" title="Spartans Weblog">Spartans Weblog

Noon Sunday.  The Breslin Center. CBS.

I hope this won’t be interpreted as a lack of enthusiasm about Sunday’s game, but I’m going to have to phone this game preview in due to birthday-related festivities for the Official Oldest Son of the Spartans Weblog that commenced earlier this evening and will extent into tomorrow evening.  Here’s what I’ve got to offer:

The Numbers

Remarkably, we’re now a (slightly) better defensive team that Purdue in conference play.  Both Michigan and Northwestern scored at roughly a 1.20 points-per-possession clip in their wins against the Boilermakers over the last two weeks.

Stealing a Prescription from a Previous Game Preview

Of course, our offense is nothing like Michigan or Northwestern’s.  I’m going to say the same thing I did prior to the more recent game against Illinois:

And the key to playing efficiently on offense?  Turnovers, of course.  I’ve recently posited that MSU’s turnover issues are now limited to playing teams with aggressive man-to-man defenses.  And Illinois is one of those teams.  In the first match-up, Illinois forced us to give the ball up 18 times in 66 possessions (27.3%), as the three point guards turned it over a combined 9 times against the ball-hawking defense of Chester Frazier et al.  [Numbers for the first Purdue match-up: 22 turnovers in 70 possessions.  Replace "Chester Frazier" with "Chris Kramer."]

I’ve argued in the past that you have to make a team that applies a full court press pay by beating the press for easy baskets.  Otherwise, there’s no reason for the opponent not to press you.  The same concept applies to aggressive man-to-man defense.  The defensive pressure is going to disrupt MSU’s set plays.  They have to compensate by creating some easy baskets, either by dribbling past/around pressure or passing the ball to cutting players.  Otherwise, there’s no reason for Illinois not to extend their defense.

Reasons to be Wary About This Game

• Purdue is the only Big Ten team to completely outclass us in a game this year.
• E’Twaun Moore has finally found his scoring touch: 69 points on 11-26 3-point shooting over the last 4 games.

Reasons to be Optimistic About This Game

• We didn’t have a full-strength Raymar Morgan the last time.  He’ll create a serious mismatch for us on offense.
• You have to believe Travis Walton and Goran Suton will have something to say about how this game goes down on Senior Day.

Kenpom predicts a 68-64 MSU in a 67-possession game.  A win would be the icing on the conference season, giving us at least one win against every other team in the league, and keeping us in the conversation for a #1 seed in the Big Dance.  What do you, the Spartans Weblog faithful, see as the keys going into this game?

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