Minnesota Game Preview
Posted by kj on Tuesday, December 30th, 2008
A Terrific Tip-Off
You couldn’t have asked for a better game to start the conference season than Illinois’ 71-67 overtime win over Purdue tonight (in roughly a 76-possession game). This was an extremely hard fought game that went back and forth throughout, featured multiple moments of drama late in the game, and provided 5 minutes of bonus competition to boot.
At times, the Illinois guards looked completely overmatched against Purdue’s quicker guards, finding it difficult to just get into their half-court offense. Nevertheless, the Illini turned it over just 6 times and found enough ways to manufacture shots to stay in the game. Illinois shot 29-61 on 2-point attempts (47.5%). That was (just) enough in a game like this one. Big men Mike Tisdale and Mike Davis were the difference makers, converting 14 of the 29 shots they took.
Purdue, meanwhile, fell prey to what I had prognosticated earlier today:
The key for Purdue will be finding enough scoring to not drop a few games played in the 50s.
This game was tied at 56 at the end of regulation, and Purdue did indeed struggle to find scoring, putting up an abysmal shooting line of .426/.250/.556. The 12 missed free throws, in particular, came back to haunt the Boilermakers.
Purdue’s point guard situation remains an issue. Lewis Jackson and Keaton Grant combined for just 19 points on 22 FG attempts and 4 assists in 65 total minutes of play.
If the Big Ten title race is, in fact, a two-team race, then Purdue dropped an early service game to MSU tonight. But there are miles to go before we sleep. And our first mile may prove just as challenging as Purdue’s did for them . . .
Minnesota Game Preview
Wednesday at noon. Williams Arena, Minneapolis. BTN.
We’ll keep this one short as (1) I’m still in stat-analysis overload from the Big Ten preview post and (2) there are only 14 hours remaining before this game tips off.
Minnesota comes into Big Ten play with a perfect 12-0 record. That record’s been racked up against fairly spotty competition, though. Their signature win was a 70-64 defeat of Louisville in a game played in Arizona. Outside of that game, the Gophers have not played another top-75 opponents (as judged by Kenpom).
The strength of the team has been on offense, where Minnesota ranks 27th nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency. They’ve been particularly efficient in converting two-point shots, with forwards Damian Johnson, Colton Iverson, and Jamal Abu-Shamala all making more than 60% of their two-point attempts.
Junior guard Lawrence Westbrook leads the Gophers in scoring with 13.0 points/game, shooting 36.4% from 3-point range. Blake Hoffarber, he of the multiple ESPY-quality buzzer-beaters, has been extremely efficient in scoring 10.5 points/game: .556/.462/.750. And point guard Al Nolen’s been efficient distributing the ball, averaging 6.3 assists vs. just 1.5 turnovers per game.
Minnesota has been shakier on defense, but does excel at two things: blocking shots and stealing the ball. Johnson, Iverson, and 6′1″ freshman Ralph Sampson III all sport block percentages above 10.0%. And Nolen and Johnson have both posted steal percentages of 4.7%. The Gophers’ defensive weakness has been rebounding; they’ve allowed opponents to pull down 36.6% of missed shots.
As I mentioned in the conference season preview, the Gophers are extremely balanced. Nolen is the only player playing more than 57% of the team’s minutes, while 11 players have played at least 20% of the available minutes. MSU won’t be able to wear Minnesota down with its depth. They’ll need to play intelligently for 40 minutes to avoid turning the ball over and taking bad shots against a team that looks to take advantage of those mistakes.
At 6′7″ and 195 pounds, Damian Johnson could be a tough match-up for Raymar Morgan when MSU has the ball. With Delvon Roe presumably out, It’ll be interesting to see if Izzo sticks with the bigger lineup to get Morgan matched up with a smaller player. That strategy could have added benefits in terms of creating offensive rebounding opportunities. Once again, Marquise Gray looks to be a key figure, filling in for an injured frontcourt starter.
Kenpom predicts a 75-72 Gopher win in a 69-possession game. Time to start telling those statistics to shut up.
Filed in game preview10 responses so far
10 Responses to “Minnesota Game Preview”
huberton 31 Dec 2008 at 8:00 am 1Key key game, today. The last couple years, the first away games have been disasters for MSU, and the big ten champs each of the last couple years were teams that did not lose to mid to bottom table teams, like Minny or Northwestern. If MSU drops this one, I see 6,7 losses again and another third place finish. If they win both of these first two games, then I predict this team really is different and a championship is within its sights.
Will they win? Talent wise, it is no contest. But we all know that between a lack of consistency on MSU’s part and those crazy big ten refs, anything is possible. Two big questions for me: how does Walton play, and has the defense improved over the christmas break. I don’t have statistics to back it up, but I believe Walton has often been the culprit in these away games with silly turnovers and zero offense. as for defense, well, if Minny makes more than 5 threes, MSU loses…
TMadison25on 31 Dec 2008 at 8:52 am 2That Purdue line was even worse… .381/.250/.556
Forgot that tip-off was at noon… Must leave work early. Worried that Roe isn’t involved. Spartans need to start off on a high-note.
kjon 31 Dec 2008 at 8:56 am 3The first number is 2pt%, not overall FG%, T. But their shooting performance was definitely u-g-l-y either way.
Chrison 31 Dec 2008 at 9:12 am 4Bruce Weber completely outcoached Matt Painter down the stretch. Those 2 plays he called after timeouts at then end of regulation were brilliant. I couldn’t believe they called the foul on Illinois at the end. If I was an Illinois fan I would’ve broke my t.v. Illinois seems to have had bad luck every year. I was glad to see them win and I expect them to finish in the top 5 of the Big Ten. I cannot remember a season where the Big Ten was this wide open. I could see State winning the Big Ten or finishing outside the top 5. Should be a fun season to watch with lots of close games.
spartanproduceron 31 Dec 2008 at 10:03 am 5Hubert, you may be placing way too much importance on a road game at a place that’s tough to win at. Looking at our road schedule, this is either the 2nd or 3rd toughest road game we have (Purdue and Illinois look to be the only ones in a tougher environment). A loss here doesn’t guarantee a fifth place finish, just like a win doesn’t guarantee a league title.
If we win all of our home games and go 5-4 on the road, we’ll win the league, so it’s certainly reasonable that Minnesota could be one of those losses.
Not trying to be all negative like many internet types (and actually I think we’ll win) but a little balance is nice. Realistically we need to split the two road games this week, then go to a stretch where we finally get some home games (at which point I think we’ll really improve).
TMadison25on 31 Dec 2008 at 10:31 am 6Right, 2pt%. That makes sense now. Weird that Purdue could’ve won with those numbers by hitting both late free throws.
spartanproducer… I agree that it won’t make or break the season, but getting off to a great start in Big Ten play after Purdue slipped would build up some momentum. That game at Crisler will be tough as well. Sucks we don’t play them at Breslin.
rook34on 31 Dec 2008 at 11:19 am 7I really don’t expect a win today. Delvon being out means either Gray or Ibok have to step up on the road, and I don’t see that happening.
Biggest issue I see will be adjusting to the Big 10 road officiating, and while I think we’ll be all right at that by the end of the year, it’s not going to happen today.
Gophers double us in free throw attempts and win by 7-8, pulling away by hitting free throws at the end.
No reason we can’t win, but I don’t see it today. Split the first two on the road and get home to get ready for the Buckeyes and Kansas.
Benon 31 Dec 2008 at 2:17 pm 8Now _that’s_ how to start the conference season. Fantastic second half.
huberton 31 Dec 2008 at 3:32 pm 9spartanproducer — I know what you mean, but these early away games have put MSU in a hole so often in the past. Also, the eventual Big Ten Champion ends up winning these games, and let’s face it these are the games that have killed MSU’s championship chances for the last couple years.
Having said all that — great win today, with solid defense and — as far as I could tell without looking at the box score — very few turnovers. Lucas was just dynamite, and I would not underestimate Suton’s role, with his usual quiet double double and solid interior defense. Now, to confirm in Evanston!
spartanproduceron 31 Dec 2008 at 4:46 pm 10agreed, we were able to beat Minny at their own game (defense and toughness) yet had more athletes which enabled us to kill them on the boards and create more buckets (namely Lucas who they had no matchup for)
Your points about starting in a hole are true, and now we have a chance to start with two road wins, which would give us a huge leg up on the rest of the league.