Good News/Bad News
Posted by kj on Saturday, November 8th, 2008
Bad news first: Our road to the Rose Bowl just got more complicated.
Good news: We’re in first place! All alone, for the time being.
| TEAM | CONF | OVERALL |
| *-Michigan State | 6-1 | 9-2 |
| *-Penn State | 5-1 | 9-1 |
| *-Ohio State | 5-1 | 8-2 |
| *-Minnesota | 3-3 | 7-3 |
| *-Northwestern | 3-3 | 7-3 |
| *-Iowa | 3-3 | 6-4 |
| Illinois | 3-3 | 5-5 |
| x-Michigan | 2-4 | 3-7 |
| Wisconsin | 2-5 | 5-5 |
| x-Indiana | 1-5 | 3-7 |
| x-Purdue | 1-5 | 3-7 |
With Iowa’s upset of Penn State, a trip to Pasadena now requires both of the following:
- An MSU upset of Penn State in Happy Valley two weeks from now.
- An Ohio State loss either on the road to Illinois next week or at home to Michigan in two weeks.
So start preparing yourself for the possiblity of rooting for our friends in Ann Arbor to pull off the upset in Columbus on the 22nd.
More realistically, Tampa now appears to be a more likely desination than Orlando. Which sounds A-OK to me.
Filed in news11 responses so far
11 Responses to “Good News/Bad News”
mjos22on 08 Nov 2008 at 7:43 pm 1We need Ball State, Boise State, and Utah to lose. The BCS rulebook then says that if two teams from a BCS conference are ranked in the top 14 of the BCS, they both get a BCS berth. So if OSU wins out, and MSU beats PSU, MSU gets an at-large BCS berth (likely, since we were #18 prior to this weekend, and teams will lose (#15 LSU just did)).
http://www.bcsfootball.org/bcsfb/eligibility
Its complicated, but we don’t want strange stuff to happen (Oregon State must lose, and it would also be nice if the above listed non-BCS teams lost as well).
Of course, all of this means nothing if MSU loses to PSU.
mjos22on 08 Nov 2008 at 8:51 pm 2Further clarification of the BCS, taken from another site: The following at large bids would be spoken for:
An SEC Team
A Big Twelve Team
One of the non-BCS champions
USC (If Oregon State wins the Pac 10)
If USC wins the Pac 10, then the final spot would be between any team with at least 9 wins ranked in the top 14 not in the SEC or Big Twelve. That pool would likely include the Big Ten runner up and the other non-BCS teams. The BCS would likely select the bigger school.
Since MSU and PSU are both ranked higher than any other BCS school, the chances of the Big Ten getting that final at-large (assuming Oregon State loses along the way) is fairly decent.
mjos22on 08 Nov 2008 at 8:53 pm 3*higher than any other BCS school, outside of the Big 12 and SEC — is how that should read.
kjon 08 Nov 2008 at 9:52 pm 4We wouldn’t automatically get a BCS slot if we finished #14 or higher. We’d just be eligible as an at-large team. Right?
SpartanDanon 08 Nov 2008 at 11:46 pm 5There’s nothing automatic except for conference champions, Notre Dame, and the highest-ranked non-BCS team. There will be three at-larges, two of which will undoubtedly go to the Big XII and SEC. If Oregon State wins the Pac-10, USC will get the third. If not, it will come down to a Big Ten team (if there’s one eligible) and a second non-BCS team.
If we beat PSU, OSU wins out, and USC wins the Pac-10, we have a decent shot at an at-large (it’s not automatic, but I doubt a second non-BCS team would be a bigger draw). But because of the at-large situation, there’s a very good chance that even if we lose, we go to the Capital One Bowl. There’s a slim possibility that some 5-3 team would get picked over us, mostly because we were in Orlando last year and a new team might be a better draw. But I think we pretty much locked up a New Year’s game today.
mjos22on 08 Nov 2008 at 11:51 pm 6If there are fewer than 10 automatic bids, then yes, it seems it would be an automatic MSU bid if we finished #14 or higher:
“If fewer than 10 teams are eligible for [automatic] selection, then the Bowls can select as an at-large team any Football Bowl Subdivision team that is bowl-eligible, has won at least nine regular-season games and is among the top 18 teams in the final BCS Standings subject to the two-team limit noted above and **also subject to the following: (1) if any conference has two or more teams in the top 14, then two of those teams must be selected** [and (2) from the teams ranked 15-18, a bowl can select only a team from a conference that has fewer than two teams in the top 14].”
But we would need to be in the top 14, and fewer than 10 eligible automatic bids:
2 Big 12 (1 in NC game)
2 SEC (1 in NC game)
1 Big Ten
1 Big East
1 Pac 10
1 ACC
Potentially: 1 non-BCS undefeated
Those would be the (9) automatics. Assuming it stays that way, and Oregon State doesn’t win out and claim another automatic, I think they would have to take PSU or MSU as an at-large, as the 2nd team from a conference with two top 14 teams (Big 12 and SEC are only allowed two BCS teams each, no Big East, Pac10, or ACC team would rank higher than PSU or MSU, and I’m making the assumption that the MWC will not finish with two teams in the top 14).
Confusing…and we just need to let it play out, and hope we beat PSU. But I believe what I wrote above is correct, about MSU getting the automatic at-large…
wife of a spartanon 09 Nov 2008 at 7:26 am 7Wow, thanks for clarifying. I really thought we would have no
chance for a second BCS bowl if we beat Penn State. Makes
sense, and of course we are all cheering for an OSU loss.
Agree absolutely that going into Penn State, guaranteed at least
a share of the B10 title IF we win is a wonderful situation which i
did not predict at all.
2 things, we are really winning with defense and the depth of the secondary is absolutely amazing for any long-time MSU fans. Have
to give about 7-8 players and Harlan Barnett and the other coaches
huge props. Most MSU teams in the last 8 years or so would have
lost at least 2 more games just because of Roderick Jenrette not
playing. Also Mike Bacon (former walk on) has stepped in for key
relief on the O line with injuries, including Nitchman this week and
really done a good job. I think it is significant that the defense really
locked down (as pointed out in the Purdue recap except for their very
last drive when game almost out of reach) even though the offense
could not get on track at times.
Lastly, my husband said George Perles must really be grinning ear
to ear as when Penn State joined the league, he set up the rivalry
and the last game of the season, hoping it would determine the
B10 title and now (finally) it does!
Let’s hope the Land grant trophy stays in East Lansing though
admittedly much harder even than last year to win as in Happy Valley
and Penn State is better. However, we are markedly better than
last year too.
hard to wait 2 weeks, the rest will help the players physically and
you have to believe the coaching staff will use it to help them mentally
and with more self-scouting than can be done in a one week prep.
SpartanDanon 09 Nov 2008 at 12:59 pm 8I think you’re misreading that a little, mjos: That’s the rule they added last year to handle the case where a couple of conferences place so many teams in the top 14 that there aren’t 10 teams eligible. There’s nothing about automatic bids in the part you cited. The full paragraphs:
“If there are fewer than 10 automatic qualifiers, then the bowls will select at-large participants to fill the remaining berths. An at-large team is any Football Bowl Subdivision team that is bowl-eligible and meets the following requirements:
A. Has won at least nine regular-season games, and
B. Is among the top 14 teams in the final BCS Standings.
No more than two teams from a conference may be selected, regardless of whether they are automatic qualifiers or at-large selections.
If fewer than 10 teams are eligible for selection, then the Bowls can select as an at-large team any Football Bowl Subdivision team that is bowl-eligible, has won at least nine regular-season games and is among the top 18 teams in the final BCS Standings subject to the two-team limit noted above and also subject to the following: (1) if any conference has two or more teams in the top 14, then two of those teams must be selected and (2) from the teams ranked 15-18, a bowl can select only a team from a conference that has fewer than two teams in the top 14. ”
The latter scenario kicks in only if you can’t pick four at-large teams (counting the automatic #3 or #4 if one of them didn’t win their conference and a potential automatic for a non-BCS team as at-larges) from among the top 14. If that happens, then all eligible teams among the top 14 must be chosen. But that won’t happen this year, because the Big East (and possibly the ACC) champion won’t be in the top 14. So that will leave at least 9, maybe 10 teams for the four at-large spots. It’s virtually impossible that only four teams would actually be eligible out of that – it would require that only four conferences be represented among that group, and not two from the same non-BCS conference. (And even then, if three Big Ten teams end up there – fairly likely if Penn State beats Indiana and OSU and MSU both win out – the bowls get to pick whether to take us or PSU.)
If we lose, no chance at a BCS bid. If we win and OSU drops one, we’re going to the Rose Bowl. So the only scenario in which at-large is a possibility is if we beat PSU and OSU wins out. In that scenario, here’s what I see happening:
- 1 non-BCS team will get an auto-bid. All they have to do is stay in the top 16, because either the Big East or ACC champ will be lower.
- The Big XII and SEC will get at-large bids. I don’t think Bama or Florida can fall far enough to avoid being eligible, and if one ends up in the title game (likely), the Sugar Bowl will take the other immediately. Similar scenario with the Fiesta Bowl and Big XII.
- If Oregon State wins out, they get the Pac-10 auto-bid and USC will be chosen as an at-large. No second BCS game for the Big Ten in that scenario.
- If USC gets the Pac-10 auto-bid instead (setting up a Rose Bowl rematch), the remaining teams eligible for the final at-large will include at least one non-BCS team (maybe two), us, and probably Penn State. Oregon State won’t be eligible unless they get the auto-bid (they’ll have too few wins even if they make the top 14), and the chances of an ACC or Big East at-large team getting that high are just about nil. Given our win at Happy Valley in this scenario, I think we’d be ahead of PSU in the pecking order, so it comes down to whether they want us or a second non-BCS team (probably Boise State if we assume Utah beats BYU to go unbeaten and claim the non-BCS auto-bid). I like our chances here.
To summarize: If Ohio State and Oregon State both win out, we’re not getting a BCS bid. If we win and either one of them loses, we’re likely to get one (it’s automatic if Ohio State loses, not automatic but very likely if Oregon State loses).
Rewertson 09 Nov 2008 at 1:36 pm 9SpartanDan, I now understand this whole scheme they call the “BCS” a whole lot more than I did before I read that post.
Thank you.
If MSU were to get the at-large bid (via a victory over penn st. and an oregon st. loss), what bowl would be the most likely? I would imagine the Fiesta Bowl would want Utah (if they got the auto bid) simply because of proximity to the school. The Rose Bowl is obviously out, which leaves the Orange and the Sugar. I think the Orange Bowl would be more likely, given that MSU has proved many times they travel very well to the state of Florida for bowl games. I do not know the other auto tie-ins though, so I’m not sure how it would work out.
SpartanDanon 09 Nov 2008 at 3:58 pm 10If we got an at-large, here’s what would probably happen:
Title game would be Big XII champion vs. SEC champion. The Rose Bowl would be a USC-Ohio State rematch. The Orange Bowl gets the ACC champion. Five spots would be left, with the Fiesta and Sugar Bowls getting first choice to fill the spots vacated by the title game participants. The available teams would be Utah (guaranteed, assuming they’re the top non-BCS, which seems likely), a Big XII at-large, an SEC at-large, the Big East champ, and us (assuming we get taken ahead of Boise State and PSU). The five open spots would be chosen in this order: Fiesta and Sugar (with the Fiesta going first if a Big XII team is #1, Sugar first if an SEC team is #1, although whichever goes first can’t take the a team from the other’s conference unless the other agrees to it), Fiesta, Sugar, Orange. (The first two are replacement picks for the title game; the last three depend on the order in which the bowls are played and vary from year to year.)
The Fiesta and Sugar Bowls would probably take the Big XII and SEC at-larges, respectively, with their first picks. They’re not as big on tradition as the Rose Bowl, but keeping the usual bowl tie-ins is a plus and they’d be the best teams available at this point anyway.
That leaves us, Utah, and the Big East champ for the last three selections. I honestly don’t know who the Fiesta takes out of that bunch – could be Utah because of geographic considerations, though we might be the most attractive choice because of a relatively large fan base. I’m fairly sure the Fiesta would not take the Big East champ.
Assuming the Fiesta takes Utah, the Sugar Bowl gets next choice; given the SEC partisans’ love of Big 10 bashing, the Sugar Bowl might take a Big East champion (even though the Big East is far worse than the Big Ten) over us. The Orange gets whoever’s left. After this, they can agree to shuffle teams, based on potential rematches and whatever they think might increase the appeal of the pairings, but this isn’t likely to affect things.
So if we get a BCS at-large, I think we’re about 50% for the Fiesta, 40% for the Orange, and 10% for the Sugar Bowl. From a perspective of best matchup for us, the Orange Bowl would probably be best (I don’t think the ACC champion would be anywhere near as tough as one of Texas/TTU/Oklahoma in the Fiesta or Alabama/Florida in the Sugar).
kjon 09 Nov 2008 at 10:35 pm 11Thanks, SpartanDan et al., for your exhaustive research on the BCS scenarios. I’m starting to understand the argument that “The BCS system is good because it generates endless discussions among college football fans”!
(I am seriously grateful for the research.)