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A statistical look at Michigan State basketball, with a dash of football talk

Coffee Talk: Jumping-the-Gun-on-the-Big-Ten-Race Edition

Posted by kj on Wednesday, January 7th, 2009

You’ve probably all read by now that the last time MSU started a conference season 3-0 we not only won the Big Ten championship, we also went on to win the national championship.  It’s far too premature to talk about the latter, but let’s go ahead and talk about the former.

With Purdue’s loss in Happy Valley last night (sans Hummel and Kramer), the Big Ten race no longer looks like a two-team race.  Here are your updated Kenpom projections for the final Big Ten standings (current conference records in parentheses; ties broken based on current Kenpom ranking):

  1. Michigan State: 13-5 (3-0)
  2. Illinois: 12-6 (1-1)
  3. Purdue: 11-7 (0-2)
  4. Wisconsin: 10-8 (2-0)
  5. Northwestern: 9-9 (0-2)
  6. Ohio State: 9-9 (1-2)
  7. Iowa: 9-9 (1-1)
  8. Michigan: 8-10 (1-1)
  9. Minnesota: 8-10 (1-1)
  10. Penn State: 8-10 (2-1)
  11. Indiana: 1-17 (0-1)

Depending on what you believe about Illinois and Northwestern, there are basically seven to nine teams bunched up in the middle of the conference from a statistical standpoint.  At 2-0, Wisconsin looks like the obvious team to give MSU a run for its money down the stretch, but it remains to be seen if the Badgers can manufacture enough scoring against teams that don’t play defense at a Wolverine-like level.  Sunday’s Wisconsin-Purdue game should tell us something about both teams (assuming Robbie Hummel can play, I suppose).

Coffee Talk: How excited does the start to conference play have you about MSU’s chances of ending the seven-year conference title drought?  What concerns you the most in terms of the Spartans maintaining their current level of efficiency down the stretch?  What team(s) do you see emerging from the pack to challenge us?

Chat amongst yourselves.

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Filed in coffee talk18 responses so far

18 Responses to “Coffee Talk: Jumping-the-Gun-on-the-Big-Ten-Race Edition”

  1. Benon 07 Jan 2009 at 12:19 pm 1

    I’m sorry, I just can’t buy kenpom’s projection. There’s no way we end up with 3 teams at 9-9, 3 teams at 8-10, and one team at 1-17. First, I think Indiana will do better than that; second, I would be very surprised if the league doesn’t end up stratifying a bit more neatly, even though I will admit that it’s becoming more difficult to pick out the bottom-of-the-pack teams in the league. (e.g., Penn State winning last night.) I guess on my list, I’d switch Purdue and Wisconsin; you can’t ever expect Wisconsin to lose more than one or two (at most) at home. Given that, for them to go 10-8, they’d obviously have to be 3-6 or 2-7 on the road; they’re better than that. Purdue obviously hasn’t impressed much thusfar. As you said, the Wisconsin game is really, really big for them.

    I could very well see Ohio State breaking out of the middle-of-the-pack if they can hold it together over the next two weeks or so. Mullens looked damned impressive last night, and, presumably, Lighty will be back for at least the second half of the conference schedule. Matta’s a good coach; I expect for this to be a tournament team, and I think it’s really, really fortunate that we’re playing them both times in January, and not later in the season. The other team that could break out is Michigan; I guess the jury’s still out on whether Lucas-Perry is the real deal, but Manny Harris certainly is. He could steal a couple of games on his own. On the other hand, I think Iowa will end up fading to the back of the league.

    As for Illinois . . . I have absolutely no idea.

  2. TMadison25on 07 Jan 2009 at 1:09 pm 2

    I am very excited about our chances of a conference title. The 3-0 record comes with aggressive swagger that this group is displaying. It’s seemed since the Tolbert/Hill/Anderson days that we would pass up open looks, especially open perimeter looks. Now with so many weapons, our post players have room to work. My main concern is still how we perform on the road. Getting two early road wins was clutch, but it’s still early to write off our typical conference road deficiencies.

    I am most worried about Wisconsin and Illinois. Bo Ryan will some how always compete and playing in Champaign when Illinois has a shot at a Big Ten title frightens me. Purdue (healthy) is still in the hunt, but dropping two very winnable games early is a shot in the foot. Still not sure what to make of Michigan.

  3. SpartanDanon 07 Jan 2009 at 2:04 pm 3

    I like our chances. For whatever reason, something seems missing for Wisconsin (the D – usually one of the best in the nation – is just 70th this year, and the offense isn’t outrageously good to make up for it), and Purdue has already dropped a home game and a roadie against the bottom tier – even when they get healthy again, that puts them in a hole that might be too big to make up. Illinois may be the toughest competition, although I still have a hard time believing that their offense can be consistently effective living almost entirely off the midrange game.

  4. Dylan (umhoops.com)on 07 Jan 2009 at 2:48 pm 4

    I think this is the year MSU has to take the league. Purdue is digging themselves into a hole and while I would think they would rebound they probably won’t be able to get back to the top.

    Wisconsin is always a worry, especially for you guys considering they have seemed to dominate you in recent years.

    @Ben: I really wouldn’t be surprised if the standings end up that close. All these teams are close and I could see OSU getting in trouble w/o Lighty and not making the tournament even. Then you have Penn State already knocking off Purdue. I think NW and Iowa fall into the 9 and 10 spots but the top 7 will be close.

  5. Tuxsteron 07 Jan 2009 at 3:41 pm 5

    I am sooo glad that we are not playing @Wisconsin this year, since that would have been as close we would have gotten to a guaranteed L as possible.

    With that working in favor, we really have to shoot ourselves in the foot not to end the title drought this year. Injuries is the main thing that we have to worry about; the team struggled quite a bit with Suton out of the line-up…

    I think Wisconsin and Illinois are the two teams to watch as well. I think Michigan can score some upsets (we could potentially lose in Ann Arbor this year), but I find it hard to believe that they will maintain the level of consistent high-quality play, especially on the road.

  6. Danon 07 Jan 2009 at 5:05 pm 6

    I think Purdue will bounce back from the mini-slump that they’re in! They’ve been without the heart and soul of their team! They’ll be ok! I still think that they have the ability to go on a 10 game streak…they.

    I think State has an advantage with its depth, but they’re still working some stuff out. Hopefully they’ll get some sort of rhythm in the next few weeks as they are actually home.

    My in-laws are huge Hoosier fans, and I think projecting them as a 1-17 team is very generious!

    Go State!

  7. Mark in DCon 07 Jan 2009 at 5:25 pm 7

    Interesting that his national ranking page still has Purdue and Illinois ranked ahead of us but he has us winning the Big 10 championship outright based on projected wins and losses. There seems to be some inconsistency there.

    Purdue has looked underwhelming since conference play began and they really do have trouble scoring with the notable exception of Hummel. If he goes out for any length of time they may be in trouble – even more trouble than we would be in without Suton. Right now statistically Illinois looks like the closest match for us based on offensive and defensive efficiency. I still don’t trust their offense, and our defense has improved dramatically since conference play began, especially on the perimeter. If we can keep that up, maintain our offensive proficiency, and continue to rebound the way we usually do we should bring home the regular season banner.

    The bottom line is that if we beat Wisconsin and split the series with Illinois, Purdue, and Ohio State we can still drop another one or two games and will wind up with a share of the championship, because everyone else looks vulnerable and will probably drop a few. Those are big if’s though and it is far to early to start popping corks. I’d feel more comfortable if Wisconsin had lost – they sure have a knack for pulling out close ones. I am liking being the team that is living up to expectations rather than not living up to them (a la Purdue so far). I hope it continues.

  8. SpartanDanon 07 Jan 2009 at 5:37 pm 8

    Mark: The reason is that we already have three wins, one of the tougher games (@Minn) out of the way, and a more favorable schedule (no trip to Wisconsin, although according to his rankings that’s not a huge advantage). Illinois has already lost one (although it was a relatively tough game). Purdue has dropped two, one at home and one a road game against the lower tier. We’re close enough in the rankings that the projection should be fairly even in the remaining games; the difference is we’re ahead now and so we should stay ahead.

  9. donaldoon 07 Jan 2009 at 6:45 pm 9

    We need to hold serve at home. If we go 6-3 on the road, that should be good enough for the conference title. One more loss probably means a share of the title.

    My concerns are:

    Free throw shooting- We need to be at 75% or better each game. We are getting to the line often, but if we keep missing front ends and other free throws, we will lose a game ofr two that we should win.

    Falling into the stand around, dribble around the perimeter half court offense- For the most part, I’ve been pleased with the ball movement and the inside-outside looks. It has freed us for good looks on the perimeter and our outside shooting has been a strength. That has opened things up inside. I have seem stretches though, such as yesterday, where our offense looked stagnant. Too much standing still, resulting in shots as the clock was winding down. That’s the formula for turnovers and bad shot selection.

    I believe the rotation is coming together and the team is gelling. They have responded to runs that in past years would have buried them. I enjoy the athleticism. They will be a strong team in March.

  10. SpartanDanon 07 Jan 2009 at 7:18 pm 10

    KJ, don’t know if you’re interested, but apparently the BlogPoll (started by Brian at mgoblog, picked up by Sportsline this year) is expanding into college hoops too and Brian’s looking for potential voters.

  11. Uncle Omaron 07 Jan 2009 at 9:44 pm 11

    His predictions can’t possibly work out. He has the entire conference winning 98 and losing 100. It bothers me some when guys who can really do nifty things with math don’t seem to know basic rules of competition, i.e. that each game has a winner and a loser and at the end of the season the respective numbers of wins and losses have to be equal. Or, the math doesn’t equal the arithmetic. Or, I’m just being picky.

  12. witless chumon 07 Jan 2009 at 10:40 pm 12

    I feel a lot better than I did before the Texas game. I think it’s huge that we’ve won on the road at Northwestern and beaten OSU at home without playing lights out. This team can get better and I don’t see why it wouldn’t, with so many young guys getting more experienced.

    With us playing well and no other team looking unbeatable, I’m pretty optimistic MSU can get to the title.

  13. Seeron 08 Jan 2009 at 12:32 am 13

    A bit off the topic, but Brian at Mgoblog is assembling a blogpoll for basketball, and I can think of no finer MSU basketball blog (basketblog?) than this one.

  14. SpartanDanon 08 Jan 2009 at 12:48 am 14

    Uncle Omar: He’s just taking the average number of wins for each team, rather than projecting game-by-game results and adding those up. Problem is that rounding those introduces error – if you had three teams with expected win totals of 8.4, 8.4, 8.2, the total would be 25 before rounding but 24 after. If it was game-by-game, we’d be projected at 15-3. But a team that’s a 2-to-1 favorite to win each game is more likely to end up 12-6 than 18-0, even though there’s not a single game they’re expected to lose.

  15. DP99on 08 Jan 2009 at 1:10 pm 15

    kj to the basketball blogpoll please! At least this will be a good way to make sure we don’t end up in the Koulter/Kos award needlessly. I know it was against the mission statemtent for the site, but at this point kj could take over football blogpoll duties too and we would not complain. I don’t think Brian would either.

  16. witless chumon 08 Jan 2009 at 3:26 pm 16

    DP99 speaks wisely on both points.

  17. kjon 08 Jan 2009 at 4:26 pm 17

    Contemplate blogpoll participation, I will.

  18. The Daily Gopheron 09 Jan 2009 at 2:19 pm 18

    I am a huge fan of KenPom stats but his prediction model leaves much to be desired. So far in Big Ten games Minnesota was picked to beat MSU, lose to OSU and lose @Iowa. Results were L, W, W – KenPom is 0-3.

    I respect the KenPom and love his compilation of all things efficiency stat related, but the watching teams play factor has to come into play. No way Penn State finishes 10th and NU finishes 5th. And I’m a homer but I’d be really shocked if Minn finished 9th.