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A statistical look at Michigan State basketball, with a dash of football talk

Monday Night Musings: Four Factors Edition

Posted by kj on Monday, January 26th, 2009

Rankings Update

That loss to Northwestern didn’t hurt too much in any of the rankings.  In the human polls, four teams (Syracuse, Clemson, Georgetown, UCLA) that were just behind MSU last week all lost this week, as well.  And the numbers-based ratings all think Northwestern is a top-50 team.

Monday Night Links

Bonus Link with Bonus Analysis

The Artist Formerly Known As The Big Ten Wonk has his first “Conference Check” of the season up at Basketball Prospectus.  Here are your Big Ten tempo-free numbers:

                                     Opp.
                     Pace    PPP     PPP      EM
1.  Illinois         62.6    1.04    0.91   +0.13
2.  Michigan St.     63.0    1.12    1.02   +0.10
3.  Purdue           64.6    1.02    0.92   +0.10
4.  Wisconsin        60.1    1.06    1.03   +0.03
5.  Minnesota        63.8    1.02    1.00   +0.02
6.  Penn St.         62.0    1.05    1.04   +0.01
7.  Michigan         60.7    1.03    1.04   -0.01
8.  Ohio St.         62.0    1.02    1.05   -0.03
9.  Northwestern     63.1    0.98    1.07   -0.09
10. Iowa             58.7    0.99    1.08   -0.09
11. Indiana          63.0    0.89    1.09   -0.20

The ex-Wonk notes that Illinois’ top-ranked efficiency margin figure is partly a factor of a 31-point win against the hapless Hoosiers.   Nevertheless, the Illini have clearly played in the same statistical league as the two preseason conference favorites to date.

As for Michigan State, they rank first in the league in offensive efficiency by a fairly wide margin of 0.06 points per possession.  On defense, they rank fourth in the conference–but are well behind Purdue and Illinois in the stinginess department.

I thought we’d break down MSU’s tempo-free performance in conference play a little further by looking at where they rank in each of the four factors on the two ends of the court.  Conference-only tempo-free stats are courtesy of StatSheet.  Conference-only individual stats are from the official MSU site.

Offense

  • Turnover percentage: 22.2% (8th in conference).
  • Effective field goal percentage: 49.4% (6th).
  • Free throw rate: 38.1% (3rd).
  • Offensive rebounding percentage: 49.4% (1st).

MSU is making its living on the offensive glass, out-rebounding the second best team in the league (Minnesota) by over 12 percentage points.  As noted in this space last week, six different Spartans are averaging at least one offensive rebound per game, led by Goran Suton with 3.6 per game.

To a lesser extent, getting to the free throw line has been an advantage.  Kalin Lucas has gotten to the line 6 times per game in conference play, converting 88.1% of those shots.

Despite Chris Allen’s dismal 3-point shooting percentage of 24.3% (on a team-high 37 attempts), the team still ranks in the middle of the pack in 3-point shooting percentage at 35.2%.  Every other Spartan to take more than one 3-pointer in conference play is shooting at least 36% from beyond the arc.

The turnover percentage figure is disappointing, but is almost entirely a function of the Illinois and Northwestern games.  Those are the only two conference games in which MSU has posted a turnover percentage greater than 21%.

Defense

  • Turnover percentage: 17.2% (10th in conference).
  • Effective field goal percentage: 50.0% (5th).
  • Free throw rate: 33.7% (7th).
  • Defensive rebounding percentage: 74.0% (3rd).

Once again rebounding is the strength.  No conference opponent has posted an offensive rebounding percentage above 31%.

The effective field goal percentage figure masks this dichotomy:

  • MSU is holding opponents to a three-point percentage of 31.9%, second lowest in the league.
  • MSU is allowing opponents to make 51.7% of their 2-point attempts (I’m too lazy to calculate the rank for that stat).

Post defense has been a problem for MSU.  Jamelle Cornley, B.J. Mullens, and the Illini post players  have all presented problems for the Spartan big men.

The perimeter defense has definitely tightened up since nonconference play, when five opponents made more than 35.0% of their three-point attempts.  Ohio State on Sunday was the first conference team to pull that trick off against us.

Finally, we just aren’t creating any turnovers.  Forcing turnovers has never been a trademark of Tom Izzo teams–he prefers his players to force a tough shot and get the rebound–but that number has to go up a little bit.  The percentage is skewed down a bit by having played Northwestern twice; the Wildcats lead the conference in offensive turnover percentage at 14.7%.

In sum, MSU’s tempo-free numbers aren’t quite as impressive as their 6-1 league record might indicate.  The good news is there’s room to improve.  The rebounding dominance should continue, given that the rest of the conference tends to eschew crashing the glass on offense.  Improved interior defense and a tad more pressure on the opponent’s ball-handlers would go a long way toward separating ourselves from Illinois and Purdue as the conference season approaches the second half.

(Note that I took about ten more paragraphs than Mr. Gasaway did to reach the same conclusion.  His version: “If State’s D can just force a few more misses on the interior or a few more turnovers by opponents (or both), well, stay tuned.”)

« « Ohio State Game Recap (1/25/09) | Tuesday Night Links » »

Filed in links, rankings update, stats analysis19 responses so far

19 Responses to “Monday Night Musings: Four Factors Edition”

  1. TMadison25on 26 Jan 2009 at 9:13 pm 1

    I have to agree that the Spartan committing the slash (Tropp, I believe) should be booted. The video is hard to make out of the initial contact from Conboy, but it doesn’t look good, from what I can see. He probably shouldn’t see the ice again either. Hopefully, Kampfer is alright.

  2. Seeron 26 Jan 2009 at 11:10 pm 2

    I’m glad Kampfer is alright. Tropp ought to be kicked out, not much doubt about it. It’s unfortunate because he didn’t have a history of acting like this, but you just don’t do that to a guy on the ice, or anywhere really. It was also rather cowardly to do it at the end of a game that was clearly lost, on top of it being the last MSU-UM game of the year.

    Conboy is a tricky issue. He has a history of being a rough guy, but on the other hand, his thing was more what you’d expect out of a frustrated hockey player. If he was suspended for the season and part of next season (since this season is lost, it’s not much punishment to sit out in a series of games that they’re not going to win anyway) that would be fine by me. He needs serious discipline.

    Comley needs to go. That 2007 championship is starting to show off what many suspected it was: a product of a favorable tournament set up and a goalie getting hot at the right time. To take State to last place in just two years and lose control of your players like he has this season is unacceptable to a program like MSU. Our hockey team has been a source of pride for years. Unfortunately, this year was one we’d like to forget, and thanks to Conboy and Tropp’s actions it is instead one that we cannot forget.

  3. Seeron 27 Jan 2009 at 12:08 am 3

    UPDATE on the hockey thing: Both players have been suspended for the season by Comley.

    Hollis basically said he was ok with Comley’s decision. CCHA has also said they support the level of punishment.

    I think Tropp is getting off easy, but it might be because he has no history of this behavior.

  4. SpartanDanon 27 Jan 2009 at 12:12 am 4

    Kampfer is doing fine, thankfully. Official word is that both are gone for the season. Sounds reasonable to me regarding Conboy, at least, but if Tropp comes back at all he had better be told that any further incidents, even if they’re not anywhere near this severe, and he’s gone for good.

  5. witless chumon 27 Jan 2009 at 7:10 am 5

    Gone for the season at least. Tropp oughta be gone altogether. Watching the video, I can’t really see what Conboy did to Kampfer, so I’m not sure about that one. And probably best if no charges get pressed on Kampfer’s dad.

    If you want to fight on the ice, fight, don’t slash people in the head. Didn’t Darren McCarty teach you boys any better than this? Did Reg Dunlop slash anyone in the head?

    I guess I’m not so down on Comley, maybe because I remember his title run in the early 90s with Dallas Drake and NMU. Even though I was/am a Michigan Tech hockey fan, that was pretty cool.

    http://statenews.com/index.php.....all_around

    Speaking of bad, a State News writer tries to play it off as both sides behaved badly, offering equivalency with the U of M fans chanting things that you can’t type into KJ’s comment box. I really have deep, deep contempt for this view. Sticks and stones and hockey sticks, buddy, isn’t that how the saying goes?

    Our buddy Brian, while understandably writing in anger goes for the “That’s why your Michigan State.”

    And that’s why you’re Michigan.

  6. Seeron 27 Jan 2009 at 10:08 am 6

    I think the biggest issue with the level of punishment should be: is it going to prevent retaliation/ further acts of unacceptable violence? If it is enough to do that, then the punishment is good enough. If not, then Comley might get canned after the next incident.

  7. Seeron 27 Jan 2009 at 10:09 am 7

    And so KJ knows we actually read the blog, I think that the NU loss would have hurt if we had played OSU at home, but since that was a road win by double digits and so many other teams lost it makes the small drop unsurprising.

  8. Mark in DCon 27 Jan 2009 at 10:44 am 8

    Our opponent 2 point field goal percentage ranks 8th in the conference (only Indiana, Penn State, and Michigan rank below us in that order). I think this is a function of going small a lot. We’ve got 4 perimeter guys averaging 20 minutes per game or more (in Summers case if you round up from 19.9 min per game).

    Walton (29), Lucas(34), Allen(20.1), and Summers(19.9) are all at 20 minutes or more. Meanwhile the only “bigs” that are getting significant minutes are Suton at 28.4 mpg and Morgan at 27.6. I put bigs in quotations because Morgan is somewhat undersized for a power forward, but it appears that’s where he’s spending a lot of time. Basically we’re playing a lot of minutes where our only true power-forward/center sized player is Suton. Given that, He is doing a Herculean job on the glass and providing some scoring punch in the paint.

    Of the other bigs, Roe leads the pack at 14.3 minutes per game. Marquise is the only other big man with more than 10 minutes per game at 10.7. Roe is a freshman and has been absolutely stellar on the glass but it would not be surprising if his D isn’t quite up to snuff yet. Basically, because none of our upper class big men other than Suton have shown themselves worthy of significant minutes we’ve gone small a lot. The result is lackluster interior D.

    Things may improve if we reduce Allen’s minutes and put Gray or Ibok (or Roe if it’s not rushing his recovery) on the court more. I’d be in favor of doing that as long as Allen continues struggling with his 3 point shot. We could give 5 of his minutes to Summers and another 5 to Marquise/Roe to maintain our perimeter O and provide better interior d. Otherwise, we’ll continue to struggle on the interior on D because we just don’t have the size. So far we’ve been able to live with it.

    Another justification for reducing Allen’s minuts – if you subtract his attempts we’re shooting a robust 40 percent from three point land in league play – good for 3rd in the league.

  9. donaldoon 27 Jan 2009 at 11:09 am 9

    I too would like to see Gray on the court for more minutes. He has played well during his limited mintes and has gotten more in the flow when he isn’t yanked after making one mistake. In Gray, I see a player that brings an ingredient that is otherwise missing from this team – for lack of a better term, that “Flint Attitude.” He brings energy and enthusiasm, and is a player that will run through a wall for the team. I believe he has been mishandled throughout his tenure, but he seems to have let that pass, and I think he can contribute a lot down the stretch. He has developed his passing and can use his body to make space in the paint. We’d be a more balanced team and better defensively if he were on the court five more minutes each game.

  10. kjon 27 Jan 2009 at 11:12 am 10

    My guess is we’ll see more of Roe in the next few games. Seems like he’s played limited minutes in the second halves of the last two games as Izzo went with the small lineup.

    And I think there’s something to donaldo’s theory about Gray. To me, he’s been much better on defense than he was last year. And he’s still a defensive rebounding machine.

  11. Zekeon 27 Jan 2009 at 11:39 am 11

    I love what I’ve been seeing from Gray this year in his limited minutes. You can definitely tell he’s a fan favorite in the Bres when his game is on.

    Just thought I’d weigh in on the hockey issue, too… I think that the incident was regrettable and shameful, the MSU players have been aptly punished, and any further action is up to the players and their parents. Brian over at mgoblog seems to have a vested interest in the Ann Arbor pitchfork-and-torch market. His petty insults that malign Michigan State’s program mixed with the continuing outrage should frankly be embarrassing to U-M fans.

  12. Chrison 27 Jan 2009 at 11:57 am 12

    We won’t be able to see too much more of Roe if he cannot stay out of foul trouble. He had 4 fouls in just 15 minutes on Sunday.

  13. TMadison25on 27 Jan 2009 at 12:15 pm 13

    I am in slight disagreement regarding Gray. Nothing to back this up, but… Gray seems marginally better on defense, Roe seems much better on offense. Gray has hit his ceiling, Roe is just beginning. I view Gray as much more of a role player than Roe… Just like Lucious and Green, Roe should take his lumps early.

    Regarding the hockey incident, I still think Tropp shouldn’t see the ice again. I kinda feel similar about Conboy as well, but it’s not as cut and dry with him. I can’t imagine what Kampfer’s parents were going through at the time and if U of M went after a Spartan player in that manner, I’d be hoping they wouldn’t see the ice again.

    I understand their anger, but as Zeke mentioned, the petty insults about the MSU program are pretty pathetic.

  14. TMadison25on 27 Jan 2009 at 12:30 pm 14

    The foul trouble is something that Roe should get acquainted to asap. After all, that Coble pump-fake that Roe bit on along with a few Raymar-like hand checks are what typically Big Ten officials call. He will be getting significant minutes down the road… Hopefully he adjusts better/quicker than Raymar does.

  15. Mark in DCon 27 Jan 2009 at 3:33 pm 15

    All I know is it would be nice to be able to go bigger without sacrificing too much offensively. Gray has looked somewhat better this year but I’m not sure he’s a turnover machine, which is I think what limits his minutes.

    Looking at Kenpoms individual stats, they’re pretty even on the boards in both offensive and defensive rebounding. Roe has a higher assist rate, much lower (more than 12 points lower!) turnover rate, gets to the line more often, and blocks more shots.

    Gray leads Roe in free throw percentage (where Roe is atrocious) and field goal percentage, where Gray has a significant advantage. Can’t say much about their relative merits defensively (other than blocks) from the stats but I would hope Gray is the better defender after 3 more years of practice at the college level. If he could cut down on the TOs he’d probably be at least splitting time with Roe if not starting regularly and getting more minutes.

  16. kjon 27 Jan 2009 at 3:57 pm 16

    Both hockey players are no longer on the team. Conboy has left school. Tropp “might be allowed” to return to the team.

    http://www.detnews.com/apps/pb.....1132/rss18

  17. kjon 27 Jan 2009 at 4:54 pm 17

    And Brian has been pacified.

    http://mgoblog.com/content/tropp-conboy-gone

  18. DP99on 27 Jan 2009 at 6:06 pm 18

    You have to remember that MSU hockey is a historically elite program. Even without these incidents, the complete spiral it has gone into in the last two seasons would have been enough to put Comley in hot water. This incident just puts it over the top, since now it’s looking like he’s losing control of player’s emotions (no doubt these players expected much different than the mess of a season they’ve been in when they signed up to play at MSU), and keeps playing a guy with history of incidents and not enough talent. Either he made that choice deliberately or he is just a poor evaluator of talent and abilities. Either way, time to go. Brian has a strange ability to make reasonable arguments, be very logical and methodical, and yet let the cliche’ and bizarre UM “there is a reason we are us and you are you” attitude come out, whereas we are talking sports. He should be angry, just us we would be livid if this thing had gone the other way around. Remove yourself from Brian’s UM-MSU id talking, and on the balance you can agree with what he says. Pretty clear to me both players should go and Comley should resign.

    By the way, how is Ron Mason’s AD legacy shaping up? The John L hire was a disaster and Comley is going the same direction.

  19. Stukaon 27 Jan 2009 at 10:13 pm 19

    “Brian has a strange ability to make reasonable arguments, be very logical and methodical, and yet let the cliche’ and bizarre UM “there is a reason we are us and you are you” attitude come out…”

    Well put. I enjoy his rational analyses, but his opinion of his own opinion can be too much at times. I’ve noticed the weird obsession with MSU, too… I originally thought it was humorous schtick, but over the past few years I’m more inclined to believe it’s a sort of complex. Strange combination.

    I was happy to see that Conboy “chose” to leave, though.