Here’s the link you reference:

http://yetanotherbasketblog.bl.....ament.html

MSU has seven more wins in the NCAA Tournament over the last decade than they’d be expected to based on their seeds each year.

So, like so much about being an MSU fan over the last half decade, it all boils down to how much you value the tournament vs. the regular season.

This looks like decent evidence for the claim that MSU is typically overrated by the media at the start of the season. But I seem to recall some numbers that show MSU has outperformed its seeding in the NCAA tournament pretty dramatically in the Izzo era. (I think you linked to this some time ago, kj) So there is decent evidence to suggest that MSU is typically significantly underrated by the tournament selection committee in March.

Again–”overrated” and “underrated” are relations, not properties.

Besides, it’s hard to be underrated when everyone always thinks you’re good early on. I’d rather have the high expectations than not be ranked early.

1) Looking through the names on the lists–especially the “Since 2000″ list–this is not a bad list to be on. All the elite programs–who of course have higher expectations going into most seasons–are there.

2) MSU’s #1 position on the 2000 list (and 1990 list since the post-2000 years dominate the average on the 1990 list) reflects the inability to maintain the program at the level the 1999-2001 teams reached. Part of the blame goes to early defections that weren’t necessarily predictable (Randolph after just one year; Taylor after two years; Lorbek after one year; Brandon Cotton after like two games) and may not have been fully accounted for when the pollsters voted in the following preseason. Some of it is simply underachieving by some pretty talented teams.

3) As noted on the Statsheet site, using the post-tournament coaches’ poll results would probably help MSU a bit as they have put together some decent tournament runs in years when they underperformed in the regular season.