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A statistical look at Michigan State basketball, with a dash of football talk

FO on Ringer

Posted by kj on Monday, September 29th, 2008

Football Outsiders, the leading purveyors of advanced football statistics, are concerned about Javon Ringer’s workload to date, comparing him to current Lion Kevin Smith, who carried the ball 450 times for Central Florida last season:

One of the factors at least partially mitigating Smith’s huge workload last year was that he was playing in Conference USA against a relatively smaller, less talented group of players than he would in the NFL. Ringer really has no such excuse; although he hasn’t got into the most difficult part of his Big Ten conference schedule, he’s playing some of the largest — and most talented — defensive lines in the nation. Since 1996, Conference USA has sent 36 front seven players to the NFL; the Big Ten’s sent 118.

(One of FO’s basic working theories is that “A running back with 370 or more carries during the regular season will usually suffer either a major injury or a loss of effectiveness the following year, unless he is named Eric Dickerson.”)

FO also notes the decline in Ringer’s average yards/carry from 5.9 last year to 4.8 this year.  While I certainly agree that Ringer’s workload is a cause for concern for MSU fans–and won’t be good for his NFL draft status– I would note that at least part of the reason for the decline in his yards/carry is that he’s now used in short-yardage situations, whereas Caulcrick handled nearly all those attempts in previous years.

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7 Responses to “FO on Ringer”

  1. Mark in DCon 30 Sep 2008 at 1:54 pm 1

    At this point I have to almost think that Ringer is asking to carry the ball this much. I really can’t see the coaches working him this hard on their own knowing that he’ll be wearing down right about the time the schedule toughens up. Either they have absolutely no faith in Hoyer, the receivers, or any of the backup running backs and feel they have no choice, or Ringer wants as many carries as necessary to keep his name in the Heisman race.

    He is exceptionally strong, so maybe he thinks he can handle the load. Maybe he’s right, but I wouldn’t want to bet my NFL future on it if I were him. If his heavy workload is mandated by the coaches then I almost think we have to re-evaluate Dantonio – he’s risking the kid’s pro future for his own benefit. I realize winning is important, but it has to be balanced with looking out for the future and health of the players to the extent possible. One or two forty carry games would not cause concern, but when it is happening week after week, especially in games we are winning handily, one wonders why they can’t get a backup in there once in a while. I am as far from an insider as anyone, but I don’t think the coaches would be working him this hard unless he were insisting on it.

  2. DP99on 30 Sep 2008 at 3:23 pm 2

    I think the article had some very good points. I continue to believe 35+ carries a game in a BCS conference is unsustainable. Understood that Ringer is strong and all (he does look bigger than even last year), but I’m not sure we can expect one player to perform 20% more than anyone in the top echelon has performed ever. Also understood he may be the one asking for it, but it’s up to the coach to determine the best tactics and execution for the player and team. Players always want to play more, and will try playing hurt. Sometimes the coach has to step in for the players own good.

    Is Anderson really THAT terrible at pass protection?

  3. witless chumon 01 Oct 2008 at 10:04 am 3

    It might be noted, though, that Kevin Smith seems to have suffered no visible ill effects from his 450 carry season and he probably helped his draft position by getting more pub than usual for UCF’s starting running back.

    I doubt the sample size is big enough to check, but I’d suspect that 21 to 23 year olds getting 370 plus versus college competition is a lot different from players in their mid to late 20s getting the carries against NFL competition. I think the length of the season makes the same number more punishing in the pros, too.

    Even with this, though, I still agree that it would make sense to give Ringer a breather. Especially, early in games, if he splits with other guys, he can come in and be even more effective in the fourth quarter.

    I don’t understand the strategy or rationale. Even if Ringer is constantly demanding the ball, it’s Coach D’s job to do what’s best for the team and I don’t think that’s having Ringer not in tip top shape when MSU plays OSU, U of M, Wisconsin and Penn State.

  4. Spartalyticalon 01 Oct 2008 at 10:11 am 4

    What were Smith’s carries through five games last year?

  5. Mark in DCon 01 Oct 2008 at 10:18 am 5

    I agree, and I think that using him up at the beginning of the year is really not good for the team as a whole in the long run. We could have spelled him extensively in the EMU game, and probably the Florida Atlantic game as well. Against Cal he really didn’t have that many carries. I don’t mind him running up the carries against ND because that is a rivalry game you really want to win, and the Indiana game was not a blowout and was our Big 10 opener, so maybe you could make an argument for using him a lot there.

    Looking at our schedule going forward, we have Iowa and Northwestern, which are both winnable, and then Ohio State (probable loss). If we run him 35-40 times in all those games he’ll be right at 300 carries on the season, with 4 Big 10 games (including U of M) remaining. This is our best chance to beat U of M in a long time. Having a tired Ringer would put us at a severe disadvantage in that game.

    I know U of M is not the whole season, but it would be really nice to beat them this year, and to at least have a chance to win against Wisconsin and Penn State, who are (perceived at least) two of the top teams in the league. If Ringer keeps his current pace he will be 55 carries beyond his career maximum for a season by the time we face U of M! He can’t possibly maintain that pace without losing a step by then IMO. Maybe he’ll prove me wrong, but if I were the coaches I would not be taking that chance.

  6. kjon 01 Oct 2008 at 11:26 am 6

    Smith had 146 carries through five games last season–41 fewer than Ringer has this year.

    http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/.....rId=173482

  7. DP99on 01 Oct 2008 at 12:44 pm 7

    witless, looks like we are all in agreement here. But also note that the FO comment was that Ringer will not be running all those carries against typical college competition. He will be running it against competition full of front seven NFL talent. So in some sense it will be sort of like running all those carries in the NFL — a little bit.