Unloading my minimal knowledge about recruiting
Posted by kj on Thursday, April 17th, 2008
You’ve probably noticed at this point that I don’t have much to say about recruiting. This results from some combination of (1) a personal outlook that tends to focus on the present and (2) a lack of patience to wade through all the message board chatter on recruiting. But with the late signing period starting yesterday, I thought I’d put up a post on the topic.
Happy Valley Hoops has a handy up-to-date list of Big Ten signings for the 2008 class, reflecting those signings that occurred yesterday and decommitments of previous signees (both occurring at Indiana). Warning: The number of stars on the recruiting sites for Ohio State’s incoming class can lead to temporary blindness.
Izzo had fulled all his open scholarship slots by signing Delvon Roe, Draymond Green, and Korie Lucious during the early signing period last fall. Here’s the official MSU bios on the three new guys:
Delvon Roe (F, 6-8, 220, Lakewood, Ohio/St. Edward High School) – 2007-08 Sporting News First-Team All-American … 2007 EA Sports National Junior of the Year … 2007 EA Sports All-America second team and Parade Magazine All-America fourth team … Averaged 22.5 points and 11.5 rebounds as a junior at St. Edward High School, leading his team to a 25-1 record, the Ohio Division 1 semifinals, a No. 23 final national ranking and a No. 5 Midwest Regional ranking by USA Today … Led St. Edwards in blocks (60) and steals (69) and was second in assists … Shot 40 percent from 3-point range as a junior … Runner-up for 2007 Ohio Mr. Basketball honors … Named 2007 Player of the Year in Ohio by the Cleveland Plain Dealer … All-Ohio Division I honoree … Participated in the 2007 USA Basketball Men’s Youth Development Festival, averaging 30.3 points (tournament best) and 10.3 rebounds … Ranked the No. 9 player overall in the nation by Scout.com, including the No. 2 power forward … Rated the No. 7 player in the ESPN 150, including the No. 2 power forward … Averaged 20.5 points, 10.7 rebounds, 3.2 assists and 2.2 steals as a sophomore … Named all-state honorable mention and all-district as a sophomore … Averaged 16.3 points, 9.6 rebounds and 3.2 blocks as a freshman, earning all-conference accolades … Plays AAU basketball for King James Shooting Stars … Plays for Coach Eric Flannery at St. Edward High School.
Draymond Green (F, 6-7, 230, Saginaw, Mich./Saginaw) - Averaged 25 points, 13 rebounds, three assists and three steals as a junior … Led Saginaw High School to the Michigan Class A State Championship and a 26-1 record … 2007 Detroit Free Press and The Detroit News Dream Team Member, the lone junior on the team … Shot 52 percent from the field and 73 percent from the foul line … First-team all-area and all-conference selection … Ranked the No. 98 player overall in the nation by Scout.com, including the No. 29 power forward … Rated the No. 77 player in the ESPN 150, including the No. 21 power forward … Averaged 12 points and 11 rebounds as a sophomore … Plays AAU basketball for the The Family, having previously played for the Michigan Mustangs … Plays for Coach Lou Dawkins at Saginaw High School.
Korie Lucious (G, 5-10, 165, Milwaukee, Wis./St. Pius XI High School) – Averaged 24.2 points, 5.4 assists, 4.3 steals and 2.6 rebounds as a junior at St. Pius XI High School, leading his team to a 19-4 record … Shot 48.3 percent from two-point range, 42.3 percent from 3-point range and 82.5 percent from the foul line … Named the 2007 Classic Eight Conference Player of the Year … First-team all-area selection … Participated in the 2007 USA Basketball Men’s Youth Development Festival, averaging 18.2 points, 4.0 rebounds and 3.4 assists … Ranked the No. 90 player overall in the nation by Scout.com, including the No. 11 point guard … Rated the No. 85 player in the ESPN 150, including the No. 9 point guard … Attended Rufus King High School as a sophomore, averaging 12.1 points, 6.5 assists and 2.3 steals … Plays AAU basketball for DTA Wisconsin … Plays for Coach Joel Classen at St. Pius XI High School.
Roe, of course, comes in with the highest profile and has the best shot at playing regularly as a freshman. Suton will play his 25-30 minutes at the 4/5 slots, but beyond that things are pretty wide open. Morgan may slide over to play some minutes at the 4 spot, as he did this past season, but I’d expect those minutes to go down with Neitzel’s 30-35 minutes to replace among the perimeter guys. Gray’s ability to contribute for more than 10-15 minutes/game is questionable at this point. And Ibok and Herzog are unlikely to contribute enough on offense to merit substantial minutes on a consistent basis.
I only saw Roe play once on TV–the game in which he hurt his knee. From what I saw, he could be the ideal Izzo big man–less of a traditional low-post scoring threat, but more of an all-around big guy who can rebound, defend, and handle the ball. And apparently he really wants to win, which is something Izzo tends to like in his players (to put it mildly). All indications are that his knee will be fully recovered by November, but missing live basketball for nearly all of his senior season could be a factor in how quickly he adapts to the college game.
Lucious’ minutes are likely to be limited as a freshman with Lucas and Walton ahead of him. With Walton’s graduation in 2009, Lucious will become the primary back-up to Lucas for the next two seasons (assuming Lucas doesn’t go pro early).
Green’s minutes are a wildcard going in the next season. They may hinge on whether Gray can get himself back into Izzo’s good graces and become a consistent contributor as a 20+ minute player.
Looking forward to the 2009-10 season, four scholarships will be available, with Suton, Walton, Gray, and Ibok leaving the program after next season. 6′10″ Garrick Sherman from Kenton, Ohio is the only 2009 recruit to verbally commit at this point.
Izzo could hold one of those slots for the 2010 class, when only two slots will open up due to departing seniors (Morgan, Dahlman). And if Dahlman were to redshirt this next season (ala David Thomas), that would leave only one opening in 2010.
I’d think Izzo’d be looking for at least one wing player, if not two of them, for the 2009 class, since there are none in the current class. Jamil Wilson appears to be the best case scenario. Scholarship players currently expected to be in the program going into the 2009-10 season:
- Point guards (2): Lucas (junior), Lucious (sophomore)
- Wings (4): Morgan (senior), Dahlman (senior/rs junior), Allen (junior), Summers (junior) [plus walk-on rs sophomore Auston Thornton, who could contribute at some point]
- Big men (4): Herzog (rs junior), Roe (sophomore), Green (sophomore), Sherman (freshman)
There you go: Everything I know about the Spartan basketball recruiting outlook at this point. Those of you who follow this stuff more closely than I do should feel free to supplement/correct/dismiss my observations.
Filed in roster analysis6 responses so far
6 Responses to “Unloading my minimal knowledge about recruiting”
huberton 18 Apr 2008 at 9:16 am 1I agree with you that worrying about the recruiting is quickly overdone. Clearly, Izzo had some bad recruiting years in the early 2000s, both in the numbers and in the evaluation of talent (best example is Gray). Just as clearly, the recruiting services are pretty inexact, and Izzo has been at his best when he recruits players like Peterson or Hutson, who were largely under the radar screen. Still, you need the horses, and the idea that some coaches win without great recruiting is largely nonsense. Give Northwestern the players that Bo Ryan has had at Wisconsin, and I believe Carmody would be competing for the Big ten title.
What I do like about this class and this year’s freshmen class is the balance that Izzo has restored to the program. As you point out, there is depth at every position, and depth at every class, unlike for a while these last couple years, in which key positions were really bare (ie guards), or in which certain classes were missing, which I think hurts the socialization of the players and the continuity of the program.
It is really hard to predict which players of the last two classes will turn into top contributor; but it is hard to believe that more than 1 or 2 of these 7 players will turn into total busts. are these classes that could lead to a final four? For my part, I am not willing to say yet; on the other hand, top twenty teams that make it to the sweet sixteen seem assured for the next three years, and that is good news indeed.
witless chumon 21 Apr 2008 at 11:03 am 2Are you sure about the knock on the Zog? He looks like he’s got some shooting touch. If he can just get some strength with the ball and in general, he’ll be more effective.
Inside defense is the area I really worry about next year. Neither Suton nor Gray ever have looked as effective as Naymick and Ibok is too much of a hack.
kjon 21 Apr 2008 at 2:27 pm 3I agree with you on Herzog’s potential. I’m just not sure that, after two years on campus, he’s going to suddenly gain the needed strength by this November.
And I’m not sure that a shot-blocking, nonathletic big man will ever really see major minutes in Izzo’s system. He values defensive versatility and the ability to run the floor. (This of course brings into question why both Ibok and Herzog were brought into the program.)
DMPon 21 Apr 2008 at 5:14 pm 4Yeah, every time you talk too much about recruiting you suddenly find yourself a little dirty. I mean, really we’re talking about 15-18 year olds, we’re (in larger proportion) grown men, the whole thing feels weird. It takes away focus of why it’s fun to root for our particular basketball team: it’s the sport we like, we are by and large proud of all the people involved, thus we are happy for this representation of the school, and it’s nice to see them on TV and recycle some nice memories of MSU dayz.
This is why I was hoping you’d be the one muddying yourself in the cesspool of recruiting boards and ratings sites instead of me! I do like to look through the ranking sites to try to make sense of some things (ex: UNC and UCLA get all 5 stars always? why does Louisville keep getting them and doing nothing with them? and Syracuse? and how the hell did it happen that Ohio became a preps hoops all-star breeding ground?), even though I know very little about any one player.
I find the last two classes intriguing because of their make-up. Taller 2-guards and a couple of crazy ball-handling 1’s. They haven’t had a natural 1 ball-handling assist machine since Mateen left town. Or the classes were mismatched as pointed out above. Neitzel was too young in the ‘05 final four run, whereas the 2-guard (Hill) was primed. And so on. Now there is an emerging core of 1’s and 2’s who appear to be talented, naturals, “junkies” as Izzo put it, and they’re coming up within 1 year of each other.
The other intriguing thing is that in this entire run Izzo has never had one of those super-athletic, run the floor-type star 3/4 skilled combo forward. Roe could be the first of his kind, if he’s healthy enough and if indeed he is all that. I’m surprised to find out he shot 40% 3’s in HS. This is good. I’ve been convinced that MSU’s troubles for the last 2 years were compounded by the lack natural ball-handlers and no taller perimeter shooters. Suddenly we’re looking at 6′4″ and 6′5″ Allen and Summers and maybe still Dahlman, 6′7″ Morgan if he comes along, and perhaps 6′8″ Roe. Of course the last two should do the bulk of their work around the basket and filling fastbreak lanes. But versatility people, versatility. No offense to Lucas and Lucious, who seem like two absolutely fearless dudes.
I don’t see how Ibok and Herzog can contribute much either. Not sure how Ibok, like Gray, suddenly is supposed to understand basketball and pick up minimal offensive skills after 3 years of not getting it. And I’m not sure how Herzog puts on 40 pounds this summer after putting on 13 oz. in two years. He can have all the touch in the world, but he’s not getting a shot off if he can’t move quickly and/or without some weight on his frame.
I’d have to disagree that Izzo is not so into big men as traditional low post scoring threats, as that was all he hoped for Paul Davis. He would have been happier if Erazem Lorbek and Randolph had stayed in school. He always though Hutson could have been more of an interior scoring presence. I think it’s been more of an issue of availability of talent in the 6′9″ and above group in his usual recruiting area. For instance, how many offensively talented big men has Michigan produced at all? Not Smith, not Anagonye, not Gray. I don’t know why Izzo’s recruiting team hasn’t been very successful outside MI/OH/IL/IN, but maybe someone else has some insight on that.
kjon 22 Apr 2008 at 11:19 am 5DMP,
Agree that the “feeling dirty” factor is substantial when you start delving into the world of recruiting. Of course, a bunch of 30+ year old men (speaking for myself, at least) becoming emotionally invested in the athletic performance of 18-22 year olds is creepy enough, when you step back and think about it.
Not sure about the recruiting-outside-the-Midwest question. One possible explanation: Izzo hasn’t tried to become a national recruiter like UNC/Duke/Kansas/etc. I haven’t followed recruiting closely enough to know if this is true or not, but I do remember Izzo specifically talking about the outline of the state of Michigan on the Breslin floor when they brought it in after the 2000 championship. He seemed to be contrasting the program with Michigan, which tended to recruit more outside the state in their glory days.
I don’t know if it’s the right strategic decision, but personally I think it’s more fun to root for local players. And there are only a few top-tier programs that can pull the national-recruiting thing off consistently.
DMPon 23 Apr 2008 at 9:47 am 6You know, taking your pride in being a team of and from the state of Michigan representing Michigan State University is quite a decent point. I guess I wouldn’t have even thought of the issue if it didn’t seem like the Michigan pool of preps player quality seemed to drop for a couple of years there. That seems to be turning around.
I guess the other thing is every once in a while I see a player on TV and think “man, that guy would be so much better if he played for Izzo. Why wouldn’t a guy like have wanted to play for Izzo???”
I always try to forget how unreliable I was when I was 18 when I’m watching college hoops (and demanding only the best out of the 18-year olds I’m watching).