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Earlier this week, Sports Illustrated released its annual college basketball preview edition.  In conjunction with the release of the preview issue, one of SI’s senior basketball writers, Grant Wahl, was kind enough to allow we to interview him about the upcoming season.

Of all the sports writers in the universe, Mr. Wahl is the one of whom I am most envious.  He gets to cover both of my two favorite sporting events: the NCAA Basketball Tournament and the World Cup.  These are the two great championship events that include both towering giants (UNC/Brazil) and scrappy underdogs (Davidson/USA)–hence the drama and beauty that inevitably ensues in both competitions.

Grant’s work is notable for the depth to which he explores college basketball trends.  Remember that piece he wrote on the Dribble Drive Motion Offense that we all read in March?  (Let’s not talk about what happened in the NCAA tournament game that MSU played shortly thereafter.)

Below are the questions I posed to Grant, along with my summaries of his responses.  This interview took place via phone, rather than e-mail, so my distinct lack of journalistic skills (poor transcribing, no audio recording) are evident.  The (nonbolded) words below are an attempt to summarize his thoughts, not mine.  I’ve tried to capture the main points Grant shared in his responses.

I note that both the SI preview edition and you personally have Purdue ranked ahead of MSU going into the season.  The real question, though, is whether one or both teams will appear in your Magic Eight.  What factors will you be looking at for each team during the nonconference season to make that determination come January?

As it turns out, Grant will be taking a leave of absence from SI for most of next year to spend time with his wife, who’s currently working in South Africa, and work on a soccer-related book.  So there will be no Magic Eight, I’m afraid.  (The Magic Eight is the list of eight teams Grant issues each year from which he “guarantees” the national champion will emerge.)

He did share what he thinks the major factors are for MSU and Purdue in terms of developing as teams during the nonconference season.  For MSU, he pointed to the major offensive adjustment that needs to occur with the departure of Drew Neitzel.  Much of the offense last year was focused on finding ways to get Neitzel the ball.  This season, MSU has multiple guys who can take over in a given game, so they’ll need to adjust to that balance.

He thinks MSU could be a little “tougher” this year, particularly if Delvon Roe continues to get healthier, providing an added rebounding presence.  When Grant talked to Coach Izzo a couple weeks ago, Izzo seemed optimistic, but at the same time he didn’t want to rush Roe, even with the all the big nonconference games on MSU’s schedule.

Regarding Purdue, Grant noted “they don’t have a lot down low.”  But there are really tough defensively, particularly “in keeping guys out of the lane.”  The continued development of JaJuan Johnson inside will be a key.

He also thinks it will be interesting to see if Robbie Hummel, as good as he was last year, takes a “leap” this year as a sophomore (the year most college players usually see a leap in performance).  Purdue’s got some great shooters (Hummel, Keaton Grant, E’Twaun Moore), but they’ll have to “continue to be smart” in taking shots.  Grant wonders whether Matt Painter wouldn’t like Hummel to be a little less “restrained” on offense and take a few more shots.

Arguably the top nonconference game in the nation this year will take place down the road at Ford Field, as MSU takes on North Carolina in the Big Ten-ACC Challenge next month.  Outside of Tyler Hansborough’s right shin, do you see any chinks in UNC’s armor that Michigan State might be able to exploit?

Grant didn’t mince words, saying it’s “gonna be tough” for MSU to win.  The injury bug seems to be UNC’s only weakness at this point, with Marcus Ginyard, one of the best defenders in the country, also out for the time being and freshman Tyler Zeller injuring his left wrist last night.

Like many observers, he thinks UNC and MSU are both teams that could be back in Detroit for the Final Four next April.  They’re both deep, talented, and want to play up-tempo.  He does think MSU will want to keep the game from getting “out of control,” which might play to UNC’s advantage.  Michigan State might be able to utilize the home court-type advantage, “put a body” on the Tarheels, and “try to slow them down a little.”

It’s definitely the nonconference game most national writers are most looking forward to.

You and your SI colleagues have been early adopters of tempo-free statistics among college basketball writers.  As you talk to college coaches, what’s your sense of the extent to which they use more sophisticated statistical data to guide personnel and strategic decisions?  Are there any coach(es) in particular that seem to be ahead of the curve in this respect?

Grant pointed out that the concept of tempo-free statistics actually started in the coaching world–with Dean Smith tracking points per possessions when he was the coach at Air Force in 1950s and later at North Carolina.  PPP is a stat that Roy Williams routinely looks at during the halftimes of UNC’s games.

He said we might be surprised at the number of coaches (although probably still a minority) who look at the stats on kenpom.com and noted that several coaches have been pleasantly surprised when he pointed out that the data was available.

Memphis and Gonzaga are two other high-profile teams he’s aware utilize tempo-free data in their decision making.  The Director of Basketball Ops at Gonzaga, Jerry Krause, (not to be confused with the Bulls executive) is a coaching innovator, a prolific author, and someone who uses the PPP concept.

Finally, I can’t help but ask one soccer-related question.  Which international soccer player does MSU point guard Kalin Lucas most remind you of?  How about Tom Izzo?  Is there a soccer coach who reminds you of him in terms of coaching style?

He compared Lucas to Argentinian and FC Barcelona star Lionel Messi–a player who plays low to the ground, never stops going, and looks to score.  (Check out some Messi highlights here.)

Regarding Izzo, Grant came up with a slightly more obscure comparison: German coach Otto Rehhagel, who led Greece to the 2004 Euro championship by preaching toughness and the need to outwork your opponent.  (Izzo and Otto; makes sense I suppose.)  “Hard nosed” is the term Grant applied to both coaches.

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In closing, I want to thank Mr. Wahl for taking the time to do this interview (if he happens to be reading) and apologize for anything I may have misconstrued in the process of getting this into written form.  It was a thrill to talk to a nationally-recognized writer I’ve admired for some time.

(See, we bloggers aren’t above praising mainstream media types when appropriate.  And, by “praising,” I mean “acting like a starstruck teenage girl.”)

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