Tuesday Night Links, AKA “Recruiting talk returns like a bad rash”
Posted by kj on Tuesday, May 20th, 2008
Much-maligned Detroit Country Day center DaShonte Riley has committed to Georgetown. Riley plummeted to #111 in Rival’s latest ranking of 2009 prospects. Nix is #108. Sherman is #130. As previously indicated, I’m not a recruiting expert by any stretch of the imagination, but it seems like Izzo needs a wing player in the 2009 class to balance out perimeter players vs. inside guys over the next few years.
On the topic of Rivals rankings, Hoops Marinara (a Wisconsin basketball blog) has a breakdown of the Big Ten’s 2008 recruiting class. The introductory paragraph sums things up:
When Rivals.com released its final Class of 2008 rankings, the Big Ten sat fifth among conferences with 16 of the Top 150 recruits. That number is especially interesting because of how much talent the region produces. There are a total of 30 players from states that contain a member university . . .
The post notes that the IU decommitments following Sampson’s ouster hurt these numbers somewhat. Regardless, the apparent exodus of talent from the Midwest is disconcerting–although less disconcerting for MSU, which got one top-150 guy each from Michigan, Ohio, and Wisconsin.
On a positive note for the Big Ten, the conference already has 15 verbal commitments from the Rivals Top 150 for 2009–the most of any conference.
The LSJ had a profile of Jamil Wilson in Sunday’s paper. Not a lot of new information. Wilson certainly has an impressive list of top four schools at this point: Duke, UCLA, Kansas, MSU.
Now for something to make you feel really creeped out about college basketball recruiting–and the sport generally: this piece by Mike DeCourcy on the O.J. Mayo situation. DeCourcy’s conclusion is basically that the entire sport of college basketball is corrupt. College athletes have become commodities and there’s not much anyone can do anything about it, like changing the one-and-done rule or expecting 18-year old kids to resist being treated like celebrities.
While DeCourcy may overstate the case somewhat–people are ultimately responsible for their decisions–his fundamental point, I’m sad to say, is correct. Big-time college sports is on a collision course for disaster at some point (example: a team potentially having to forfeit a national championship due to an eligibility issue). You simply can’t expect to generate as much revenue as Division 1 football and basketball do today and, at the same time, keep the athletes themselves in some sort of bubble of unadulterated amateurism.
It’s not about whether athletes deserve to be paid. (I don’t think they do.) It’s about the fact that the system is simply unsustainable from the standpoint of basic human behavior. And I’m not sure how you adjust the system to make it sustainable without completely throwing out the notion of the amateur student-athlete.
OK, I really need to stay focused on statistical analysis before I swear off college sports altogether. We’ll look at Marquise Gray’s numbers later this week.
Filed in links, michigan state basketball4 responses so far
4 Responses to “Tuesday Night Links, AKA “Recruiting talk returns like a bad rash””
DMPon 22 May 2008 at 9:34 am 1On a quick note, does anyone know what to make of Jamil Wilson being #33 prospect in Rivals and #6 prospect in Scout? Seems like a not so great sign. Isn’t there usually some consensus about who is in that top 10-15 group?
Ok, now on a longer note:
I don’t know, DeCourcy’s rant seems to not bring up anything new, really. Most everyone is aware of the issues regarding the treatment of young hoops talent. I don’t think the entire system is corrupt, because there is much that is also left to choice. A Tom Izzo or Bo Ryan can choose to abide by the rules and not go after kids who bring too many questions marks with them, or a Kelvin Sampson can choose to freely disregard what he considers to be minor rules and make all the calls he wants, or a Tim Floyd can do his gray-area cost-benefit math and take a kid who sought his program out because he thought it would provide for the best marketing going into the pros. There were more than many red flags with Mayo, and Floyd made his choice.
As his rant pointed out, Mayo’s (and other “elite” players) shady associations started well before getting to college, in the murky region of AAU/school-hopping/private academies/free shoe samples world of “elite” preps hoops. Yet no one ever seems to want to address that there is seriously lacking clearness of rules and enforcement resources at the preps level, and that’s where the NCCA could lend a big hand.
Keeping “elite” prospects from eligibility is ludicrous, since “elite” designations are subjective and are no guarantee of financial fortunes. Marcus Taylor and Shannon Brown were both elite preps prospects, but where would these guys have ended up if they had to declare for the NBA draft out of high school? An easy conclusion with regards to Taylor, but how would have Brown fared if he had not had a chance to develop physically and mentally (yes, being in school helps here too), and was relegated to a non-guaranteed contract of a second round selection? Perhaps making good money in Europe, and perhaps not. (By the way, how long until one of the “elite” players, their parents, and/or handlers decide to bypass the end of HS and college process, sign up with a Euroleague team and develop there while making money? Seems like this should have happened already.)
The system is definitely inequitable – to say the least. This is not new. Tom Izzo makes 2mil a year and has almost 10mil compensation annuity fund. On the other hand, some of his former players don’t have jobs right now. On the other hand, where would those players have ended up without basketball and without someone like Izzo who cares? On the other hand, how do we fully accept that the basketball coach is the highest paid public employee by a lot. On the other hand, where is the school’s donations and other athletic department programs without his influence? On the other hand, why do any of those things matter?
I don’t know those answers and Vishnu has run out of hands. I do know that, whatever the case, the disingenuous marketing and propaganda from the sports apparel companies selling dreams of fame, fortune, and grandeur to kids is right there at the base of the evil here. Their influence in the preps camps and AAU circuit is tremendous, and they know they are taking advantage of less sophisticated rules and enforcement at that level.
huberton 22 May 2008 at 11:52 am 2A comment on recruiting and the Big Ten. I think some of the current weakness is cyclical. These things go in cycles and in a dew years the Pac Ten will have less talent and more big time recruits will come to the B-10. Some of it is related to coaches — there has been a massive shift in the coaching ranks in the league, and there is an inevitable rebulding phase. Finally, there is no doubt that the weather and winter gloominess in the upper midwest hurts the league compared to schools in the south and west. That has always been there and won’t change, at least until global warming really kicks in.
My theory, though, is that a final factor has really kicked in since the scandals at Illinois and Michigan roughly ten years ago. and that is that big revenue sports have been cleaned up and reigned in by university administrations in the B-10 in a way that is not true in all leagues. Big ten presidents will simply not tolerate “outlaw” programs, and keep the booster nonsense to a minimum. People who run shady programs are unlikley to last more than a couple years, as witnessed most recently by Sampson. I would argue — albeit with no hard evidence — that Florida, Memphis, Cincinnati/West Virginia, and other places that regularly beat out big ten schools for top recruits simply operate with fewer institutional constraints. For instance, they can go after the the really deficient kids academically. They are not as worried about dealing with agents. There are many schools where the president is less powerful than the AD, and boosters can get an AD fired. In thsoe schools, winning trumps all other considerations. The Big Ten is not exactly the Ivy league in terms of purity, but there are standards and there is institutional control.
I believe the difference between the top academic state isntitutions (mostly in the Big Ten, Pac Ten, and the top of the ACC) and the others on this score has widened in the last decade, and will probably continue to increase. The emergence of the mid majors in recent years will only make it harder for big ten schools to compete. The solution would be for the Big Ten schools to promote reform within the NCAAS, but that seems to me highly unlikely to happen without some major crisis emerging.
And by the way, Big ten presidents can eat their cake too. Despite fewer national championships in football and basketball, they sell out their stadiums and get higher TV revenues than any other league.
kjon 22 May 2008 at 3:31 pm 3Yikes! Your comments are longer than my post!
Agree with DMP that calling the system “corrupt” isn’t quite accurate. More like “broken” or (as I said) “unsustainable.”
Also, a very interesting point on why no high school players have gone straight to Europe. That would seem to make some sense. Maybe European teams only want guys with proven US college/pro records to market to their fans?
And I agree with Hubert’s analysis of the current downturn in the Big Ten’s recruiting prospects.
DMPon 23 May 2008 at 9:33 am 4I know, I keep trying not to go long, but sometimes this board is like an AA meeting for me. “Hi, my name is DMP, and I a Spartaholic.”
That’s an interesting point on the downturn in the recruiting related to the high recent turnover on coaches, especially since many of previous coaches were (evidently) not very good. So recruit losses in the last 2-3 years probably reflects the crappiness of the coaches and their recruiting of these guys in the 2-4 years prior to that.