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A statistical look at Michigan State basketball, with a dash of football talk

Michigan Game Preview: Choose-Your-Own-Adventure Edition

Posted by kj on Monday, February 9th, 2009

7:00 Tuesday.  Crisler Arena.  ESPN.

A lot of ground has all ready been covered in the Q&As posted here and on Dylan’s site.  So I am going to take a different approach to this game preview.  And by “different,” I mean “less time/effort-intensive on my part.”  I’ve posted the tempo-free data for the two teams below and will let you, the reader, do the rest of the work.

All numbers below are based on conference-only data.  Rankings are among the 11 Big Ten teams.

When MSU Has the Ball

MSU Off Rk UM Def Rk
PPP 1.12 1 1.03 7
TO% 21.1 7 20.2 4
eFG% 50.2 6 53.6 10
FTR 38.2 2 28.9 4
OffReb% 45.6 1 27.7 4
  • MSU’s only two games in conference play with a TO% over 23% were the back-to-back home games against Illinois and Northwestern.
  • Our 3-point shooting has been hit or miss: 4 conference games with a 3-point % above 45.0%, 4 games with a 3-point % below 30.0%.
  • Conference opponents are shooting 53.5% on 2-point attempts vs. Michigan, reflecting their undersized lineup.
  • MSU’s free throw rate had been on the decline with Raymar Morgan playing limited/no minutes.  But the posted FT rates in the high 40’s in both games this past week.  (On that note, check out the graphs at the bottom of this page; nifty new feature Robbie was nice enough to add for me.)
  • Michigan rebounds the ball better on defense than I would have expected.  Only one conference opponent has posted an OffReb% above 40%.  Manny Harris is averaging 5.6 defensive rebounds/game.

When Michigan Has the Ball

UM Off Rk MSU Def Rk
PPP 0.99 6t 0.96 3
TO% 18.6 5 20.1 5
eFG% 47.1 10 48.6 4
FTR 26.9 10 35.1 7
OffReb% 29.2 6 26.1 3
  • Michigan has taken at least 22 three-pointers in every conference game.  In sum, they’ve taken 57 more 3-point shots than any other team in the conference, but are shooting the second lowest percentage (30.7%).  Michigan’s top six players in terms of 3-pointers attempted are all shooting under 33.0% in conference play.
  • Meanwhile, MSU is forcing the second highest number of 3-point attempts in the conference, with opponents making only 32.1% of those attempts.
  • Only 4 Michigan players are shooting at least one free throw per game (vs. 8 for MSU).
  • MSU is actually forcing some turnovers of late; the last five opponents have all had TO percentages above 20.0%.  Travis Walton has 9 steals over that time period; Goran Suton has 8.
  • In the last 8 games, Manny Harris has scored 20+ points in 4 games, but scored in single digits in 3 other games.
  • Stu Douglas has scored 33 points on 9-15 three-point shooting in Michigan’s last two games.

Kenpom predicts a 71-66 MSU win in a 65-possession game.

Coffee Talk: Based on the numbers, what do you see as the keys to the game?  Which MSU player(s) are you looking to have a big game?  What’s your prediction for the outcome?

P.S. To give you fair warning, I’m going down to Ann Arbor to watch the game in person.  So the open thread will be unsupervised.  Depending on your perspective, this will either make things a lot less fun or a lot more fun.

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Filed in coffee talk, game preview24 responses so far

24 Responses to “Michigan Game Preview: Choose-Your-Own-Adventure Edition”

  1. Spartybasketballon 09 Feb 2009 at 10:43 pm 1

    The key to the game will be which team brings their A game on offense.

    Can Michigan find their stroke from behind the three point line? If Michigan shoots over 40% from distance, it will be a long night for the Spartans.

    Can either Durrell Summers or Chris Allen provide a spark for the Spartans? Will we have the dropsies and turn the ball over carelessly? If we can get one of the guys mentioned above to perform well and we limit our turnovers to 15 or less, we’ll win the game.

  2. rook34on 09 Feb 2009 at 11:56 pm 2

    My thoughts are as follows:

    1. We want the game. Michigan has to have it.

    2. Michigan is at home.

    3. Our best player is missing.

    4. Hightower is officiating.

    Not saying we can’t get it done, but that is one tall order.

  3. spartanproduceron 10 Feb 2009 at 1:27 am 3

    Hightower (while he does suck) shouldn’t be your main worry, Donnie Gray should be. That clown reffed the last two trips to Ann Arbor and led to quite a foul disparity.

    The key?? other than the obvious (our ability to crush them on the boards and their 3 point shooting) is our focus and poise. While everyone focuses the PSU loss on Talor Battle, we also lost our focus at the end of the first half and midway through the second. A few more baskets would have stopped both PSU runs and changed the outcome.

    Play through their early emotion, stay poised when they make a few threes (which they will) and use our advantages, size and strength inside, and a quick point guard that they can’t stop.

  4. Game 25: Michigan State at Michigan Preview | UM Hoops.comon 10 Feb 2009 at 7:22 am 4

    [...] Michigan Game Preview: Choose-Your-Own-Adventure Edition KJ breaks down the stats [...]

  5. TMadison25on 10 Feb 2009 at 7:58 am 5

    Spartans need to show up with some confidence on not get rattled on the road. So far, so good this year.

    Not sure if anyone mentioned this but Gary Parrish at CBS defends the Big Ten (well, OSU and MSU) in the polls this week.

    http://www.cbssports.com/mcc/b.....4/13492202

    U of M and their live-by-the-three mentality and our vulnerability against hot three-point shooters has to be the key. Hopefully we can take advantage of other areas to make up for any advantage on the perimeter.

  6. kjon 10 Feb 2009 at 9:03 am 6

    Discussion question: How worried are people about Roe matching up with a smaller U-M player? Do you think he takes advantage inside more than he gets taken advantage of on the perimeter?

  7. Zekeon 10 Feb 2009 at 9:05 am 7

    Keys to the game:

    3 point defense- I want a Spartan defender within elbow range of every Wolverine beyond the arc. This will force bad shots, 2 point jump shots, and frustration fouls- all good things.

    3 point threat- I want triples to rain down from Allen, Summers, & Lucas. This will boost team confidence, negate the Wolverines’ strength, and take the crowd out of it- all good things.

    Player to watch:

    Goran Suton- Suton should be able to clean up on the glass and take over in the post against the smaller Skunkbear frontcourt.

    Is it too much to ask for another 25+ point blowout? Hey, I can hope.
    Go Green!

  8. Chrison 10 Feb 2009 at 9:32 am 8

    This game comes down to how the game is officiated. If Hightower & the crew call touch fouls, we lose. If they allow us to pay good physical man to man defense, we win. If the free throw rate & turnover precentage are even close, State wins convincingly.

  9. Mark in DCon 10 Feb 2009 at 9:34 am 9

    I think the key is whether we have finally figured out how to score efficiently against the 1-3-1 zone. Offensive efficiency wasn’t really the main problem against PSU, which is a good sign. In that game it was our D that basically let us down (and freakishly good shooting). Still, that defense has given us some trouble this year and the key will be whether we’ve finally learned how to attack it with confidence.

    Our rebounding and 2 point scoring have been pretty consistent all year long. For the most part, with the notable exceptions of the NW and PSU games, we have played pretty good perimeter D. We need that to continue, obviously, in this game given the number of 3s they take. As KJ noted, our 3 point shooting has been up and down and is the least consistent part of our offense. If we can get hot outside shooting from at least two of the Lucas/Summers/Allen trio, we should win fairly easily, as U of M will have to extend their D at which point our size advantage should pay dividens.

    I think Roe has the quickness/athleticism to play good perimeter D for a guy his size, but he hasn’t had much experience with it at the college level so far. Hopefully he’s a quick study in that regard because he will probably have to spend some time guarding on the perimeter.

    I agree that we have to match their intensity. Thankfully, we just played an even half against Indiana. That was hopefully enough to remind the team that not every game is going to be as easy as that Minnesota blowout. That’s the problem with those easy blowout wins – they give you a false sense of how good you are.

  10. donaldoon 10 Feb 2009 at 9:50 am 10

    To me, it all starts on the defensive end. Are we making Michigan use a lot of the clock and take poor shots, or are we giving them space on the perimeter and somebody gets hot.

    Offensively, Lucas has to show great leadership. He has been shooting lots lately, but hasn’t been shooting well. He needs to orchestrate the offense in a way that he creates good opportunities for others, and when he shoots, it is when he has good looks or breaks down the defense.

  11. Chrison 10 Feb 2009 at 9:58 am 11

    I found it amusing that Dylan thinks Izzo is lying about Raymar. He acts like this is our biggest game of the year. Dylan, we have bigger games to look forward to. We are not going to jeopardize Raymar’s health when we have a big game against Purdue and a tournament skunk bear fans are not familiar with coming up in March.

  12. Dylan @ UMHoopson 10 Feb 2009 at 11:13 am 12

    Not necessarily saying he is lying but I wouldn’t be shocked if he plays.

  13. Dylan @ UMHoopson 10 Feb 2009 at 11:15 am 13

    Also, I believe Neitzel played last year or the year before against Michigan with some kind of illness right? IV during the day? Don’t remember the details.

  14. Chrison 10 Feb 2009 at 11:40 am 14

    Dylan, your right. Neitzel came off the bench and played limited minutes. It seemed like you were insinuating that Izzo will do whatever he can to get Morgan on the court. If he does play he will be mostly ineffective. It will be interesting to see if UM makes this a rivalry again. I would actually like to see UM get better as long as Izzo still gets the recruits he wants. It sounds like Belein is getting most of his recruits out of state, similar to Rich Rod. It appears that we are headed to a healthy rivalry in football and basketball for the first time in ages.

  15. Seeron 10 Feb 2009 at 11:41 am 15

    That was a cold or the flu. Morgan has Pneumonia/Mono. I believe it was also Neitzel’s last opportunity to play against Michigan.

  16. Dylanon 10 Feb 2009 at 11:46 am 16

    It was this game his junior year: http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/.....=270580130

    I’m not a doctor but I believe last week Izzo was talking about Ray missing the week but thought he could be back for Michigan. Now he’s talking about conditioning issues a little bit.. that means he is getting better to me.

  17. Chrison 10 Feb 2009 at 12:09 pm 17

    Check out the free throw rate from the 05-06 game. Unreal.

    http://statsheet.com/mcb/games.....ichigan-72

  18. kjon 10 Feb 2009 at 12:23 pm 18

    My guess is that:

    (1) Morgan will do everything he can to try to get in the game.

    (2) Izzo will resist the urge and so he can rest through the bye this weekend.

  19. magonuson 10 Feb 2009 at 1:00 pm 19

    Chris – The really ridiculous bit about that game was the amount the the refs allowed State to grab, charge and reach in without blowing the whistle. If they had been unbiased, Michigan likely would’ve had at least another 10 FT attempts.

  20. SpartanDanon 10 Feb 2009 at 1:04 pm 20

    Chris: I remember that game all too well. I nearly put my hat through my friend’s TV. (And I’m honestly surprised the FT rate was that low for Michigan; I remember them being in the bonus shortly after the first media timeout.)

  21. SpartanDanon 10 Feb 2009 at 1:05 pm 21

    Magonus – you were obviously not watching the same game as the rest of us. Petway threw an elbow at Ager after a dunk; no call. We so much as look at the guy with the ball funny, and it’s a foul.

  22. DP99on 10 Feb 2009 at 1:31 pm 22

    I’m pretty amazed at how Beilein has been able to get his players to keep the turnovers down. Dylan points out that 3-point shooting and low turnovers are his points of emphasis, but EVERY coach emphasizes low turnovers. That Beilien is accomplishing this with a junior forward, a sophomore guard who was an out-of-control tornado a year ago, and 38 freshmen is very impressive.

  23. Chrison 10 Feb 2009 at 1:32 pm 23

    Every recap of that game talked about UM being the more aggressive team. Paul Davis made a pretty aggressive move to the basket in the final seconds and was creamed, no foul called. We were crushing UM until the whistles started to blow.

  24. Chrison 10 Feb 2009 at 9:57 pm 24

    Weird game. Skunk bears had a better offensive rebounding %. We hold them to 39% effective fg percentage. I thought we would win convincingly if we were close in the ft proficiency and turnovers. A sub-par rebounding day against one of the worst rebounding teams was neutralized that. Oh well. A win is a win and the skunk bears have a shot for a NIT championship!