" title="Spartans Weblog">Spartans Weblog

This is the last in the series of posts looking at each returning scholarship player’s performance this past season. And we’ve saved the most enigmatic Spartan for last: Marquise Gray.

Gray came into the program in 2004 as a 5-star recruit expected to use his off-the-charts athleticism to become a major star. Needless to say, that hasn’t happened. Instead, he’s shown very little development over his four years on campus (including a redshirt year), as indicated by his playing time:

• 2005-06: 12.9 minutes/game
• 2006-07: 18.7 minutes/game
• 2007-08: 13.1 minutes/game

Given the relatively small amount of playing time Gray received this season–particularly in conference and postseason play–we’ll look at trends in his statistical performance over his career, rather than within the context of the past season. Most of the stats below have been pulled from the fabulous statsheet.com.

Scoring

• 2005-06: 3.0 points/game, 52.1 FG%, 36.8 FT%, 14.0 Shot%
• 2006-07: 6.8 points/game, 57.8 FG%, 59.0 FT%, 20.6 Shot%
• 2007-08: 4.3 points/game, 60.7 FG%, 65.0 FT%, 16.5 Shot%

Most of these numbers actually look pretty good. Gray has increased both his field goal and free throw shooting percentages in each of the last two seasons. The problem is that he hasn’t shown any ability to expand the types of shots he can take. That last stat above is the estimated percentage of the team’s FG attempts he’s taken while he’s on the floor. After an uptick in this number as a sophomore, the figure fell back to 16.5% this last season. This implies that the shot’s he’s taking are mostly dunks and other high-percentage attempts–most of which he hasn’t created himself.

Ball-Handling

• 2005-06: 5.8 Assist%, 23.9 TO%
• 2006-07: 6.7 Assist%, 25.9 TO%
• 2007-08: 4.9 Assist%, 31.0 TO%

The second problem that Gray’s shooting percentage numbers mask is his increasing propensity to turn the ball over when he gets anywhere near the basket. A turnover rate of 31.0% implies Gray gave the ball up every 16th possession he was on the floor this season. Those are bad numbers for a point guard, let alone a big guy who rarely touches the ball in a contested position. Gray has shown flashes of ability to score in the low post over his career, but those instances were overwhelmed by the propensity to turn the ball over when he got the ball in offensive sets.

Rebounding

• 2005-06: 14.4 OffReb%, 19.6 DefReb%
• 2006-07: 14.5 OffReb%, 22.1 DefReb%
• 2007-08: 11.2 OffReb%, 21.4 DefReb%

Gray did continue to do the one thing he’s always done well this season: rebound the ball defensively. He would have ranked third in the conference in defensive rebounding percentage (just behind Suton) if he had played enough minutes to qualify. His offensive rebounding % fell off but was still top-ten quality.

Defense

• 2005-06: 1.1 Steal%, 4.4 Block%
• 2006-07: 1.9 Steal%, 4.3 Block%
• 2007-08: 1.3 Steal%, 2.2 Block%

Gray’s block and steal numbers have never been great for a player with his athleticism, and both numbers dipped this past season from the prior year. Further, there’s no stat to show what I’d anecdotally say was Gray’s biggest problem this year: mental errors on defense that resulted in easy baskets for the opposition. This is what I had to say about Gray after the Big Ten Tournament game against Ohio State:

Marquise Gray is now officially a complete liability on the court. He played only 6 minutes after leaving Koufos wide open in the first half for a 3-pointer and long 2-pointer for absolutely no reason other than apparently not realizing Koufos could shoot the ball.

If not for the lack of defensive intensity, Izzo could probably live with Gray’s offensive limitations–particularly in light of his rebounding prowess. But Gray basically played himself out of the playing rotation this year. His average minutes per game fell from 17.5 in nonconference play to 11.8 in conference play (including the BTT).

Gray played a total of just 7 minutes in the 3 NCAA Tournament games, partially due to a sprained toe and a knee injury for which he underwent surgery after the season. Those injuries were the latest in a string of injuries Gray has suffered as a Spartan–something Izzo has pointed to as a factor in Gray’s disappointing play relative to his talent.

Gray still has a chance to be a major contributor in his senior season. Suton will man one of the big man spots for 30 minutes a game. We hope Delvon Roe will be ready to play most of the minutes at the other spot right off the bat, but you can’t take that for granted. Neither Ibok nor Herzog seem likely to regularly play 15-20 minutes as the first big man off the bench. Gray’s likely competitor for playing time will be freshman Draymond Green. If Gray can just limit the mental errors at both ends of the court, his rebounding ability alone should earn him a decent amount of playing time.

Whether Gray can finally find a consistent level of mental intensity in his fifth year in the program is a pretty big question mark, though. He’s clearly a guy with a passion for the game (as evidenced by his sometimes overexuberant celebrations after dunks) and a willingness to play hard (as evidenced by his rebounding stats). Putting it all together in a year when MSU has high hopes for hanging a banner or two would be a great finish to what has been a fairly underwhelming college career to date.

Tags: marquise gray