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A statistical look at Michigan State basketball, with a dash of football talk

Penn State Game Recap (1/14/09)

Posted by kj on Wednesday, January 14th, 2009

Michigan State escapes Happy Valley with a 5-point win: 78-73 in a 65-possession game.  Statsheet box score. (Note: I just realized the Statsheet box scores have an “Advanced Player Stats” tab with individual tempo-free numbers.  Wicked awesome.)

That was a very unpleasant 10 minutes of basketball.

After a game like this one, it’s easy to talk about how a team “let up” or “wasn’t tough enough” in letting a double-digit lead nearly slip away in the second half.  But, in this case, I think you have to talk about tactics before you talk about emotional fortitude.

After playing man-to-man defense for almost the entire first half, Ed DeChellis went with, not just one, but two different zone looks in the second half (2-3 and 1-3-1).  With only a few timeouts to draw things up against the zones, MSU couldn’t adjust effectively, and Penn State made some great plays offensively to close the gap.

You can argue that Izzo should have had the team prepared to play against the zone.  I don’t know how much Penn State has utilized zone schemes  in previous games; DeChellis does have a history of being a zone coach.  But it’s hard to completely adjust your offensive approach on the fly when you’ve been dominating a team for 20+ minutes.

The MSU players did look tentative and seemed to lose their shooting strokes late, but it’s hard to say how much of that is some fundamental inability to close out games versus being a symptom of the particular circumstances of this game.

Kudos to Kalin Lucas for hitting 6 of 8 free throw attempts in the final minute to put the game away.

Moving on to the stats, here’s your four factors graph:

Despite Penn State winning the second-half rebounding battle, MSU still came away with a major advantage on the boards, pulling down 41 of 65 total rebounding opportunities.  That was enough to offset Penn State’s turnover advantage.

MSU has now posted an offensive rebounding percentage of 50.0% or better in 3 of its first 4 conference games.  Rebounding looks to be a massive advantage for us in conference play–particularly when you consider that Penn State came into this game as the second best rebounding team in the league.

Jamelle Cornley (26 points on 15 FG attempts) and Talor Battle (20 points on 11 FG attempts) were both spectacular.  I thought MSU defended them about as well as you could hope to and both still found ways to consistently score against bigger players.  The rest of the Nittany Lions shot a collective 9-27, though.  Last year’s hero, Stanley Pringle, struggled, making just 2 of 11 FG attempts.

MSU player bullets:

  • Goran Suton is back and better than ever: 13 points and 14 rebounds.  He was the most aggressive player trying to attack the zone, and his newfound perimeter shooting touch is opening up new offensive possibilities.
  • Raymar Morgan had 17 points on 7-9 FG shooting.  Against a team without a shot-blocking presence, he had multiple impressive finishes near the basket.
  • Kalin Lucas had a strong start, with 9 points and 4 assists in the first half, but struggled down the stretch.  He couldn’t generate any scoring against the zone defenses (zero points/assists in the second half until the free throws late) and shot just 3-13 from the field for the game.
  • Travis Walton had six assists and did everything he could to contain Battle, but I do have a couple nitpicks: (1) continuing to pick up fouls by being too aggressive with his hands and (2) taking an ill-advised, rushed jumpshot with 4 minutes left and a 6-point lead that gave Penn State some additional momentum to eventually close the gap to 2 points.
  • Delvon Roe picked up 5 offensive rebounds.  He and Suton are a tremendous tag team on the offensive boards.
  • Durrell Summers scored 10 points and was Izzo’s choice to be the fifth guy on the floor with the game in question.
  • Chris Allen scored 7 points on 4 FG attempts in 13 minutes.  I thought we could have used him a little more against the zone late in the game.
  • Korie Lucious (2 assists; zero turnovers) played under control, Marquise Gray and Draymond Green pulled down a few boards, and Idong Ibok fouled some people.

Four of MSU’s starters (everyone but Roe) played 30 or more minutes tonight.  Izzo may have tightened up the rotation a bit too much, leaving the starters a step slow in the final minutes.

Anyway, a road win is a road win.  And a 4-0 conference start is a 4-0 conference start.  This game should serve as a learning experience in terms of being able to adapt in the second half when an opponent throws something new at you.

Up next: A home game vs. the resurgent Illini on Saturday (4:00, ESPN).

P.S. There were a few in-game comments tonight.  What’s the interest level in doing open threads so that we can converse a bit during future games?

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Filed in game recap17 responses so far

17 Responses to “Penn State Game Recap (1/14/09)”

  1. Seeron 14 Jan 2009 at 10:42 pm 1

    I’d possibly be interested in chats, but much moreso for away games during the week than anything on the weekend and games that are at the Breslin are right out for me.

  2. MooTheKowon 14 Jan 2009 at 10:49 pm 2

    I’d be game for in-game chats as well.

  3. SpartanWozon 14 Jan 2009 at 11:41 pm 3

    As long as Tim McCormick isn’t going to be invited, or if he jumps off of the penn state is awesome bandwagon. I’m cool with the idea.

  4. SpartanDanon 14 Jan 2009 at 11:54 pm 4

    I’d probably be up for it.

  5. donaldoon 15 Jan 2009 at 12:13 am 5

    My guess is that future opponents are going to look at the trouble we had in the second half against the zones and we could see a trend in tha direction. I hope the coaching staff will devote some practice time to preparing for those different looks.

    Playing on the road is difficult, and the energy of an enthralled crowd compounds the challenge. The lead was squandered, but we hit the important free throws down the stretch and that is a positive sign. In close games it is a necessity. Summers was probably in at the end because he is one of the more dependable free throw shooters.

    The shot selection in the last several minutes left something to be desired. We need to be taking higher percentage shots when the game is on the line.

    Bottom line, an important road win.

  6. TMadison25on 15 Jan 2009 at 6:43 am 6

    Open thread sounds like a great idea.

  7. witless chumon 15 Jan 2009 at 7:07 am 7

    Hey! Ibok (or whatever his name is, right CBS?) made a nice offensive board and put back early. If he did that consistently, he’d play a lot more. Judging by how that Illinois center played against U of M, we’ll need Ibok to play some good minutes against him.

    As far as the comeback, that analysis seems about right, although we played against the zone effectively at times. We just hit a shooting slump and had some questionable decisions that allowed PSU to pull back to almost tie. I wonder if we’re goign to see zone from everyone after this?

    It seemed to me that Izzo left Suton out there a bit long late. He looked very winded and tired out there. He did suck it up, but I thought he might have been more effective with a minute or two break.

  8. TMadison25on 15 Jan 2009 at 8:45 am 8

    “Ibong Idok” is what he was repeatedly called vs. Kansas. I agree that Suton seemed a little too fatigued late… The late travel (along with the no-call travel earlier) resulted. He was part of the final defensive stop, though.

    This team plays better in a more free-flowing offense. Late in the game when they were trying to burn clock, the shots seemed more forced… contributing to nearly blowing the lead. Maybe that’s more a product of good zone defense (or both) but the late game offensive execution is a little worrisome.

    4-0 in conference with two home games coming up.

  9. kjon 15 Jan 2009 at 8:48 am 9

    We’ll shoot to do the first open thread next Wednesday (home against NW), since I’ll be attending Saturday’s game.

    SpartanWoz: No kidding re: McCormick. How many times did he pull out the same Cornley/rushing-the-court anecdote?

  10. Chrison 15 Jan 2009 at 9:34 am 10

    Looking forward to the open threads. I was really disappointed in Walton’s decision making in the 2nd half. That 3 pointer he shot was terrible. He also did a poor job going through the screen when Battle hit the three to cut the lead to one. I thought Izzo should have played Allen more. When teams are playing the zone and Walton is on the court, they dont guard him which makes the zone even more effective. They needed Allen out there to shoot them out of that zone. McCormick was more excited about watching the UM game then calling ours.

  11. Chrison 15 Jan 2009 at 10:36 am 11

    One more rant, Battle has some nerve complaining about the refs non-call on his drive at the end of the game. Penn State drove recklessly to the rim the whole game and were bailed out by fouls. Offensive players should not be allowed to lower their shoulder into the defender and expect a foul.

  12. Benon 15 Jan 2009 at 10:47 am 12

    I thought the same thing re: playing Chris Allen in the second half — that zone should have opened up perimeter opportunities which we just didn’t take advantage of. Have to say that I was impressed by Ed DeChellis . . . his second-half adjustments worked. He may be stuck in an ultimately impossible situation at PSU but the guy can coach.

    McCormick was getting pretty obnoxious with the court-storming stuff but overall, I don’t think he’s terrible. However, I thought it was funny how the announcerskept on talking about how phenomenal the crowd was (e.g., “if Penn State scores here, the roof is going to blow off this place!!!11″). Rexrode wrote that the place was half full. Must have been true, given the conspicuous absence of any wide-angle shots of the arena.

    Saturday is big. The 7-footer from Illinois was great against Michigan last night . . . the fact that we kept Cole Aldrich relatively in check last Saturday makes me feel a bit better about our chances against him.

  13. kjon 15 Jan 2009 at 11:09 am 13

    Two bad McCormick moments:

    1) Counting Suton’s steps on the fast break layup. He says “one, two” and then declares it a travel.

    2) Saying MSU was lucky Lucas didn’t get called for stepping out of bounds in the last minute. He stepped out of bounds because he was pushed–hence the foul call.

    Usually I don’t mind McCormick, but he seemed too focused on hyping the game and not focused enough on the details of what was going on on the court last night.

  14. Chrison 15 Jan 2009 at 11:41 am 14

    I screamed at the tv when McCormick said Lucas was Lucky for not getting called for being pushed out of bounds. Nobody mentioned the replay of Green under the basket where Cornley did a wrestling move on him and no foul was called. Green’s reaction was priceless. He was being picked up in the air, staring at the ref. Ok, enough griping. Were 3-0 on the road in the Big Ten and in great position to win our first Big Ten Championship in 8 years.

  15. MZon 15 Jan 2009 at 7:37 pm 15

    This particular MSU team needs a guy like Walton on the court at all times, regardless of the defense the other team is playing. Walton is the glue and can hit the outside shot from time to time. MSU was having a difficult time on defense in the second half and if you bring in Allen, it does not help matters. Allen can shoot, but he is very slow, less athletic than most and is a horrible defender! We will miss Travis next year big time!

  16. Ryanon 15 Jan 2009 at 9:13 pm 16

    Funny, I was thinking just the opposite. Seems like you absolutely cannot have Walton on the floor against the zone. If he’s not driving or hitting the 12-footer, the front guy in the 1-3-1 can essentially act as a rover, disrupting the ball handler or getting in rebounding position at will. I know Allen won’t get more minutes, as he is Izzo’s anti-BFF, but I would like to see more Lucas/Lucious together.

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