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A statistical look at Michigan State basketball, with a dash of football talk

Indiana Game Preview

Posted by kj on Monday, March 2nd, 2009

Rankings Update

Question (that I do not know the answer to): Could we be placed in the Midwest region (final in Indy) as a #2 seed?  It seems like I remember similar situations occurring in past years, but the couple of bracket projections I looked at today (including Lunardi’s) show us elsewhere.

Izzo for Big Ten Coach of the Year?

The Detroit News’ Eric Lacy has a blog post up making the case for Tom Izzo as the conference’s coach of the year.  Key segment:

Player injuries and illness have forced Izzo to use 13 different starting lineups, as well as play three freshmen (Korie Lucious, Delvon Roe and Draymond Green) key minutes.

Izzo’s team is 23-5 (13-3 Big Ten) despite playing one of the nation’s toughest schedules and they are an NCAA-best 11-2 against the top 50 teams in the RPI.”

Beat the Indiana Hoosiers on Tuesday and the program earns its first outright conference championship since the 1998-99 season.

It’s an uncoventional nomination.  Generally, high-profile coaches of teams expected to compete for the conference title are only considered for conference coach of the year if they put together a truly dominant conference record.  In this case, though, the team in question has played nearly half its conference schedule (eight games) with its preseason all-conference player missing or severely limited and nevertheless put together a title-winning record while losing just one game on the road.  It’s hard to do that without some stellar coaching along the way.

The conference coach of the year race is a lot like the conference player year of the race: There are plenty of plausible candidates, with no clear front runner.  Really, you could make an argument for any of the guys whose teams have increased their number of conference wins from last year:

  • Bruce Weber (+6): From second division to title contender–except that their fundamental performance really hasn’t improved.
  • Bill Carmody (+6): Do you give him credit for how close they’ve come to a winning conference record or hold the late-game collapses against him?
  • John Beilein (+3): From 10-22 to 18-12 with basically the same talent.
  • Ed DeChellis (+2): Built an upper-division team around two undersized stars.
  • Tom Izzo (+1)

What do you guys think?

Indiana Game Preview

7:00 Tuesday.  Assembly Hall, Bloomington, Indiana.  ESPN.

There was certainly very little time for the players to celebrate clinching a share of the Big Ten title.  In fact, our Spartans didn’t even have time to come home–going straight from Champaign to Bloomington.  Thankfully, the extra day of rest/preparation is the only advantage Indiana brings into this game:

Category MSU Off Rk IU Def Rk
PPP 1.07 1t 1.11 11
TO% 21.6 7 19.2 8
eFG% 48.7 7t 56.3 11
FTR 38.5 1 38.8 11
OffReb% 42.8 1 28,8 4
Category IU Off Rk MSU Def Rk
PPP 0.93 11 0.94 2t
TO% 25.6 11 20.7 3t
eFG% 48.2 9 48.1 4
FTR 34.5 4 34.3 7
OffReb% 33.3 3 24.7 1

What I said about the numbers prior to the last meeting:

The rebounding numbers, I think, reflect this is a team that works hard and hustles in a league that doesn’t place much emphasis on offensive rebounding.  The 3-point shooting is more impressive, given that they don’t have any quality inside scoring options to draw defenders in; their 2-point shooting percentage of 43.1% is only slightly higher than their 3-point shooting percentage.

Offsetting those strengths are a multitude of weaknesses.  A high turnover percentage 24.4%) and opposing free-throw rate (39.9%) indicate they’re overmatched defensively.  And they’re allowing opponents to shoot the same 41.3% on 3-pointers.

Three-point shooting is, of course, the one great hope of underdogs facing long odds.  Earlier in conference play, IU looked like it was emerging as a serious 3-point shooting threat, hitting over 50.0% of their 3-point attempts in 4 consecutive games (culminating in their single conference win, against Iowa).  Since then, however, the Hoosiers have shot just 29.6% from 3-point range over 7 games.

Devan Dumes had been the main source of the torrid 3-point shooting numbers, making 18 of 29 long-distance shots in the 4-game stretch.  The next game was against us.  He did a bad, bad thing in that game, was suspended by Tom Crean for two games, and has hit a pedestrian 7 of 21 three-point attempts in the four games since.

Verdell Jones III has been Indiana’s leading scorer of late, scoring 59 points in the 4 games since these two teams met in East Lansing.  At 6′5″, Jones does the vast majority of his scoring from inside the 3-point arc.

On the other end of the court, this game might represent a chance for MSU to refind its own 3-point shooting stroke.  Seven of IU’s conference opponents have hit the 50.0% mark from beyond the arc.

Kenpom predicts a 71-59 MSU win in a 67-possession game.  The conventional thing to say here is that we can’t take anything for granted–and point out that the Hoosiers played Penn State to the wire on the road on Saturday–but I just really can’t see this MSU team losing this game under anything but the most bizarre circumstances.  Indiana has lost 18 of the last 19 basketball games it’s played.  If ever there was a time not to take a bad team too lightly, this is the time.  An outright conference title awaits.

« « Blogpoll Ballot IV | Indiana Open Thread » »

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Filed in commentary, game preview, rankings update15 responses so far

15 Responses to “Indiana Game Preview”

  1. Nickon 02 Mar 2009 at 9:22 pm 1

    KJ–The MSU athletics site is doing a very nice set of articles on the history of African American athletes at MSU. Articles already out on Johnny Green and Ron Charles in basketball:

    http://msuspartans.cstv.com/sp.....09aae.html

    http://msuspartans.cstv.com/sp.....09aac.html

    and on Blanche Martin in football:

    http://msuspartans.cstv.com/sp.....09aaa.html

    Please excuse if you’ve already noted this and I’ve missed it. But thought you and the rest of the friends of Spartans Weblog would like these.

  2. Joshon 02 Mar 2009 at 10:16 pm 2

    It seems like NW has had too many blown opportunities for Carmody to get COY.
    I could see Beilein, Izzo, or Weber.

  3. Benon 02 Mar 2009 at 10:28 pm 3

    I think it’s going to be Weber, but I’d probably vote DeChellis. PSU has had a very good season, including a clear signature win (against us, ugh), another very impressive road win (at Champaign, a place which very few byline writers seem capable of spelling properly), and a possible NCAA tournament birth at probably the conference’s worst basketball school. Even given the above-average talent he has to work with, I’ve been impressed.

  4. danon 03 Mar 2009 at 12:02 am 4

    i like the argument about Izzo, he has had to coach this team up, but they were the favorites, and his job was to weather the storms.

    I like DeChellis, Weber, & Carmodd. Of those three I think Weber will get it; his team has – by far – been the best team of these three teams.

    How about Crean?!? I mean his team is possibly the least experienced team in the whole country, they never played together before this summer, they had to sideline their best player, and yet the team has not given up on him. Even without the wins, his work this year at motivating a team that was possibly the least talented squad in the league ever, to at least play hard for an entire season.

  5. SpartanDanon 03 Mar 2009 at 9:07 am 5

    We could be put in Indy (even if the #1 seed is from further away), but at the top end of the bracket I think pairing the top #1 with the bottom #2 and so on is usually a higher priority than location for the 2s. So our location may depend on the order of the #1 seeds.

  6. Jasonon 03 Mar 2009 at 9:22 am 6

    I would have to go with DeChellis – started with the least amount of talent (IMO), coached ‘em up and had those two nice wins. Be nice if he could beat Ill again.

    As far as Indiana, my wish list is Summers/Allen each hit a few threes, and we get some nice minutes for Ibok, Thornton and even Herzog. I just hope Izzo doesn’t let his friendship with Crean keep him from continuing to work on peaking at the right time.

    I’m still hoping we can make a little push for a #1 seed. Commentators seem to feel the selection comittee will give Oklahoma a lot of credit for Griffin being out, maybe we get the same considerations (Suton & Morgan) if we beat Purdue and do well in the B10 tournament. Plus UConn@Pitt, NC/Duke, and OK/OK St could do a little rearranging.

  7. FWAVon 03 Mar 2009 at 9:34 am 7

    Regarding B10 Coach of the Year, I think that Izzo deserves it if this team wins out; however, it will probably end up in the hands of Bruce Weber. The Illini weren’t expected to compete for a B10 title and they’re in position now to finish either #2 or #3 in the conference.

    Beyond Weber, I think that Carmody, DeChellis, and even Matt Painter all have arguments.

  8. Mark in DCon 03 Mar 2009 at 10:03 am 8

    I’d probably give the nod to DeChellis or Weber – I think both teams have overachieved to an equal degree. That’s usually the MO for the coach of the year, which rules out Izzo and Painter. DeChellis has never won it so I guess I’d give it to him. I believe Weber won in 2005 so give it to the guy without the hardware.

    I can’t believe we have two road games in 3 days – that is just ridiculous scheduling. I suppose other teams have had to deal with it as well but it seems like they could draw up the schedule to avoid these situations. That would probably mean giving up some TV revenue though, which heaven forbid they should even consider. Luckily we’re playing the worst team in the league tonight so even with somewhat tired legs if we don’t take them lightly we should be OK, but it may be closer than it should.

  9. Joeon 03 Mar 2009 at 10:31 am 9

    Ben –

    Northwestern has to be considered the worst basketball school in the conference. Tiny antiquated arena, last B10 title was 75 years ago and have never made the NCAA tournament. PSU has better facilities and has made the tournament 8 times (including this decade). Now you could agrue that because of the size and facilities advantage PSU has over NU (and some other schools in the conference) that it underperforms. I don’t think it should be considered the worst though.

  10. donaldoon 03 Mar 2009 at 11:17 am 10

    We will win tonight by double digits. Walton will make sure his teammates play smothering defense for 40 minutes. He will shut down Dumes in a gesture of friendship to Suton. As much as Lucas is capable of doing on the court, I still believe that Walton is the heart of this team. Our success starts with our defense, and he sets the tone. There will be no letdown tonight. Walton won’t allow it.

  11. Chrison 03 Mar 2009 at 11:32 am 11

    If B10 coach of the year does not go to Izzo, the only other choice is Weber. Carmody has mismanaged too many games to even be considered. NW should have a minumum of three more wins. When I read the stat that Izzo has used 13 different starting lineups I couldn’t believe it. Izzo should win hands down. I’m not trying to be a homer as I have been very critical of Izzo in recent years.

  12. Benon 03 Mar 2009 at 11:48 am 12

    Joe — I see your point. PSU is certainly the most underachieving school, however. Their attendance has been better this year, but their basketball fan base (for a school that large) is putrid.

    Northwestern is interesting. I remember reading in one of the old John Feinstein books (A March to Madness, I think) that Tommy Amaker really wanted the NU job because he thought it could become the Duke of the midwest. I guess, superficially, it’s true. The main thing (both bad and good) about them is their location. If NU were to hire a coach who could _really_ recruit, they could have success simply because of the enormous amount of high school talent in Chicago. On the other hand, it’s hard to take their program seriously when, invariably, 30 – 40% of those who attend their home games during the conference season root for the visiting team.

    On balance, yeah, I’ll agree with you.

  13. Devinon 03 Mar 2009 at 1:50 pm 13

    1) Re: Dan- not Crean
    Crean has been a great motivator, but you can’t give it him yet. And frankly, there’s no way to judge Crean on his X’s and O’s or ability to identify recruits just yet either. Crean’s a year, maybe two away from being in any discussion of this sort.

    2) As for Coach of the Year- I would vote Izzo. Definitely not Weber as Illinois’ improvement hasn’t been that shocking. They were a bit unlucky last year, and this year the Illini are only fourth in Eff. Margin, and that’s including that huge efficiency-skewing home win over IU. I also can’t vote for Carmody over Weber, ’cause Weber took Carmody to school in the last minutes of that NU game. Dechellis has an argument, but with all the injuries suffered by MSU, to walk away with an unshared championship I think you gotta give it to Izzo.

    3) Re: IU game.
    MSU just has a better team than Indiana. It would take a combination of a flat performance by the Sparties and an outstanding performance by our shooters and Tom Pritchard inside (who the refs have really been riding lately) to cause enough problems to win. And our backcourt has to be able to hold on to the ball, or this game is over from the start.

  14. Dylan (umhoops)on 03 Mar 2009 at 2:26 pm 14

    Coach of the year is really tough. I would say Weber gets us just because of the improvement. DeChelis and Carmody did a hell of a job also.

  15. Seeron 03 Mar 2009 at 2:51 pm 15

    I’d go DeChelis over every other non-Izzo option. Carmody would be it if they hadn’t blown so many game at the end.

    I can’t say whether Izzo deserves it without green glasses. Frankly, I thought Dantonio deserved some COTY discussion for how he mentally fixed the MSU football program, but they gave it JoePa without much consideration of anyone else, so who am I to say that an MSU coach does or doesn’t deserve COTY?

    Also, got the DVD in the mail, thanks KJ.