Wrapping up the football season
Posted by kj on Thursday, January 1st, 2009
Well, I certainly didn’t think we’d see a 6-3 score line at the half. That’s what six weeks of staring at the same statistics can do to you–make you think a particular outcome (Georgia scoring early and often, in this case) is mathematically certain.
In my defense, I did point out in the bowl preview that turnovers and penalties by the Bulldogs could give MSU an advantage. And they did give us an edge in the first half; we were just unable to capitalize on the Georgia mistakes to build a more sizable lead.
I give great credit to the MSU defense. Beyond forcing the two first-half turnovers, they held all three of Georgia’s big play threats in check in terms of their primary roles. Knowshown Moreno rushed for just 68 yards on 23 carries, while the Bulldog starting wide receivers were held to one catch a piece (for 12 and 10 yards).
Ultimately, Matthew Stafford turned out to be just plain too good. After struggling with accuracy in the first half, he threw three touchdowns in the second half. All of them were NFL-level throws, and all were to secondary receivers (the most spectacular of them being thrown to Moreno).
On the other side of the ball, the MSU offensive line looked overmatched for much of the game. At one point in the first half (after MSU got the ball on a fumble recovery), Georgia forced MSU into negative yardage outcomes on four of their next five plays.
Javon Ringer was held to 55 yards on 22 carries. (It was nice to see him get a TD in his final game as a Spartan, though.) And Georgia racked up six sacks. Brian Hoyer was under pressure all game, and, when he did have to throw, he wasn’t terribly accurate. The MSU receivers made some tough short catches, but could never get open for a big play downfield.
I was disappointed in the way Mark Dantonio handled the multiple opportunities to go for it on fourth down, given his track record of being aggressive in that department. After the fake punt on the first drive failed (why not just go for it with your offense in that situation?), he seemed to overcompensate by not going for it when the situations arose again during the game. MSU reached Georgia territory on all of its first five drives in the game, but came away with only six points. By failing to generate more points in the first half, the second half became an uphill climb.
Anyway, it was good to see MSU compete for four quarters against a more talented opponent, given the implosions against Ohio State and Penn State. I think this game gives the team some credibility going into next season and caps a successful season by any measure:
- Nine wins
- Road win over Michigan
- Third place finish in the conference
- New Year’s Day Bowl
All in what’s supposed to be the second year of a major rebuilding process.
Coffee Talk: Moving right along, what’s the over/under on wins for the Michigan State football team next season?
Negatives:
- A 9-3 regular season in which we won every close game would point to some regression toward the mean.
- Javon Ringer graduates, meaning the primary focus of the offense will have to shift.
- Otis Wiley graduates. He was the key defensive player in generating positive turnover margin this season (another fabulous forced fumble today).
Positives:
- The schedule is favorable. No second BCS-level nonconference opponent (although neither Central nor Western are pushovers). No Ohio State.
- Brian Hoyer graduates, but the Keith Nichol era begins. And Kirk Cousins will be a very good back-up for the next three years (assuming Nichol ends up beating him out for the starting job).
- Three of five offensive linemen return (all on the left side), along with basically the entire receiving corps.
- Eight of 11 starters return on defense, including Greg Jones and Trevor Anderson. Plus Brett Swenson and Aaron Bates.
- A top-20 incoming recruiting class that includes nine 4-star players (two of them at running back).
Today’s result notwithstanding, it’s good to be a Spartan. And it should be for some time to come.
Filed in coffee talk, game recap8 responses so far
8 Responses to “Wrapping up the football season”
Stukaon 01 Jan 2009 at 11:39 pm 1Don’t count out Cousins just yet. The QB competition for next year should be a good one; I would not be surprised with either Cousins or Nichol getting the starting nod next fall.
The loss of Ringer will definitely hurt the run game, but Dantonio seems to adapt his gameplan pretty well according to his personnel (see the change after the loss of Devin Thomas). I trust that our offense will be less run-heavy next year.
The defense should continue to improve, and will hopefully mask any growing pains our relatively inexperienced offense will have in the early games.
Seeron 02 Jan 2009 at 12:24 am 2The one position we need improvement at more than any other, is receiving. Drops and mis-ran routes ruined what could have been a good passing game. Whatever Treadwell is doing, he gets them open with his schemes, but they can’t catch the balls.
HCon 02 Jan 2009 at 12:36 am 3Nice analysis and I agree with much of what you stated.
I really think there is 10 wins for this 2009 season in the schedule. I would really like to see back to back wins versus the weasels. 10 wins seems like a lot until one actually does a week to week guestimation of the outcomes.
Looking forward to the rest of this basketball season and the analyses on this site. Thanks and Happy 2009!
witless chumon 02 Jan 2009 at 7:00 am 4We lost one close game, KJ, the opener at Cal.
kjon 02 Jan 2009 at 8:36 am 5Good point, Witless. Although we were playing from behind for most of that game.
Stuka, I’m no QB expert, but Cousins strikes me as an ideal back-up (accurate, poised) but not necessarily the guy who can make big plays as a starter.
Anyone have a scouting report on Andrew Maxwell?
Chrison 02 Jan 2009 at 9:56 am 6I was very disapointed in the play calling by treadwell. Very little quick slants, screens, and passes out into the flat. It was obvious from the start that Hoyer was off and the line would not be able to hold Georgia. Next season could be much of the same. I say 9-3 with losses to PSU, Iowa, Wisky, and another New Years Day loss.
witless chumon 02 Jan 2009 at 10:33 am 7Next year’s schedule doesn’t look insurmountable.
09/05/09 vs. Montana State East Lansing, Mich. TBA
09/12/09 vs. Central Michigan East Lansing, Mich. TBA
09/19/09 at Notre Dame Notre Dame, Ind. TBA
09/26/09 at Wisconsin Madison, Wis. TBA
10/03/09 vs. Michigan East Lansing, Mich. TBA
10/10/09 at Illinois Champaign, Ill. TBA
10/17/09 vs. Northwestern East Lansing, Mich. TBA
10/24/09 vs. Iowa East Lansing, Mich. TBA
10/31/09 at Minnesota Minneapolis, Minn. TBA
11/07/09 vs. Western Michigan Detroit, Mich. TBA
11/14/09 at Purdue West Lafayette, Ind. TBA
11/21/09 vs. Penn State East Lansing, Mich. TB
Pretty sure wins are: Montana State, Northwestern, at Purdue, WMU. Probably wins: CMU, at ND, U of M, at Illinois, at Minnesota
Toss-ups: at Wisconsin, Iowa
Pretty sure losses: Penn State
Explanations: U of M is only probably because you never know in a rivalry game, WMU was pretty solid this year, but loses a huge amount, CMU will still have LeFevour so they’re a little scary
So, 8-4 would be my guess. If whichever young QB starts comes along slow, maybe 7-5. But a third straight winning season and when’s the last time that happened? If he plays like gangbusters and other things go right, the sky’s the limit with that schedule.
Tmanon 03 Jan 2009 at 1:05 am 8I was at the game. There were, I believe, three key moments that decided the game:
1. The first drive going for it on fourth and two at the thirty-seven. Given the very strong head wind (fifteen mph) a 54 yard field goal by even Sir Swenson was out. So the fact we lined up to punt was the start of a good decision. However, with such a headwind, the wise decision would have been to punt (I.e. A better chance of landing the ball within the 20 vs a touchback). Instead, the failed fake gave GA an extra 17 yds of field position, which I believe allowed them the field goal (the first team to score in this one was definitely going to have the advantage).
2. The coaching staff was obviously not on sync when our late first quarter drive, which resulted in a fourth and 1 on their forty resulted in a delay of game because we couldn’t decide to go for it or punt.(This compounded the previous poor decision to go for it on fourth and two and most surely gave the Georgia sideline a sense that MSU was not in “sync” as a team). It ultimately resulted in a five yd penalty for delay of game and we then had to punt (by the way, I was for going for it then as we had some momentum and had a much better chance of getting it.)
3. Keeping Cousions in the game over Hoyer. Note how MSU was able to effectively move the ball when Kirk was at the helm, however, the team stalled with Brian. I would have thought that after last year’s Champs Bowl loss, Brian would be looking to prove himself (does an athlete at this level need any more motivation? ).
Yet we went back to Brian and he seemed to just fold and collapse under pressure.
As for next year’s record, I see a 7 and 5 team. While we can pound our chest on the win over Michigan, and wins over ND and Wisconsin, I would ask you to look at their records (who DIDN’T beat UofM this year?!?!)…..let’s face it, we finished third in the conference behind the only two teams that showed any kind of talent, ability and quality. This was probably the most down year in the Big Ten since the ’70’s and we still couldn’t step up and win the conference. Meanwhile, the team we hired our head coach (Dantonio)from (Cincinati) plays in a BCS bowl.
Let’s hope next year we “find a way” to win the “big” games.