" title="Spartans Weblog">Spartans Weblog

A statistical look at Michigan State basketball, with a dash of football talk

Blogpoll Ballot III

Posted by kj on Monday, February 23rd, 2009

Rank Team Delta
1 Pittsburgh 3
2 Connecticut 1
3 Oklahoma 1
4 North Carolina 1
5 Duke 2
6 Memphis 2
7 Michigan St. 1
8 Wake Forest 3
9 Louisville 2
10 Clemson
11 Missouri 2
12 Marquette
13 Villanova 3
14 Kansas 1
15 Arizona St. 1
16 Purdue 4
17 Illinois 4
18 Gonzaga
19 UCLA
20 Washington 3
21 Xavier 4
22 Butler
23 Louisiana St.
24 West Virginia
25 Texas
Last week’s ballot
Dropped Out: Ohio St. (#21), California (#22), Syracuse (#24).

Notes:

  • Top four teams are essentially tied.
  • What do you do with Memphis?  Only 3 losses, but only 3 wins vs. the Sagarin top 50.
  • MSU back in the lead, with 10 wins against the Sagarin top 50.
  • Very hard to sort out the 10 or so major-conference teams with 4 or 5 losses.
  • Normally, I’m an underdog kind of guy.  But the numbers lead me to rank Xavier and Bulter lower than the major polls have had them.

« « Wisconsin Game Recap (2/22/09) | Rankings Update » »

Filed in blogpoll30 responses so far

30 Responses to “Blogpoll Ballot III”

  1. Benon 23 Feb 2009 at 12:26 pm 1

    Not criticizing your ballot, but it’s fairly remarkable that 3 of your top 4 — and 4 of your top 7 — lost last week. (And Duke lost 8 days ago!) This year may produce one of the most exciting NCAA tournaments in recent memory. There’s no team, at this point in the season, which can reasonably be considered head-and-shoulders above the rest.

  2. GBBoundon 23 Feb 2009 at 2:43 pm 2

    What to do about Memphis indeed? Even worse, Memphis has the 2nd worst # of wins against RPI Top 50 teams among the teams IN the RPI top 25 with 3. Only Butler has fewer (and W. Virginia is tied). They also only have 1 win against a RPI top 25 team (#25 Tennessee). Truly horrible resume of a team that is simply winning against low competition. It would be a travesty for them to get a #1 seed.

  3. GBBoundon 23 Feb 2009 at 3:09 pm 3

    One more point about Memphis…I looked back to 1999 to see the lowest # of RPI top 50 wins a #1 seed had. Of the past 40 #1 seeds, only one had 4 top RPI wins, and 4 had 5. The rest had 6 or more. Here is the breakdown:

    Auburn 1999 – 5 RPI top 50 wins – Lost in Sweet 16
    Stanford 2000 – 5 RPI Top 50 wins – Lost in round of 32
    Stanford 2004 – 4 RPI top 50 wins – Lost in round of 32
    St. Joseph’s 2004 – 5 RPI top 50 wins – Lost in Elite 8
    Kansas 2004 – 5 RPI top 50 wins – Lost in Elite 8

    Memphis has one game left against an RPI top 50 opponent (@#39 UAB) before the Conference USA tourney (of which UAB is the only possible RPI top 50 team it will play again).

  4. DP99on 23 Feb 2009 at 6:41 pm 4

    I don’t know, MSU is so inconsistent it’s hard to really imagine them as #7. But I guess I don’t really know where else they should be. It’s kind of a toss up in the 6 to 16 region of the poll. Go down that line and everybody has an embarrassing loss or two, so I don’t what to make of MSU’s embarrassing losses.

    The bad indicator for MSU for me is not that they have 5 losses, it’s that they have 5 losses of the “this shouldn’t have happened this way” variety. You may always get one or two of those even if you are really good, but all 5? All the frontcourt injury/illness+backcourt inconsistency+many young subs+Allen’s psychosis+Gray’s psychosis all adds up to being weird to assume #7, but again I have no idea what else it should be since I’d go with MSU against any other team below them in the list.

  5. The Memphis Edge » Blog Archive » From SpartansWeblog.com: What to do about the Tigerson 24 Feb 2009 at 11:11 am 5

    [...] SpartansWeblog.com: What to do about the Tigers Posted by Gary Robinson They show a CBSSports.com blog poll ballot, where the Tigers are sixth, behind Pitt, UConn, Oklahoma, North Carolina, and [...]

  6. Marc Mensaon 24 Feb 2009 at 11:32 am 6

    of all the teams to question Memphis’ credentials, Sparty should be the last to do so. Michigan State was simply fodder for the Tigers. I don’t think things would change much this year as well.

  7. kjon 24 Feb 2009 at 11:40 am 7

    Last year’s Memphis team was 5-1 against KenPom top-50 nonconference opponents going into the NCAA Tournament. This year’s team is 2-3 against such teams.

    I don’t think you can claim that, as good as they might be, Memphis’ weak conference opposition doesn’t make them hard to evaluate from a national perspective.

  8. Marc Mensaon 24 Feb 2009 at 12:09 pm 8

    Would you like to be the 1 seed that has to play a mis-seeded, disrespected 4-seeded Memphis squad in the 3rd round? Memphis is a better defensive squad this year than last, and has come into their own offensively since January. They completely dismantled Gonzaga in Spokane…something a fully stocked UCONN team couldn’t do, and they have again run rough-shod over their conference. If Memphis is anything less than a 2 seed…barring a late season colapse…then the team will go into the tournament with a chip the size of Houston, Texas on its shoulder.

  9. TigerTimeon 24 Feb 2009 at 1:11 pm 9

    “Memphis has one game left against an RPI top 50 opponent (@#39 UAB) before the Conference USA tourney (of which UAB is the only possible RPI top 50 team it will play again).”

    Actually Memphis could get up to six by NCAA tournament time: Cincy at #53 has a reasonable shot at rotating into the top 50 and Memphis could play UAB in the C-USA championship game. 3+1+2=6

    Anyway, I am a Memphis fan and I don’t think they deserve a #1 seed when you look at the “body of work”. Polls are a waste of time because they are based mostly on who is playing hot right now typically (last 10 games), so I could care less where teams are in the polls.

    Bottom line is right now MSU and Memphis are both 2 seeds. Seeds and location matter, not all that other crap.

  10. GBBoundon 24 Feb 2009 at 2:20 pm 10

    Well, with Monday’s games in the books, Memphis now has exactly zero RPI top 25 wins, as Tennessee fell out of the RPI top 25.

  11. TMadison25on 24 Feb 2009 at 2:33 pm 11

    Marc… When discussing where should teams be seeded, it is completely reasonable to question where a team that is 0-2 against RPI Top 25 should fit. Does Memphis have the talent and coaching to make a run in the tournament? Probably. But their schedule this season doesn’t confirm that they deserve a higher seed than Carolina/Oklahoma/Louisville/etc.

  12. Geneon 24 Feb 2009 at 3:59 pm 12

    I am a Tiger fan and I dont care where they seed or put us. look at Cal’s record in the tourny(of which you msu fans are a part of) and thats where we prove our metal. We lost three first rounders and are still playing at a high level. Let them talk and disrespect, we say “next”!

  13. Chrison 24 Feb 2009 at 3:59 pm 13

    The debate about Memphis is not complicated. Last year they had a freak of nature at the point by the name of Derrick Rose. Tyreke Evans is a good player but not a point guard capable of perfecting the dribble drive motion offense. They have lost to every decent team they have played. Their ranking is based off of last years tourney performance. Look for them to be the first major upset in the tourney.

  14. Robbieon 24 Feb 2009 at 4:56 pm 14

    Chris, us Memphis fans love when we are put into a corner. Seth Davis always picks us to be the first to be upset in the conference and NCAA tourneys yet we’ve won 3 straight C-USA tournaments and have been to (in order) two Elite 8’s and an Nat’l Championship game. Memphis has zero double digit losses (MSU has 3 including one against Maryland) and hasn’t been beat since December. We definitely do not deserve a #1 seed due to the fact that Georgetown and Syracuse have stunk it up this calendar year and Tennessee isn’t the marquis win we were hoping for, but a low #2 seed is deserving. I hope we run into Sparty again this year and put a 50-20 1st half showing against you guys again this year. You have to admit your team isn’t as talented as it was last year either.

  15. kjon 24 Feb 2009 at 5:08 pm 15

    Okeedokee. I’m finding the polltalk to be both intellectually and emotionally unsatisfying.

  16. Chrison 24 Feb 2009 at 5:36 pm 16

    Sorry KJ, one more comment. Robbie, your team is missing the #1 overall pick in the NBA draft, as well as the #33 and #40 pick. We lost a great player in Drew Neitzel, however he was undrafted and is now playing in Europe. I would hardly say we are not as talented as last year. Memphis is without a doubt not as talented as their 07-08 team.

  17. Geneon 24 Feb 2009 at 6:27 pm 17

    Just curious, speaking of quality wins, who has the Spartans beat??? Kansas at home and mediocre at best Texas team is all I see. Not only that but you got blown out by North Carolina and Purdue then lost to two bad teams in Penn st and Northwestern. Hardly a resume I would want to hold up. Chris, your right. Memphis is not as talented as last year and we win in a totally different manner also. Last years team was predicated on offense with this year’s team built on defense. This is why I think Cal did his best coaching job of his career this year. Until CUSA catches up to Memphis or we bolt for a better conference, this is what we are left with. Unlike some teams, we at least beat the teams we are supposed to beat. So just like the last three years, discount our accomplishments, just hope you don’t play us in the NCAA’S.

  18. Benon 24 Feb 2009 at 6:46 pm 18

    Looks like we’re talking about Memphis in one comment thread, and politics in the other. Good times!

  19. SpartanDanon 25 Feb 2009 at 2:09 am 19

    “Just curious, speaking of quality wins, who has the Spartans beat???”

    Eight teams in Sagarin’s top 50, that’s who (two of them twice). Kansas (top 10), Illinois, Texas (top 25), Wisconsin, OSU x2, Minnesota x2, Oklahoma State, and Michigan. That’s more top 50 wins than anyone else has, and more than triple the number of top 50 wins Memphis has.

    Memphis has been more consistent, but they’ve also had fewer injuries (MSU’s finally getting healthy), and fewer legitimate opportunities to stumble (Memphis has had 13 games against teams outside Pomeroy’s top 100, MSU has faced 8). If MSU plays like they’re capable of playing, they can beat anyone.

  20. Ryanon 25 Feb 2009 at 12:27 pm 20

    Memphis #1 seed, please!

    If a team like North Dakota State or Portland State ends up on the 16 line, it would be the most likely 1/16 upset since Holy Cross vs. Kansas seven or so years ago. Plus, that Murray State/MSU game would no longer be the worst ever.

    Not because Memphis is bad, but because they have 624 (approx.) conference victories in a row. They’ve GOT to be coasting. There are a couple possible sixteen seeds that would be fifth or sixth place teams (at worst) in CUSA. Last years team was talented enough to take a couple games to flip the switch. This year’s team isn’t. They are good enough to make a run, but I don’t think they would be firing on all cylinders for, say, Long Beach State, and that’s dangerous.

  21. Ryanon 25 Feb 2009 at 12:47 pm 21

    Caveat: This is all if the Tigers can avoid inciting riots at the club and beating their girlfriends for like three more weeks.

  22. kjon 25 Feb 2009 at 12:49 pm 22

    Easy there. It we’re going to cast aspersions upon other basketball teams, let’s at least stick to teams currently on our schedule.

  23. Marc Mensaon 25 Feb 2009 at 3:54 pm 23

    Actually, Memphis does not have to be as good as they were last year to beat Michigan State. No doubt last years team was truly special, but this years squad is getting there. Derrick Rose was not the “freak” in November and December that he was in March; and Tyreke Evans is now comfortably easing into his role. Memphis will be one of those teams contending for the national title yet again. Memphis has traditionally fared pretty good against Big 10 squads, so hopefully we’ll get another shot in the second round. Good luck.

  24. DP99on 25 Feb 2009 at 4:20 pm 24

    kj ranked Memphis one spot above MSU. This means he still gives the edge to Memphis. Memphis happens to have an apparently weaker schedule so far. Memphis 08-09 is not as good as Memphis 07-08, as you’ve stated, and as is plainly evident since Memphis 07-08 would have been an all-timer if not for the last 5 minutes of regulation and OT against Kansas. If both teams win out, outcomes that would be completely independent of each other, they’ll both likely end up as 2-seeds. Still, the 08-09 team is thought to be ahead of MSU here. What exactly is the beef?

  25. Mark in Chicagoon 25 Feb 2009 at 7:50 pm 25

    Because I like to stir the pot,

    Over/under on Memphis wins in tourney: 2.5
    Over/under on MSU wins in tourney: 2.5

    pick ‘em

  26. SpartanDanon 25 Feb 2009 at 8:46 pm 26

    Tough call on both, Mark. I’m thinking over for Memphis (about 50-50 in the Sweet 16 in a 2-3 game, but if their region’s 3 seed gets upset they’re probably winning that one) and over for MSU, but I’m not remotely certain of either. MSU’s shown more inconsistency (which makes it easier for an upset loss to happen), but I’m not sure how much of that is due to injuries – if we’ve got everyone healthy, I like our chances for a Final Four trip. Memphis, on the other hand, seems less likely to trip up against a mediocre tourney team but probably has a lower ceiling.

  27. Geneon 26 Feb 2009 at 1:28 am 27

    That’s real classy Ryan. When you can’t win the basketball argument, turn to name calling and racist comments. And too be accurate, that was last years team when some of those issues happened. You know the ones that ended your season by pounding you into submission in one half. We hear this same smack from the sec teams we pound on a regular basis. One thing for sure, we will both be in the tourney and will have a chance to prove our worth. Like I said, 1, 2, or 3 seed, we don’t care. Memphis may be in a weak conference but the upside of that is every night we play it’s the other teams biggest game of the year. You guys have to admit, that’s a lot of pressure. Tune into the UAB-Memphis game tomorrow night and tell me its not a great college environment that any Big 10 team would have trouble winning in. By the way, you guys only watched Memphis at the end last year (because we were still playing and you were not) If you had watched all year, CDR (Chris Douglas Roberts) was the key to that team, not Rose. Rose got hot in the tourney but CDR was the heart of that team and the reason they were in position for a #1 seed. Let’s hope for a rematch this year, I know we are.

  28. SpartanDanon 26 Feb 2009 at 2:46 am 28

    “Memphis may be in a weak conference but the upside of that is every night we play it’s the other teams biggest game of the year. You guys have to admit, that’s a lot of pressure.”

    Yes, every game is the other team’s biggest game of the year. But to assume that everyone in the Big Ten views MSU as “just another game” is nuts. It may not be the only big game on their schedule – but for a team playing for its tournament life, any chance to pick up a big win for the resume is a big game, and MSU is the biggest name of all in the Big Ten. And even if it is “just another game”, Minnesota, Ohio State, or Penn State would probably put up a tougher fight than an amped-up Tulane or Marshall team.

    Memphis is obviously a good team – you don’t win 18 in a row, even against mostly mediocre-to-bad teams, purely by dumb luck. But after the first round, you don’t get to play even mediocre teams in the NCAA tournament – and unlike last year, there are reasons to be skeptical about how they’ll perform when faced with real competition.

  29. Ryanon 26 Feb 2009 at 10:50 am 29

    kj – Sorry. Fair enough. I don’t consider police reports on players still on scholarship “aspersions”, but consider it a one-time, Calipari-based thing.

    I will defend myself against charges of racism, however. I’m not familiar with any race that makes domestic violence acceptable. If you know of one, you’ve got a problem. Was it a cheap shot, and not particularly germane to the discussion? Yes. Racist? Definitely not.

  30. Geneon 27 Feb 2009 at 12:00 am 30

    Ok, Ryan then what domestic violence are you referring to?? If it was the incident with Robert Dozier, you need to check your facts. All charges were dropped and the same “girl” had made similar charges against “four” separate men (boys) over a two year period. Now I am not near as clever as you Big 10 guys, but some would call that a pattern. That is why the case was dismissed with prejudice. If you are going to sling mud, check your facts dillweed. Memphis just polished off UAB (39 rpi before the game) rather easily with Evans having his worst game of the year. Big 10 transfer Robert Vaden; leading scorer in our weak conference went 0-17 from the field. Keep talking fellas. This team does it with defense and a different guy every night. They are on a mission. Like I said before, would love to see a little 10 team any time in the tourney. Just like last year Spartan fans, another Beat Down.