Rankings Update and Introducing . . . Coffee Talk
Posted by kj on Monday, February 25th, 2008
Rankings Update
In the AP poll, Michigan State held steady at #19 following the two home wins this week. Notre Dame and Vanderbilt leapfrogged us. The three teams are bunched within 5 voting points, though, so no major injustice has been perpetrated against us.
In the coaches’ poll, meanwhile, MSU moved up two spots from #17 to #15. They moved past UConn and Purdue, both of whom lost this week.
Despite our Spartans’ also-ran status in the conference standings, it’s worth noting our strong nonconference performance (related: BYU is back in the coaches’ top 25) keeps us within striking distance of being the top-ranked Big Ten team going into the NCAA tournament.
Wisconsin is currently #10/9. Indiana is #12/12. Purdue is #16/19.
A win in the unfriendly confines of the Kohl Center Thursday night would be a necessary step toward making that fantasy a reality.
The formula-driven rankings:
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Sagarin ratings have us at #17 (rankings weren’t up-to-date last Monday).
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Kenpom ratings say #18 (up from #25 last week).
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Basketball State ratings ($) still REALLY like MSU, placing them at # 10 (same as last week)
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The RPI figures at StatSheet.com place MSU at #15 (down from #14).
So the views of both the stat guys and the more intuitive folk have converged to put MSU somewhere between #15 and #19 in the country (throwing out the BB State outlier). Consistent with that convergence, the NCAA bracket projectors are currently slotting MSU as a #5 seed: Joe Lunardi, Stewart Mandel, and Crashing the Dance. Crashing the Dance is a newly-discovered site that attempts “to predict the behavior of the NCAA Men’s Basketball Committee using artificial intelligence techniques.” Wicked awesome.
Coffee Talk
In light of the big game in Madison Thursday night, I’m moving Reader Feedback Thursday up in the week and–drumroll, please–giving it a catchy, new, non-day-of-the-week-specific name: “Coffee Talk“. Let’s try not to get too verklempt, though.
Dave Dye’s column today confirms my speculation of yesterday that MSU may be gearing up specifically for a run at the Big Ten Tournament championship this year:
“Our goal is to win out,” Neitzel said. “I think that’s a very attainable goal. We’re looking at the Big Ten tournament. That’s the way we can get our ring, get our banner that way.”
So here’s the Coffee Talk discussion question for the week: With four games remaining in the regular season, what does Michigan State need to do for you to consider this season a success?
I see three potential shots at redemption:
- Winning out in the regular season. That would put us at 14-4 in the conference and 26-5 overall. Neither record would be anything to sneeze at.
- Winning the Big Ten Tournament championship. It would be our first conference tournament crown in eight years.
- Making a deep run in the NCAA Tournament. A trip to the Final Four would be great, of course, but a visit to the Elite Eight would help perpetuate MSU’s status as a national contender.
If MSU accomplishes one of these three things, I think you have to consider the season at least a wash. If they accomplish two of them, the season would be a clear success.
Agree? Disagree? Give a call, we’ll talk, no big whoop.
Filed in coffee talk, michigan state basketball
GBBoundon 25 Feb 2008 at 8:16 pm 1KJ-
An excellent compendium of where MSU fares in the brackets can be found at:
http://bracketproject.atspace.com/comparison.htm
Right now, they have 45 different sites listed with brackets. As always, some are better than others.
As far as coffee talk goes, if MSU wins the Big Ten Tourney, then they would have to advance to the Sweet 16 at a minimum for it to be a success. Absent a BTT title, then, at minimum, MSU would have to advance to an Elite 8 game.
kjon 25 Feb 2008 at 8:27 pm 2Nice link. 19 of the 23 projections current as of today have MSU as a #5 seed.
mblemieuxon 26 Feb 2008 at 2:21 am 3Of your three potential shots at redemption, it’s clear to me that a deep run in the tourney (Elite Eight at least) would wash away the distaste of not winning the Big Ten. History proves that it would even overcome the disappointment of not winning the conference tourney. Thus, winning out and even winning the Big Ten tourney would be great, but a deep run in the NCAA tourney is the real measure of success/redemption.
huberton 26 Feb 2008 at 9:03 am 4Yes, a deep run in March is what people remember five years later. So, even if MSU won the big ten tourney, but then lost in the first round of the NCAAs, we would all be bummed.
On the other hand, winning some hardware is also good, and more than about time. For the long run, it is important that this team learn to win on the road, so wins at Wisconsin, OSU and Illinois are likely to pay dividends next year. Plus, let’s not forget that ending the regular season well could bump MSU up to a 3 seed, even perhaps as high as a 2, which would make a deep run that much easier.
All in all an interesting end of the season.
Spartalyticalon 26 Feb 2008 at 10:42 am 5Winning out would be great, but the only game that would really jump out to anyone would be Thursday night in Madison. The last three are certainly no gimmes (in fact, it’s unfortunately not too much of a stretch to imagine our boys going 0-4 over these remaining two weeks), but only Wisconsin would stand out to me as “woah, that shouldn’t have happened.” I’m more optimistic that this, however.
A good performance in the conference tournament is needed as well. We’ve had mediocre performances, at best, over the last several years. A good run to the finish would be a good boost for this team and good rapid-repeat-fire preparation for the real tournament a week later.
But a meaningful presence in the NCAAs would stand out the most, and redeem this season’s transgressions most effectively. I’m encouraged by what we’ve seen over the last two games in the form of better scoring, unselfish play, and smarter decisions, but my feet are still the ground since these observations were against Penn State and Iowa. I’m also encouraged by Izzo’s demeanor as of late. All season he’s warned against how the Spartans weren’t as good as their one- and two-loss record showed, as well as their national rankings. We were winning games, sure, but you could just tell it was a matter of time before things would begin falling apart unless changes were made. And it happened, just like he said it would. Now, despite not having fully proved themselves against a tough opponent this conference season, Coach Izzo is talking in terms of making a run and doing some tournament damage. We know him well enough that he must believe it, as he’s not one to build up false hope (on the contrary, he’s typically further in the opposite direction).
I’ll be interested to see how we come out in Madison. Most venues in the B10 are tough places to play, but Kohl is particularly rough. Will our guys handle it? Will they come out like they did against Indiana, but maintain the intensity and effort this time? Will they play an entire game like the second half against the Boilers a couple of weeks ago? Or will that familiar mental block return after an early mistake or two against a hard-nosed opponent in their own gym?
It should be a good game.
Spartalyticalon 26 Feb 2008 at 10:43 am 6Crap, I forgot to throw in a line about MSU playing “like butta.”
kjon 26 Feb 2008 at 10:56 am 7That’s one of the beauties of Izzo. When the team is playing well, he talks them down. When they’re playing poorly, he talks them up. Keeps them on an even keel–and shows loyalty to his players.
As for being “like butta,” only Barbara meets that standard . . .
TMadison25on 26 Feb 2008 at 11:15 am 8Realistically, I think we have the best shot of the three at winning the Big Ten Tournament. Izzo will start the team at the B10 tournament as an extension of the NCAA Tournament, considering the variation of seeds we could get for the big dance (#2 thru #8?) with our remaining schedule. The committee’s focus on the last 10 games could create a depressing drop if we don’t handle business. Next is a good run in the NCAA Tournament. I would prefer this to be the main focus, as it seems to be Izzo’s bread-and-butter. Non-conference, neutral court games we have done well with. I cringe at the remaining schedule, and that’s why a strong finish in the regular season seems the biggest reach. At Champaign has been absolutely ugly in recent years… I think even worse than our losses at Wisconsin. The injuries and recent losses to Illinois may give us more hope, but I still worry a lot. Then other games are at OSU with a tournament resume on the line, the aforementioned Wisconsin and Illinois road games and Indiana at home.
Can we be content with a split of those four games? Between early season’s expectations, our road woes, and recent strides toward reducing turnovers… I don’t know what I would be content with.
huberton 26 Feb 2008 at 11:42 am 9I think anything less than three wins for the last four games is a “moral defeat”. The team should be undefeated at home, so should chalk up a win against Indiana, and then really should win at both Illinois and OSU, neither of which will still be in the hunt for the NCAAs by the time MSU plays them.
kjon 26 Feb 2008 at 12:29 pm 10With Illinois beaten down by injuries and Ohio State dealing with team chemistry problems, losses in one or both of those games would be major disappointments and confirm that MSU simply can’t play well on the road. Those games shouldn’t be as difficult as they looked when the conference season began.