Northwestern Game Recap (1/21/09)
Posted by kj on Wednesday, January 21st, 2009
The Wildcats stun the Spartans 70-63 in a 63-possession game. StatSheet box score.
The Spartan fan half of my brain is pretty mad about this one. We lost to Northwestern, of all teams, to end a 28-game home court winning streak and ruin a perfect conference record. And we did it by completely losing our composure for long stretches, throwing pass after pass into the stands or the hands of the opposition.
The basketball analyst in me. meanwhile, thinks this result was pretty fluky. Witness:
- Our leading scorer not attempting a single field goal (as far as the box score is concerned) in 18 minutes of play due to the flu.
- Our perimeter shooting specialist missing all eight of his 3-point attempts.
- Multiple Wildcat players knocking down three-pointers from 3-6 feet behind the line–two of those shots coming with the game on the line in the final minutes.
Given Morgan’s and Allen’s struggles, it was a uphill battle just to have a shot at the end. Kalin Lucas (20 points on 7-12 FG shooting) and Goran Suton (15 points, 14 rebounds) were the only playmakers against the zone. And Lucas had a very un-Lucas like six turnovers. That wouldn’t be so bad, except that Chris Allen managed to top him by coughing the ball up seven times.
Hence this graph:
I’m at a loss to explain the problems against the Wildcat 1-3-1 zone. The coaches and players knew it was coming, and Tom Izzo is usually among the best in the game at preparing for zone defenses. There were a few miscues early, but once they settled in MSU made quick, decisive passes to create good shots in the first half.
In the second half, the guards and Allen suddenly lost their bearings, making a series of bizarre passes on the perimeter, rather than trying to get the ball into the middle of the zone.
I give Northwestern all the credit in the world. They played their defensive system to perfection, and Kevin Coble, Michael Thompson, and Craig Moore showed no hesitation whatsoever in knocking down big shots down the stretch. Northwestern probably had a win in a close game coming to them, and we probably had a loss in a close game coming to us.
But this is a game MSU wins by 10 points under normal circumstances. If I were Tom Izzo (and thank goodness I’m not), I’d burn the game film and move on.
That’s all for tonight. After two hours of watching the MSU offense in 1-3-1 land and another two hours of watching the Losties in time-shifting land, I’m pretty disoriented.
Next up: A trip to Columbus on Sunday (3:45, CBS).
Filed in game recap10 responses so far
10 Responses to “Northwestern Game Recap (1/21/09)”
Thursday Links: Upset Edition | UM Hoops.comon 22 Jan 2009 at 1:20 am 1[...] Northwestern Game Recap (1/21/09) Raymar Morgan was sick and MSU continues to struggle against zone defense. [...]
SpartanDanon 22 Jan 2009 at 1:58 am 2Even with the ludicrous shooting by Coble and Thompson, even with Allen ice cold from range and Morgan not able to play to his usual level (or minutes), if we manage not to turn the offense into a blooper reel, we win. Knock the turnovers down to 12 (close to our season average based on pace, and probably reasonable given the number of ridiculous passes to no one) instead of 18, assume the same level of efficiency on non-turnover possessions, and we put up 71. (And that doesn’t even account for the crazy desperation shots late dragging things down, or the fouls we committed late to boost Northwestern’s total.)
In a sense, it’s comforting to know that it took both the absolute best NW can bring at us and close to the worst we could possibly do to lose that game. And it may be for the best that we lost given that we made so many boneheaded turnovers two games in a row; winning has a way of masking flaws (or at least making them easier to ignore), and I can guarantee if we play like that against Ohio State (to say nothing of a potential tournament game) we would get killed. (This is a theory I’ve made use of on several occasions – usually involving Gonzaga – when filling out brackets, to good effect. Beware the team with a long winning streak and a couple of scares against obviously inferior competition.)
Seeron 22 Jan 2009 at 10:43 am 3At least we played our worst game when these guys were ill. Imagine if we would have suffered through this performance when they were healthy?
I have a complaint, and maybe I’m wrong, but our insistence on lob passing all night seemed to doom us. Every pass was a long floater, and it seemed to me that gave time for their d to move to the ball and increased our number of TO’s.
kjon 22 Jan 2009 at 10:50 am 4Yeah, we talked about that in the in-game chat. It wasn’t so much lob passes in general that were the problem–it was lob passes after the ball-handler had already picked up his dribble. That allowed the zone to drop back and pick off the pass.
They needed to either make quick, decisive passes or just dribble through the zone. Instead, they split the difference, which is exactly what NW wanted them to do.
Sparty Basketballon 22 Jan 2009 at 11:03 am 5I agree with turnovers being the problem. Especially points off turnovers where NW dominated 27-7. But, it was interesting when you compare the box scores of the two NW/MSU games. Everything is essentially the same except for turnovers (18 vs 12) and Spartan three-point shooting. We were 9-16 in the first game and then 5-21 in the second game.
This makes me wonder even more, are we a team that needs to have the three-point shot going down to win?
SpartanDanon 22 Jan 2009 at 11:52 am 6Making threes certainly wouldn’t have hurt, but if we hang on to the ball, we win even with Coble going berserk and Allen clanking everything in sight. Threes weren’t falling at Penn State or against Illinois, and we only had three makes against Texas (though we didn’t shoot many).
We can win without raining threes; it’s the games where we hand out extra possessions like Halloween candy that are the problem. All three losses featured TO% over 22 and defensive TO% under 15; two of them were over 25 and under 12, respectively (the Maryland game being the exception, and that featured an absurdly high 57.3 eFG% for Maryland). Dominating on the glass gets us extra shot attempts and some cushion on nights where our shots aren’t falling or the opponent just won’t miss; we’ve won four times despite shooting a lower eFG% than our opponents. But if we give that advantage back through sloppy play we’re at the mercy of the bounces again (and the rim isn’t particularly likely to be unkind to the opponent when they’re taking uncontested layups off the fast break).
High Five: Javon Ringer played hurt | The Sports Mittenon 22 Jan 2009 at 5:26 pm 7[...] After MSU’s monumental upset loss to Northwestern last night, Tom Izzo is predictably distressed. But KJ is unfazed. [...]
Spartalyticalon 22 Jan 2009 at 6:54 pm 8Most everything I got on here to cuss about has already been covered. I agree about the lob passes. Travis Walton should never inbound the ball from under the basket. With as good as his decision-making ability generally is, his inbound routine is nearly perfectly scripted as hucking the ball into the backcourt at the four and a half count from the ref, nearly throwing it away. Teams see this on film and are beginning to anticipate it regularly.
And sweet Moses, all those passes to the phantom sixth man? I mean, there were SEVERAL where I had no blasted idea who the passer was even attempting to connect with. You can’t help Morgan still being sick, you can’t help Coble having a career night, and you can’t help a team hitting horse shots down the stretch, but MAN was there plenty else that could have been helped.
And something sticks in my craw about having attended both the games that bookended the now defunct home winning streak.
Chrison 22 Jan 2009 at 8:54 pm 9Up all night thinking about how damaging this loss could be to out hopes of a Big Ten Championship. I tried to think of a past win that would ease the pain but I wasn’t able to. All I could think about was the bad losses. It reminded me of the quote Matt Damon said in Rounders where he talks about how he can remember with outstanding accuracy every tought beat of his career, but is unable to recall the big pots he won. I still think we will win the Big Ten this year but wouldn’t be surprised if this loss costs us an outright championship.
Eleven Warriors » Preview: Ohio State vs. #7 Michigan Stateon 23 Jan 2009 at 4:46 pm 10[...] for redemption from Wednesday’s loss, as Morgan didn’t attempt a FG in 18 minutes due to the flu and Allen missed all 8 of his tries from downtown, while turning it over 7 times. Kalin Lucas leads [...]