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Rankings Update

Michigan State comes in at #19 in both poll this week–dropping two spots in the AP poll and just one spot in the coaches’ poll. As bad as the Ohio State loss was in terms of how the game played out, it really wasn’t a bad loss from a binary standpoint–road loss vs. a bubble team. To put it in more painful terms: It’s a bad loss for a top-10 team (which most of us still hope MSU can be). It’s not a bad loss for a team ranked between 15 and 20.

Joe Lunardi still has MSU as a #5 seed. Most bracketologists have us as either a #5 or #6 seed. In terms of the other Big Ten teams:

• Wisconsin’s a consensus #3 seed. (Lunardi puts them in the Detroit regional.)
• Purdue’s a #4 seed in most people’s books.
• Opinions diverge on IU–placing them between a #4 and a #6. Probably depends how much you factor in their decline since Sampson departed.
• Most people have Ohio State in the field–but barely. The majority of prognosticators put them at a #12 seed, indicating they’re one of the last few teams in. My sense is the game on Friday is a do-or-die game for the Buckeyes. Win and they’re in the Big Dance; lose and they’re out.

For MSU, my guess is a loss on Friday would make them a #6 or #7 seed. One win followed by a loss would make them a #5 seed. Two wins to get to the conference tournament final would make them a #4 seed.

Update: Forgot to do the formula rankings:

• Sagarin ratings peg us at #19 (down from #17).
• Kenpom ratings say #16 (same as last week).
• The RPI figures at StatSheet.com place MSU at #15 (same as last week).

Monday Night Links

Hoopraker applauds D.J. White’s senior season and career and pays tribute to the other departing Big Ten seniors. On Neitzel and Naymick:

Drew Neitzel: Academic All-American 2008, Spartan heart and soul for four stellar years, Final Four bookends?

Drew Naymick: another well-taught Izzo big man, opportunistic scorer from 15 feet in

USA Today says Neitzel is one of the five seniors they hate to see leaving college basketball.

TAFKATBTW posts his final check of conference-only tempo-free numbers across the nation. He nominates Bo Ryan for national coach of the decade. MSU finishes the conference season:

• 7th in possessions for game (63.1)
• 3rd in points per possession (1.06)
• 4th in opponents’ points per possession (0.97)
• 3rd in efficiency margin (+0.09)

Numbers aren’t bad, but they don’t reflect MSU’s inconsistency. If we could just transfer some of those points from the IU win to the Iowa and Penn State losses . . .

The Hoosier Report has a nice historical run-down on the 10-year history of the Big Ten Tournament. Like him, I’m fairly fond of the tournament at this point. I’ve gone three times in Chicago and will be going for the first time in Indy this year. It’s a great event in terms of bring fans from across the conference together. I would concede, however, that the basketball can be somewhat unattractive–with defensive-oriented teams generally meeting for the third time in a season.

The Hoosier Report notes that if both Purdue and IU win their first games, an Indiana team is guaranteed to play in the final, nearly guaranteeing a full house at Conseco. (Note that The Hoosier Report has adopted the Spartans Weblog’s “TAFKATBTW” moniker for Mr. John Gasaway.)

MGoBlog cites reports that a BTN-Comcast deal may be close. Next season, maybe this blogger will actually, you know, watch all of MSU’s games before spouting his half-baked theories about the team.

Update: Ironically, I linked to the MGoBlog post above but didn’t read all the way to the bottom of the post to see that Brian offered up a recommendation for his readers to check out my little old blog. I’ll take all the help I can get–even if it’s from Maize and Blue territory.

All-Conference Picks

Here are my picks for the all-Big Ten teams. I’m going to focus on performance in conference games only for three reasons:

• It evens the statistical playing field.
• Most of the games involving non-MSU Big Ten teams I’ve seen this season have been in conference play.
• It will serve as a natural buffer against any Spartan homer picks I might be tempted to make.

For each player, I’ve listed points per game plus one or two other key stats with conference ranks (conference-only numbers). FG% and FT% numbers and ranks are based on official Big Ten numbers. The other stats/ranks are from StatSheet.com.

Past Gordon, White, and Butler, you can make an argument for a lot of players in any of the remaining slots.

First Team

• Jamar Butler (OSU): 15.3 PPG, 6.2 Assists/G (1), 94.3 FT% (2)
• Eric Gordon (IU): 20.8 PPG, 66.6% FT rate (2), 1.20 PPWS (?)
• E’Twaun Moore (PUR): 14.4 PPG, 42.0 3pt% (7). 2.3 Assist/TO ratio (4)
• Robbie Hummel (PUR): 13.0 PPG, 47.6 3pt% (1), 10.1 OReb% (6)
• D.J. White (IU): 17.8 PPG, 23.8 DReb% (2), 59.3 FG% (4)

Fudged Hummel as the second big man; I don’t think there’s another deserving pure post player and Hummel can rebound the ball. I wouldn’t be surprised if Neitzel gets the 5th slot on the media and/or coaches’ first teams as a form of respect for his career.

Second Team

• Drew Neitzel (MSU): 12.6 PPG, 2.7 Assist/TO ratio (2),
• Michael Flowers (WIS): 9.9 PPG, 44.1% 3pt% (4)
• Manny Harris (MICH): 16.9 PPG, 82.7% FT% (7)
• Goran Suton (MSU): 8.5 PPG, 24.5 DReb% (1)
• Kosta Koufos (OSU): 12.4 PPG, 12.9 OReb% (1)

Flowers is here for his defense (still painful to think about what he did to Neitzel). Harris wasn’t efficient (45.6 effective FG%), but gets a pass for being the only reliable scoring option on his team. Suton scored less than Pruitt or Butch, but averaged a full 2 rebounds more per game.

Third Team

• Chris Kramer (PUR): 6.5 PPG, 5.0% Steal% (1)
• Raymar Morgan (MSU): 13.2 PPG, 56.8% FG% (5)
• Jamelle Cornley (PSU): 13.1 PG, 18.8% DReb% (5)
• Shaun Pruitt (ILL): 12.1 PPG, 63.9% FG% (2)
• Brain Butch (WIS): 12.1 PPG, 6.1 Reb/G (6)

Pretty weak crop of point guard in terms of statistical production this year; went with Kramer for defense. Morgan will have to play shooting guard on this team. Cornley did it all for a Penn State team that showed surprising life after the loss of Claxton to injury. Could put Coble or Moore here, but hard to hand out any kind of all-conference honors on a team that went 1-17.

Honorable Mention: Kevin Coble (NW), Tony Freeman (IOWA), Craig Moore (NW), Lawrence McKenzie (MIN), Marcus Landry (WIS), Trevon Hughes (WIS), Cyrus Tate (IOWA), Keaton Grant (PUR)

You can make a pretty good argument I’ve paid Wisconsin short shrift here–one 2nd team pick and one 3rd team pick for a team that went 16-2 in conference. Perversely, though, I think it’s actually a tribute. The Badgers were the ultimate team, in the true sense of the word, this season. You couldn’t put a finger on which player exactly was the key to their success.

White, Gordon, and Painter should be shoe-ins for player of the year, freshman of the year, and coach of the year.

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