" title="Spartans Weblog">Spartans Weblog

4:00 Sunday.  Assembly Hall, Champaign, Illinois.  CBS.

Let’s start with the numbers:

This game will most likely be decided by how well MSU plays on offense.  Ot the other end of the court, it’s hard to see how Illinois’ offense is going to generate a lot of scoring against us.  Illinois just doesn’t put the ball in the basket efficiently.  More specifically, they rank dead last in the league in 3-point shooting percentage at 31.7%, so they’re unlikely to take advantage of MSU’s tendency to give up (or force, depnding on how you look at it) a lot of shots from beyond the arc.  Trent Meachem is the one guy you have to keep tabs on at all time–although he’s shooting a relatively pedestrian 36.4% on 3-pointers in conference play.

What was true prior to the last meeting between these two teams remains true now:

Beyond that, I think the key to stopping Illinois on offense is forcing them to beat you one-on-one.  They rank first in the entire country in the percentage of their made field goals that are assisted (71.6%).  The switching and hedging on picks will need to be crisp to avoid letting Davis and Tisdale (who’s coming off a 24-point performance against Michigan) get free for open mid-range looks.  Beyond McCamey, none of the Illini players are going to create offense on their own.  The MSU defense has to be disciplined enough to try to force them into making moves they’re not comfortable making.

(Updates: (1) Illinois still ranks first in the country in A/FGM at 70.6%.  (2) Mike Davis has been the more dangerous big man of late, scoring 36 points on 17-25 FG shooting in the last two games.)

The odds are pretty good Illinois won’t get to the 6o-point mark.  So the question is whether MSU’s top-ranked offense can overcome Illinois’ top-ranked defense to get to that mark themselves.

And the key to playing efficiently on offense?  Turnovers, of course.  I’ve recently posited that MSU’s turnover issues are now limited to playing teams with aggressive man-to-man defenses.  And Illinois is one of those teams.  In the first match-up, Illinois forced us to give the ball up 18 times in 66 possessions (27.3%), as the three point guards turned it over a combined 9 times against the ball-hawking defense of Chester Frazier et al.

I’ve argued in the past that you have to make a team that applies a full court press pay by beating the press for easy baskets.  Otherwise, there’s no reason for the opponent not to press you.  The same concept applies to aggressive man-to-man defense.  The defensive pressure is going to disrupt MSU’s set plays.  They have to compensate by creating some easy baskets, either by dribbling past/around pressure or passing the ball to cutting players.  Otherwise, there’s no reason for Illinois not to extend their defense.

This game represents a chance for Kalin Lucas to stake his claim for Big Ten Player of the Year.  If he can direct the MSU offense with poise and, when the opportunity presents itself, use the Illini’s pressure defense against them by driving the lane to create shots around the rim, that will go a long way toward an MSU win.  And let’s hope Durrell Summers’ ankle is really OK, as his quickness and athleticism will be an asset against the pressure on the perimeter.

Illinois simply doesn’t allow easy points–either from the field or from the free throw line.  To score efficiently against them, then, you have to maximize the number of shots you take.  Keeping turnovers down will be a challenge.  Creating second-chance scoring opportunities should come more naturally for MSU.  Rebounding is Illinois’ achilles heel on defense.  Mike Davis leads the way with 6.1 defensive rebounds/game.  Beyond Davis, though, the Illini are susceptible on the boards.  Seven-footer Mike Tisdale averages just 2.3 defensive boards per contest.

Kenpom predicts a 61-59 Illini win in a 63-possession game.  A win would mathematically clinch a share of the Big Ten title and effective clinch an outright title.  If that happens, the team will have definitely earned it.  Beating a team as disciplined as Illinois in the only other Big Ten venue that can match the home environment of the Breslin Center is no small task.

Tags: illinois