You, Big 10 Geeks, and TAFKABTW have been my primary procrastination reads all season (in that order). Any info on who else will be contributing? I remember back in the day (circa 2000) I used to follow the Mlive MSU basketball forum and there was a guy on there who called himself St8izgr8 who contributed spot on analysis. His ability to predict exactly how games would play out was uncanny (almost as good as yours). I don’t know whatever happened to him but if he could be tracked down and were willing he’d be a great contributor. I don’t know how people with full time jobs find the time to blog – I sure couldn’t do it. Thanks for all the hard work. Glad to hear we’ll still be able to read your thoughts

  20. donaldoon 11 Mar 2009 at 9:01 am 20

    I’m here in the Caribbean, checking in at my numero uno website. Sorry to hear about the end of the blog, but everything in life is impermanent, isn’t it. I have thoroughly enjoyed the thoughful discussion on your blog. I’m hoping that I can catch some of the games while away – I love the vacation part, but struggle with potentially missing games – I’ll keep up with your help.

    Thanks.

  21. kjon 11 Mar 2009 at 9:03 am 21

    “Any info on who else will be contributing?”

    G0EL Pete’s obviously part of the team.

    The other guys can out themselves if they want.

    Otherwise, I’ll keep it under wraps for now to add to the drama of the new site’s official launch.

  22. GBBoundon 11 Mar 2009 at 9:17 am 22

    KJ -

    Thanks for picking up the slack when the Big Ten Wonk departed for greener pastures. You’ve always been a must read daily.

    To Mark in DC – St8IzGr8 is alive and well and has been posting regularly over at the message boards at michiganstate.scout.com. He still does pregame summaries, but has dispensed with the predictions.

  23. witless chumon 11 Mar 2009 at 10:33 am 23

    I look forward to telling people I was reading Spartansweblog back in the old days when it was just KJ.

    I’m glad the blog will be expanding, but l’ll miss the near daily KJ posts, like everybody else.

    Thanks for creating and putting so much work into this.

  24. Dylan (umhoops.com)on 11 Mar 2009 at 10:55 am 24

    KJ, this blog one was no doubt one of the best. I’m definitely disappointed that it is going away but hopefully the “MSU super blog” is every bit as professional and high quality.

    Good luck and finish strong :-)

  25. Vicon 11 Mar 2009 at 11:27 am 25

    Say it ain’t so…this is far and away the best spartan blog out there. KJ you will be missed, thanks for all your work.

  26. DP99on 11 Mar 2009 at 1:03 pm 26

    “MSU super-blog” istrademarkregisteredcannotbeused withouttheexpresswrittconsrlrlrlrlaffiliazition rlrlNASCARandRickyBobbyInc. (holding up index finger for #1)

    Once it goes up we’ll have to break down who’s the Bowie and who’s Frampton, or who’s Clapton and who’s Allman, or who’s CSN and who’s Y, or who’s Ted Nugent and who’s Tommy Shaw…

  27. BTT Game 1: Michigan vs. Iowa Preview | UM Hoops.comon 11 Mar 2009 at 4:35 pm 27

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  28. Ryanon 11 Mar 2009 at 5:21 pm 28

    This blog is probably one of the top five team centered blogs out there.

    But all good things must come to an end.

    Go MSU!

  29. huberton 11 Mar 2009 at 8:54 pm 29

    let me add my kudos. The blog has become essential reading. Thanks.
    I assume that you are moving to an elder statesman kind role, writing occasional think pieces of sheer genius, now that you are free of the deadening deadlines. Happy retirement!

  30. kjon 11 Mar 2009 at 9:27 pm 30

    It won’t be quite that extreme, Hubert. I’ll be posting more than just occasionally–and the posts are unlikely to be at “genius” level.

    I like the sound of “elder statesman,” though.

  31. Jasonon 12 Mar 2009 at 2:02 pm 31

    Bummer kj, this was my favorite site! A huge thanks for all of the effort you put in and I look forward to the future.

  32. machanidason 13 Mar 2009 at 1:33 pm 32

    KJ, thanks a lot. You brought a professionalism to MSU blogging that it so dearly needed. My friends and I are sad to see it end but I can imagine that the next edition will be just as insightful, entertaining, and classy. Thanks much for being a good face for our university in this amazing new media!

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  34. MSU bball is my passionon 19 Mar 2009 at 12:13 am 34

    I heard that you were no longer going to be blogging from someone at the BTT and I was sorry to hear that. I haven’t left any comments previously but I have truly enjoyed your blog when I visited from time to time. Good luck w/ your endeavors in the future.

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  38. Steve in KYon 08 Apr 2009 at 12:20 pm 38

    KJ:
    You did a great job with this website. It was usually my best source of information and analysis on MSU basketball.
    I am hopefull that this new web site you mentioned will fill in adequately. I fear it may not. In any case, thanks for your efforts and I wish you well. You are a great Spartan my friend and I hope to read more of your contributions in the future.