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A statistical look at Michigan State basketball, with a dash of football talk


Purdue Game Recap (2/17/09)

Posted by kj on Tuesday, February 17th, 2009

Purdue wallops MSU 72-54 in a 70-possession game.  StatSheet box score.

After 3 of MSU’s 4 losses, I’ve downplayed the result.  I’m not going to downplay tonight’s loss.  MSU’s performance was extremely disappointing, both in terms of their lack of composure and their inability to take advantage of Purdue’s weaknesses.  The two sets of bars on the left side of this graph are u-g-l-y:

MSU’s lack of composure is shown both by the horrific turnover percentage and by the tentativeness in shooting from the perimeter.  Kalin Lucas, who was (rightly) named the front runner for Big Ten Player of the Year by Dan Shulman early in the game, epitomized these problems.  He turned the ball over 6 times and made just 2 of 11 shots from the field.  The fact that he lost his composure, getting rattled by Lewis Jackson’s quickness, is perhaps the most disappointing aspect of this loss.  Izzo pulled Lucas for a long stretch in the second half, allowing Korie Lucious to run the team during a period MSU still had a chance to get back into the game.

Additional expressions of disappointment in bulletpoint form:

  • I’ve never seen such a series of poor entry passes–partially caused by Purdue savvy post defense.
  • A 37.5% offensive rebounding percentage doesn’t get you anything if you can’t turn those offensive boards into points.
  • Same thing with forcing a bunch of turnovers early.
  • Brilliant use of Robbie Hummel by Matt Painter.  He gave them a spark early, knocking down two 3-pointers to give the team some confidence shooting the ball.  He didn’t play as much in the second half, presumably because his back started bothering him.  But he’d already made the contribution he needed to.  (Note: With most players shooting 3-pointers, I can tell immediately when the ball leaves their hand whether the shot is good.  Not so with Hummel.  Every shot looks good leaving his hands.  It’s a miracle when the shot doesn’t drop.)
  • The Hightower-led officiaing crew was, of course, painful to watch once again.  But you can’t blame the offiiciating for this loss.  We ended up shooting 2 more free throws than they did.  Kalin Lucas shot 12 of our 20 free throw attempts; I thought he got the benefit of a couple questionable calls, too.  He couldn’t stop using his off arm against Jackson.
  • Chris Kramer: 6 rebounds, 3 steals, 2 blocks.  He’s exactly the player Purdue needs him to be: a combo point guard/power forward.
  • How does Lewis Jackson pull down 6 rebounds?
  • JaJuan Johnson was as good as advertised.  17 points on 7 FG attempts.  He’s gotta be right in the conversation for conference player of the year.
  • Hard to find a bright spot for MSU on offense.  Durrell Summers, I guess.  He, at least, didn’t look intimidated.  And Suton was Suton: 10 and 7 rebounds.  Three turnovers for both players, though.  In fact, a total of 5 MSU players turned it over at least 3 times.
  • Raymar Morgan looked like he could make a difference early, but obviously ran out of gas.  1-5 FG shooting in 14 minutes.  Hopefully, another 4 days of recovery time will mean he can contribute more against Wisconsin.
  • I really don’t know what to say about Chris Allen at this point.  His decision making is completely out of whack.  He puts the ball on the floor when he should shoot, and he shoots when he should put the ball on the floor.  Not sure how to fix that.  Izzo can’t give up on him because we need a consistent 3-point shooting threat beyond Summers.

Bottom line: It’s gonna be a good old-fashioned dogfight for the conference title.  Nothing worth having comes easy, as the cliche’ goes.

I hope this game turns out to be an anomaly (Morgan still not 100%; playing one of  the elite defensive teams in the country on the road).  But we can’t afford any more anomalies from here on out.

Next up: Our Badger friends visit the Breslin Center Sunday afternoon (3:00, ESPN).

Filed in big ten, game recap23 responses so far

23 Responses to “Purdue Game Recap (2/17/09)”

  1. FWAVon 17 Feb 2009 at 11:08 pm 1

    Couldn’t agree more. I wrote off the NW and PSU losses as flukes, but tonight’s walloping is the first time I’ve really worried about this team. They’ve had their worst games against their two best opponents (UNC and Purdue).

    Izzo has talked a lot about this team not yet reaching its potential. Sadly, I don’t think we’re going to get to find out where that ceiling is.

  2. T-Millon 17 Feb 2009 at 11:25 pm 2

    I think it was just an off night for you guys. I know the game up in East Lansing will be tough. I was at this one and the officiating was poor both ways, so don’t feel bad. It’s like they couldn’t decide when to call real contact, sot hey called ticky-tack stuff.

    See you in a few weeks!

  3. Crowon 17 Feb 2009 at 11:31 pm 3

    State played their worst game
    Purdue played their best game
    State was Hightowered

    I’m not worried.

    Purdue played great D, but State will adapt. We make a few more shots, and things change drastically. Kalin will be fine, and I hope to see us attach much more – kramer included. Just have to be smart, as anytime that guy hits the floor it’s a guaranteed offensive foul.

    State will win @ the Bres’

  4. Con-Ton 18 Feb 2009 at 12:36 am 4

    I’ll start with the disclaimer – officiating obviously did not cost MSU this game. That being said, however, I think Purdue took advantage of a situation I’ve seen before. If a team comes out playing so aggressive and physical on defense that literally every player is fouling on every possession, it puts the officials in a quandary. If they don’t put a stop to it immediately, then that pattern becomes the baseline and the only calls made are either random events or truly flagrant. That’s what happened tonight and the advantage in that case goes to the aggressive team. I might have thought a Hightower-led crew would have leapt at the chance to start blowing whistles early and often, but it didn’t happen. Both teams got the benefit of some questionable calls and Purdue was able to mug and molest MSU more or less unhindered. This kind of thing is not uncommon in the Big Ten but doesn’t really help them on the national stage.

  5. Benon 18 Feb 2009 at 12:56 am 5

    I don’t understand the disparaging of Purdue in many comments near the end of the open thread. They were _tremendous_ defensively, and JaJuan Johnson is bona fide; the whole team is for real. The referees didn’t beat us, and we didn’t beat ourselves. Purdue beat us. Badly. Hopefully we’ll figure out a way to turn the tables when we see them again in a few weeks.

  6. boilerdowdon 18 Feb 2009 at 2:03 am 6

    Great write-up, KJ; good statistical analysis.

    I had a friend of mine get me tickets that were close to the action…and the game was physical, for both Purdue and MSU. The officiating was lousy as we’ve all come to expect in this league, but the lemmings that hint at blaming the officials for this one are foolish. Purdue took MSU out of their game and ground the more-talented Spartans down.

    MSU, up close (like on TV), looks very talented and very strong…and as far as I can see, the Spartans are still the clear favorite for the BT title. Tonight was an exception to what most have come to expect from MSU…and I’m pretty sure Izzo will have his troops geeked, and well-prepared in 17 days when Purdue visits East Lansing.

  7. witless chumon 18 Feb 2009 at 7:00 am 7

    Much yellling and screaming. They did look like Purdue completely had them flumoxed with the pressure, which has happended before in recent Purdue games.

  8. Chrison 18 Feb 2009 at 8:00 am 8

    Izzo is an unbelievable coach, but stubborn as a mule. His offense is built around complex set plays that set up a quality shot. It was obvious in the first 4 minutes of the game that plan would not work the way the game was being called. Keep the offense simple, a couple passes, ball screen, then shoot. The longer you hold onto the ball the more you have a chance at a turnover. And for those worried about Purdue getting away with murder, the refs will eventually catch on. It happened with State in 99-01 and Wisky until recently. The NBA even had to modify their rules because of the Pistons defense.

  9. TMadison25on 18 Feb 2009 at 8:11 am 9

    A little baffled at the responses. Is anyone really surprised? A healthy Purdue team is a top 10 team. It’s the type of defensive-oriented team that has caused the Spartan offense to go deer-in-headlights in recent years. Looking at the schedule going into B10 play, this had to have been the game most picked we would lose. 5 days until Wisconsin. Time to pick it back up and prepare for Wisky and Illinois at Champaign, a game the Spartans can win if they aren’t rattled.

  10. Jasonon 18 Feb 2009 at 8:12 am 10

    Quit whining about the refs. We played bad and got what we deserved. Time to buck up and realize what it takes to be an elite team. I think Izzo is still going to have everybody ready when it counts.

  11. kjon 18 Feb 2009 at 8:32 am 11

    One other disappointment: the lack of a plan to stick to Hummel like glue. We knew they’d try to get him some good 3-point looks early. But we had Suton and Roe drifting inside the 3-point arc and then lunging out if he got the ball. I don’t know what the solution was (go small; switch on all screens, even if a big man is defending the player), but the strategy we went in with was bound to fail.

  12. kjon 18 Feb 2009 at 8:33 am 12

    And thanks to T-Mills and Boilerdowd for stopping by. Classy comments. We’re all looking forward to the rematch already.

  13. Chrison 18 Feb 2009 at 9:08 am 13

    Tickets are still available for the Purdue game at msuspartans.com. They are last row behind the basket.

  14. huberton 18 Feb 2009 at 9:11 am 14

    I agree with the general tone of the comments above, on the refs, on Lucas losing his composure, On Allen’s complete loss of confidence, on Izzo’s stubborness and unwillingness to adapt the game plan. Is Purdue a great team? They played like one last night, at least in the second half (let’s be clear: MSU should have been up by ten at the half) — but the team that barely beat Northwest or got beat at home by Illinois was not a great team.

    two things that did not get remarked upon: first, this was the first game where I thought Roe was intimidated, and he played one of his poorer games.

    And second, what was with the 6 offensive fouls? My own sense is that 2,3 of those were great acting on the part of the defender. I also note that the Spartans never do the same show of “falling backward exaggeratedly” to draw the foul. It’s as if they were trained not to; and as a result, it seems like they hardly ever get those calls.

    I agree with KJ that this defeat makes you wonder about the Spartans and their resilience and focus.

  15. Mark in DCon 18 Feb 2009 at 9:22 am 15

    I’ll give Lucas a pass on the off arm because he was being crowded – the calls could have gone either way so I think in most cases no calls were the right call if they’re going to let that stuff go for both teams. That said, we got flat out beat by Purdue and it had nothing to do with the refs. MSU used to be a team that thrived when the refs were letting stuff go – what happened to that toughness?

    A couple of pet peeves that have recurred all season: the charges have to stop. Whenever Allen or Summers drive the lane they absolutely telegraph their intention to get to the rim no matter who is in their way or how good their position is. I can see the charge coming from 10 feet away. That has to stop – if you can’t get to the rim without bowling someone over pull up for a short jumper or bring it back out and re-set. Those charges are as bad as turnovers and they have been happening all year long. Second – we better get better against pressure because that is exactly the type of D that ACC teams like to play, and we’re sure to see it in the tourney.

    All in all I think we came out sluggish and out of sync due to the week off, and got rattled when we couldn’t hit those chip shots in the first half. Part of it was the pressure D but we really missed a bunch of gimmes that we should have had. We really need the outside shooting to come around again – this is the third game in a row where we have barely been able to buy a bucket from outside with the exception of Summers. I know Purdue plays excellent D, but it isn’t good enough to hold us to less than 40 percent shooting on an average night.

    Not sure what to do about Allen – he is completely out of sync. I’m tempted to give his minutes to anyone else we have on the roster (Thornton?) who can play decent perimeter D and hit some outside shots until he gets his head straight. I’m really worried about our outside shooting – this is the third game in a row where our 3 point shooting percentage was below 30 percent. I’m reasonably satisfied with our post players but they are not going to carry the offense on their own. We really need to rediscover our balance on offense.

  16. Boilerzz94on 18 Feb 2009 at 11:56 am 16

    I’m glad I found this blog as it’s one of the more reasonable I’ve come across. Of course, I’m not surprised as it’s being written by a MSU fan, and I’ve always had more respect for your program and fanbase than any other in the Big Ten.

    I’m also glad that most have dismissed the officiating as the reason for the loss. When a game ends, one of the first things I check is the fouls called and the free throws shot. MSU committed 2 more fouls and shot two more free throws. Neither is out of hand IMO as both teams are known for their physical defense. You want unreasonable, check the Purdue-Oklahoma box score (28-15 on fouls and 46-5 on free throw attempts…both in favor of Oklahoma).

    Even though I know that a loss by MSU to the Illini would likely enhance our chances of a Big Ten title, I’d rather you thump them in Champaign. I’d much rather have a shot at sharing the title with you than have to share it with Illinois. That said, feel free to lose to Wisky this weekend!!

  17. donaldoon 18 Feb 2009 at 5:24 pm 17

    We beat ourselves. It wasn’t due to the officiating crew. The most disappointing aspect of this loss is that we had a week to prepare for Purdue and our offense was, to put it mildly, sluggish.
    My sense is that Lucas has to much more of a playmaker. He is taking too many shots at the expense of getting others involved. He does well driving and drawing fouls- that he should continue. But he needs to be far more selective, as he was against Michigan, with his shots. In the last five games he is 21-69, a 30% shooting percentage, with 16 assists and 16 turnovers. That’s a far cry from the 5-l assist to turnover ratio earlier in the year.

    All I can say about Allen is if his name were Gray, he’d be getting about 3 minutes a game.

    Hopefully these guys will regroup for Sunday. Wisconsin is a critical game, and almost a must win.

  18. Spartalyticalon 18 Feb 2009 at 6:31 pm 18

    A lot of great comments here. Officiating was terrible in the first half, but honestly, the majority of those bad calls were well in our favor. We were given lots of breaks, and still screwed it.

    After the first half, I wasn’t feeling too bad. Izzo read my mind with his comments to Erin Andrews on the way to the locker room. Offensively, State looked decent but they just weren’t making layups. Not that that’s an acceptable problem, but it’s one with a relatively easy fix and one that will even out with time. Turnovers were high, but we were fortunate to be down only three.

    Then the second half started and I crapped all over my couch as this team fell apart HARD. Turnovers were breeding like rabbits and Purdue just got tougher. Schulman captured the entire game with a comment to the effect of “Purdue’s got a guy with a broken nose, a guy who’s throwing up on the sideline, and a guy with a broken back and they’re STILL up on a top-five team by a dozen points.” Good lord. Why can’t our guys play like Kramer or Jackson when they’re not 100%?

    Agree on Allen. He was completely useless last night, and the comment regarding his shooting when he should drive and his driving when he should shoot was dead on. Just terrible, terrible decisions all evening long in the backcourt.

    Very disappointing all around. We had a week to prepare. We held our own destiny (still do, for now) and choked away an opportunity to take on our main competitor and help put the conference championship to bed. Sure it was on the road – but that’s been a great place for us this year, inexplicably. We’ve laid fat stinkers in Mackey the last couple years and this was a chance to put those memories away. There was so much going for us in this game, so many reasons to be ready to come out flying, but the Spartans took a huge, 40-minute crap right at center court. HUGE disappointment.

  19. Spartalyticalon 18 Feb 2009 at 6:46 pm 19

    How could I forget – especially in light of the great comments from our Boiler brethren – Purdue played great last night. Their defense was amazing, intensity was tangible, and they were the better team in just about every way last night. I kept wondering how on earth they’re ranked 21st, or whatever. No way. You get everyone healthy (heck, just get everyone to show up at a game even when they’re NOT healthy) and they’re easily top ten. While I believe MSU is top ten as well, they weren’t even close last night. We stunk it up and played terribly, but Purdue played just as impressively in the other direction.

  20. Joeon 18 Feb 2009 at 8:34 pm 20

    Brad Van Pelt died. Sad say for Spartans everywhere.

  21. TMadison25on 18 Feb 2009 at 9:03 pm 21

    Penn St. wins an offensively challenged battle in Champaign! Teams combined to shoot 28 of 99.

  22. Benon 18 Feb 2009 at 9:12 pm 22

    Oh man, 38-33? Makes Iowa last year look like a Loyola Marymount game.

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