Northwestern Game Preview
Posted by kj on Friday, January 2nd, 2009
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The toils of blogging once again having worn me down physically, mentally, and spiritually, I am retreating to warmer climates tomorrow for a seven-day stay. I do plan to blog more regularly while on vacation than I have in the past, but content intensity will likely be down through next Saturday.
The Conference Schedule
After seemingly getting hosed by the Big Ten schedule maker every season the conference utilized the 16-game format, this year’s schedule finally gives us an advantage (albeit a relatively small one), in the conference title race. We don’t have to make the dreaded trip to Madison, and we won’t have to face our suddenly-giant-slaying in-state rivals at home.
I’d rank the schedules of the seven teams with conceivable hopes of competing for the regular season championship as follows (from most to least favorable):
- Michigan State (Michigan, at Wisconsin)
- Wisconsin (Michigan State, at Ohio State)
- Minnesota (Iowa, at Purdue)
- Ohio State (Wisconsin, at Penn State)
- Illinois (Northwestern, at Iowa)
- Michigan (Indiana, at Michigan State)
- Purdue (Minnesota, at Indiana)
(Full list is here. But home/away designations are inverted.)
Northwestern Game Preview
7:00 Saturday. Welsh-Ryan Arena, Evanston, Illinois. Big Ten Network.
Northwestern comes in with an un-Northwesternlike record of 8-3. The losses are all against quality teams on the road: Butler, Stanford, and Penn State. The wins are, for the most part, against patsies. The Wildcats’ best win was a 14-point home victory over Florida State in the Big Ten-ACC Challenge.
Statistically, Northwestern is much improved over last season, even accounting for schedule strength. They rank 69th in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency and 24th in adjusted defensive efficiency.
The Wildcats have held all but one opponent under a point per possession offensively. Their strengths have been (1) forcing turnovers and (2) forcing tough shots. The first strength is not surprising, as their defensive turnover percentage of 25.6% is only slightly higher than last year’s 24.3%. The 1-3-1 zone continues to force opponents into bad decisions.
The sea change has come in the effective field goal % department. That figure has plummeted from 56.8% last season to 43.7% this season. Opponents are shooting just 39.9% from 2-point range. One factor appears to be Northwestern’s increased depth up front. Five players, three of whom are freshman, have block percentages of 3.0% or better.
The key, as always, against the Northwestern zone is holding on to the ball and making good passes to create good shots. Hopefully, Allen, Lucas, and Summers can knock down some 3-pointers. But it will also be incumbent on Goran Suton and the other frontline players to pass the ball well on the interior. If Delvon Roe can’t play again, that’ll hurt the interior passing options somewhat. Raymar Morgan’s increased assist totals of late are a good sign, though.
On offense, effective field goal % is also the big change. The Wildcats still take care of the ball (TO% of 19.2%) and can’t rebound a lick (OffReb% of 28.6%). But they’re shooting the ball a lot better this season. Four players are taking more than two 3-pointers per game, and all four are making at least 38% of their attempts. Senior guard Craig Moore leads the way with 35 made 3-pointers, shooting 46.7% and averaging 13.5 points/game. The MSU guards will have to defend the perimeter at least as well as they did against Minnesota, as the Wildcats have more outside shooting threats than the Gophers did.
On the interior, Northwestern’s top six shooters are all hitting at least 50.0% of their 2-point attempts. Kevin Coble has taken the most shots inside the arc, making 51.2% of his 82 two-point attempts and averaging 14.3 points/game. While the Wildcats have added some height inside, they haven’t added individual playmakers. They rank 8th in the nation in the percentage of their baskets that are assisted. MSU has to stay home in the man-to-man defense and force the Wildcat players to try to make individual plays.
The goods news is that, if MSU can force a tough shot, Northwestern is unlikely to get a second chance at scoring. And, despite their good FG shooting percentages, they don’t shoot free throws well, making just 64.1% of their shots from the line. In their three losses, offense has been the problem: they’ve shot the ball OK (eFG%s of 56.8/54.2/52.9), but turned the ball over (TO%s of 28.0/27.3/16.1), failed to get offensive rebounds (OffReb%s of 32.5/16.4/5.3[!]), and not found their way to the free throw line (FTRs of 13.6/27.1/9.8).
Beyond Moore, Coble, and point guard Michael Thompson (4.1 assists/game), Bill Carmody rotates six or seven other players (mostly big men) into the game on a fairly even basis. Freshman 6′8″ forward John Shurna looks to be a versatile contributor, averaging 10.4 points and 4.3 rebounds per game with a shooting line of .600/.379/.677.
The Wildcats continue to play at a very slow pace (61.5 possessions/game). Izzo may shorten the bench in this one and use a smaller lineup to defend the three and focus on passing/shooting on offense, since Northwestern is unlikely to take advantage on the boards or in the low post. Historically, Izzo’s been good at finding ways to beat the 1-3-1 zone. MSU has put up effective FG%s of 54.0, 67.1, 71.9, and 55.8 in the last four meetings with Northwestern. Whether the Wildcats have improved enough on defense to put an end to that streak remains to be seen.
Kenpom predicts a 66-62 Wildcat win in a 64-possession game. I’d expect the point spread will swing the other way. Two road wins to start conference play would certainly give us a leg up on the rest of the league.
I won’t be able to see this game, so the game recap is on you guys. Post your thoughts and analysis below.
Filed in game preview, site news, stats analysis
10 Responses to “Northwestern Game Preview”
Hooprakeron 03 Jan 2009 at 11:24 am 1It’ll be interesting to see how Carmody gets Northwestern to bounce back from its loss to Penn State. I’d like to see a competitive game with Northwestern playing well. If that happens, it’ll be worth watching how the Spartans respond. Can they play effectively at Northwestern’s tempo or will MSU control the game regardless?
Have fun on vacation. I’m sure Spartalytical will carry some of the weight while you’re building sand castles.
Rewertson 03 Jan 2009 at 2:45 pm 2Don’t forget to stay tuned to the big ten network after the game. From 9:00 - 10:30 there is a special titled, “The Greatest Stories of Michigan State Basketball.” I’m sure it will be a great hour and half of television.
As for the game, I predict MSU wins by 6. NW will control the tempo all day, which MSU will struggle with, but MSU will hit some key free throws in the final 4 minutes to keep the Wildcats an arm’s length away.
Ryanon 03 Jan 2009 at 3:26 pm 3Here’s a Northwestern blog preview of the game: http://welsh-ryanramblings.blogspot.com/
one fact of note is although NU still plays some 1-3-1 it isn’t their base as 5-10 Michael Thompson doesn’t really have place to hide in such a defense.
Joeon 03 Jan 2009 at 6:19 pm 4I find it very hard to take seriously any statistical analysis that predicts us losing to Northwestern. We’ve lost to them three times in the last 20 years (’02,’97,’87) against 38 wins. It seems to me that with that sample size that any Northwestern win over that period has been a fluke.
SpartanDanon 03 Jan 2009 at 9:01 pm 5Joe: Pomeroy’s method doesn’t take into account past seasons at all. It’s all about points scored and points allowed per possession, and how that compares to what your opponents normally allow or score. The problem is that there’s not a whole lot of data this early, so there’s not a whole lot to balance the margin of the two losses. It also doesn’t consider personnel differences such as the stretch we played without Suton (although because there’s a heavier weight on recent games, in the long term it can start to account for those). As a result, NW and MSU are rated pretty much identically - so home court advantage gives the edge to NW.
Given enough data, this will correct itself. But any system that uses only data from the present season will have this problem early on, exacerbated in our case because of the games without Suton.
SpartanDanon 03 Jan 2009 at 10:56 pm 6Stats from the Statsheet box score:
63 possessions
Efficiency: 122.2 to 104.8
eFG%: 54.0 to 48.2
TO%: 20.6 to 12.7
OR%: 51.4 to 26.3
FT Rate: 29.0 to 34.5
My first impressions: turnovers were the only thing keeping this close in the first half (7 to 2; 6 each in the second half). Rebounding was the big key for us - we had a ton of easy second-chance buckets. The fast break was productive as well. Raymar was an absolute beast - 22 pts on 13 shots (and two FTs), 13 boards (although he also had five turnovers). Lucas went for 17 (albeit on 14 shots and 5 FTs) and 9 assists.
FT shooting was a concern again: 10 for 18. Roe, Summers, and Allen combined to go 3-11 (1-4, 1-3, 1-4), while Lucas (5) and Morgan (2) were perfect.
Andrewon 03 Jan 2009 at 11:59 pm 7I thought the color commentator’s comment about Roe’s FT shooting issues made some sense (along side his house fly and Shania Twain comments). I assume he was better than a Ben Wallace-esque shooter in high school. I also assume that he started shooting FTs early in his rehab process and that likely involved shooting without any leg movement. Most of his misses this year have been long, so his legs are adding too much power to his shot.
That being said, he is already a lot of fun to watch, especially when we get small glimpses of his explosiveness. His passing is also great - he had a very good entrance pass to Suton in the first half (after Suton had already had some success). It forced a double-down and an open 3 for Lucas. Lots of fun.
Spartalyticalon 04 Jan 2009 at 9:07 am 8While I’ve enjoyed having access to the BTN this year, the color commentating and the halftime/between-game analysis is terrible. Some of the guys are a bit quirky, which is fine and even entertaining, but others are just off the deep end and ridiculous. Dude, you’re not Stuart Scott. Just stop it.
I just hate playing Northwestern. Their offense is so awkward and intentionally slow and boring to watch. But I have to give them credit that when they’re focused, it really goofs teams around. I was pleased to see Lucas eventually take the game over as it wore on, with solid help from Allen and Morgan contributing throughout (mostly in the first half). Rebounding was solid and defense in general seemed so as well.
It was entertaining to see Carmody come to a boil and then call like three time-outs in as many possessions to start off the second half. It was also great to hear cheers of MSU fans in attendance over top of those from the home crowd. I know State has a strong alumni/fan base in the Chicago area - do other teams have similar presences as NU games?
Spartalyticalon 04 Jan 2009 at 9:08 am 9Oh, and the special they had on afterward was very interesting regarding the MSU men’s basketball program. Well worth a tune-in.
Spartans Weblog » Northwestern Game Recap (1/3/09)on 04 Jan 2009 at 4:08 pm 10[...] Quote one of your readers My first impressions: turnovers were the only thing keeping this close in the first half (7 to 2; 6 [...]