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A statistical look at Michigan State basketball, with a dash of football talk


Purdue Game Recap (2/12/08)

Posted by kj on Tuesday, February 12th, 2008

The last 11 seconds–when the game was effectively out of reach–sum this game up: Purdue misses the front end of a one-on-one to keep the lead at 6. Neitzel grabs the rebound and heads up court. Rather than allowing Neitzel to take a 3-pointer–which would have no doubt been a low-percentage shot, but would have at least given MSU a slim shot at a miracle comeback–Izzo calls a timeout to set up a play. MSU inbounds the ball, attempts a dribble hand-off and–surprise, surprise–Purdue strips the ball.

Even if the play Izzo called had worked, it would have taken up too much time for MSU to possibly have gotten the ball back. And like nearly every other set play MSU tried to run tonight, Purdue’s aggressive perimeter defense stymied it.

This play obviously didn’t cost the MSU the game; the game was effectively over. But it’s symptomatic of what did: insistence on trying to run a scripted offense against a team determined to disrupt that offense, rather than letting players make unscripted plays when the situation calls for it

On to the recap: Purdue takes down MSU 60-54. Purdue climbed out to a 34-16 34-18 lead at halftime. MSU turned it over an astounding 14 times in the first half as Purdue’s swarming defense on the perimeter created turnover after turnover. Without Kalin Lucas’ improvised penetration, MSU might not have gotten to double digits by halftime.

MSU showed some moxie in the second half, locking down Purdue on defense and scoring a series of scrappy buckets inside when their perimeter shooting continued to be nonexistent. They climbed to within one point with 3 minutes left, but Purdue came up with one more Hummel-led scoring run to put it away for good.

So much for Robbie Hummel being a “quasi-star.” The freshman made his national debut as a full-fledged star tonight, causing Musberger and Lavin to compare him to a certain former U.S. Senator from the great state of New Jersey. He finished with 24 points on 9-15 shooting and 11 rebounds. And that stat line doesn’t do his performance justice; his hustle and headiness were difference makers throughout the game.

The thing that frustrates me about this game–as I’ve begun to divulge above–is how ill-prepared MSU came out for this game offensively. They knew the Purdue crowd would be rocking. They knew the Purdue players would be pumped up and playing aggressively on defense. But MSU came out and ran their offense like they were playing a nonconference also-ran. They tried to move the ball around the perimeter with hand-offs and simple passes to set up their offense.

Purdue would have nothing of it. They hounded MSU for 20 solid minutes. MSU either turned the ball over in a variety of creative ways (more on that coming from GBBound in the comment section) or wasted so much time trying to pass the ball, that they ran out of shot clock. The latter scenario occurred on the very first two possessions of the game.  On several occasions, Purdue stripped the ball when MSU telegraphed their intent to execute a dribble hand-off–a staple of the MSU attack that Purdue had obviously noticed on film.

The only offense they got was when Lucas entered the game and used his quickness to beat the pressure and create shots for himself. He finished the game with 20 of MSU’s 54 points. shooting 7-10 from the field.

Going forward, Izzo simply has to give Lucas more freedom on offense. He’ll make some mistakes; there’s no doubt about it. But trying to run their standard offense against good defenses is consistently resulting in large amounts of turnovers.

As a corollary, it’s time to replace Walton with Lucas in the starting lineup again. I love Walton. He’s a tough, gutsy player, and he’s going to be a tremendous asset on defense until his final game as a Spartan next season. But he brings absolutely nothing on offense. Early in the game, he’d dribble past pressure, only to pull the ball back out again because he can’t create going to the hoop. Lucas needs to be in the game at the outset to establish MSU’s ability to beat pressure and force opponents to give them some breathing room.

OK. See how I said I was going to start with the game recap, but then fell right back into rant mode? On to the box score. To add to my angst this evening, there’s an inordinate delay in posting the official box score, so I’m linking to the ESPN box score. (Unofficial boxscores don’t break out offensive/defensive team rebounds.)

  • MSU finished with 17 19 turnovers in about 66 possessions (25.8% 28.8%). Purdue had only 11 turnovers (16.7%).
  • MSU didn’t make up for the turnover deficit on the boards, pulling down only 4 6 individual offensive rebounds in 28 opportunities (21.4%).
  • 0-5 3-point shooting for MSU. Horrific game for Neitzel, who missed 4 of the 5 3-point attempts. All of them were tough looks.
  • I don’t recall that MSU made a shot from further out than about 12 feet (Lucas floaters, Naymick set shot). Reminiscent of the Illinois game.
  • This game was close enough for MSU to make a run only because Purdue cooled off from beyond the arc in the second half. They finished 7-24 (29.2%). As the announcers indicated, this may have been due to fatigued legs. They cooled off in the second half against Wisconsin, too. This is something for Painter to address for Purdue to keep their run through the conference going: finding other ways to score when the 3-pointes aren’t dropping.
  • Morgan finished with a decent stat line: 12 points on 5-9 shooting and 7 rebounds. But he looked like a shell of his former self whenever they showed him on the bench. He was only able to use his size and athleticism to create shots near the basket for a short stretch in the second half. He’s clearly lost his moxie.
  • How did Naymick only get credited with one blocked shot? Seems like he easily had 3-4. Tremendous hustle play by the Big Red Head during the second half run, when he sprinted to bat a ball away from the sideline that seemed destined to roll out of bounds.
  • Izzo went with the small lineup less than I thought he would. There were two bigs (Suton/Naymick/Gray) in the game for 25 of the 40 minutes. It pretty clearly backfired. I thought the bigs played decent perimeter defense most of the game, but Hummel did take advantage of mismatches against bigger players on several opportunities. And there was no payoff in terms on offense, as evidenced by the small number of offensive rebounds and Suton’s limited touches in the post.

This loss knocks MSU out of the conference race for good. It’s time to set our sites on the Big Ten and NCAA tournaments. The jig is up as far as MSU’s offense goes. Opponents know if they can force MSU out a rhythm, the team can’t adjust. That has to change, or it’s going to be a rough end to the conference season. And the teams we play in the NCAA Tournament will certainly have seen this game film.

With both our games against the Boilermakers in the books, I’ll be rooting for Purdue to win the conference. They’re a great story–and a great team, one that will only get better over the next two years. When Izzo shook Painter’s hand after the game, you could see he stepped away from MSU’s struggles for just a moment. He had a look of genuine pride for what Painter’s done with this team as he congratulated him on the win. Perhaps Painter reminded Izzo of himself just 10 short years ago . . .

Update: I’ve corrected a few stats above based on the official box score.

Update 2: Joe Rexrode says, “Give the keys to Lucas.”

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No Responses to “Purdue Game Recap (2/12/08)”

  1. gbboundon 12 Feb 2008 at 10:50 pm 1

    Here is my feeble attempt at tracking turnovers for the MSU-Purdue game. My second half numbers are probably off, as the box score says 17.

    FIRST HALF TURNOVERS
    1. 24 second violation at 19:23 (0 second on shot clock)
    2. Suton handoff to Neitzel at 18:42 (17 seconds on shot clock)
    3. Shot clock violation at 18:00 (0)
    4. Walton pass at top of key at 17:17 (29)
    5. Morgan travel at 15:21 (28)
    6. Suton inbound pass at 13:25 (35)
    7. Lucas charge at 10:41 (30)
    8. Neitzel dribble off foot at 10:15 (22)
    9. Neitzel travel at 8:13 (23)
    10. Lucas defensive rebound out of bounds at 7:04(35)
    11. Hummel takes out of Neitzel’s hands at 6:31 (20)
    12. Naymick 5 second violation at 3:03 (21)
    13. Lucas pass out of bounds pass at 1:24 (20)
    14. Lucas charge at 47.4 (21)

    2nd HALF TURNOVERS
    15. Walton ball knocked out driving at 18:14 (31)
    16. Walton/Naymick stolen in backcourt at 17:41 (33)
    17. Walton held ball (MSU retains) at 17:05 (25)
    18. ?????? (Stupid ESPN showing highlights) at 12:50 (35)
    19. Walton pass out of bounds at 11:03 (23)
    20. Walton pass stolen at 7:22 (32)
    21. Morgan travel at 2:42 (19)
    22. Neitzel stripped with 7 seconds left (-)

    Those that are questionable turnovers (Not by the refs, but by more own recording standards) are numbers 10 and 17, so I wonder why I am 3 over. For those that so desire to watch the game again, you can tell me where I got it wrong.

    As we see, a significant majority of the turnovers occurred with more than 20 seconds remaining on the shot clock.

  2. Nateon 13 Feb 2008 at 12:12 am 2

    ugh, another painful one to watch, if we played like we did for the first 15 minutes of the second half, we would of won by 10.

    I’ve done a good job of staying off the Neitzel has issues bandwagon, but seriosuly, when Drew Naymick is more of a senior leader than you, something is up. Granted, Purdue (and other teams) have done a solid job of draping themselves on the guy most of the gaem, the problem is that when he has open looks, he clanks most his shots.

    This team WILL NOT WIN squat without Morgan and Neitzel playing to their potential and really, how they should play.

    Some drastic changes must be made fast, if we start slow like this against Eric Gordon and his boys, we’re dead meat.

  3. witless chumon 13 Feb 2008 at 8:01 am 3

    I was hoping for them to pound it inside in the first half and let Suton work on the blocks. He and Morgan seemed had advantages inside, but MSU didn’t capitalize. Although in the second half when this strategy started working, it didn’t lead to any open threes off kick outs. Purdue’s defense was disciplined in ways ours often wasn’t, especially as far as guys losing their man.

    Watching Hummel made me miss having the big guy who could shoot threes.

    That Naymick play was awesome. How did he beat everyone on the floor to that ball? Musberger (arggh) said something like “He’s on the scorers table!”

  4. kjon 13 Feb 2008 at 8:36 am 4

    Thanks for tracking the turnovers, gbbound. The number based on the official box score is 19–counting the 2 team turnovers for shot clock violations. So you’re only one over now.

  5. Boilerbreweron 13 Feb 2008 at 10:04 am 5

    gbbound wrote:

    17. Walton held ball (MSU retains) at 17:05 (25)

    I don’t believe it’s a turnover since you retained the ball. You lost the possession arrow, but not control of the ball.

  6. TMadison25on 13 Feb 2008 at 10:34 am 6

    I’m not ready to bash Neitzel and his inconsistent point totals, yet. I still think he is trying to find the best balance of team-first play and his own shot selection. However, I don’t recall him slashing with the ball much this season compared to previous years. He used to work the left/right-hand float shot to perfection. Now it seems as if Lucas (and only Lucas) has been the one capitalizing with that move. Is it because that when Neitzel gets the ball, he is immediately hounded, forcing him to give up the ball? Where in the past when he was hounded he would still try to make something work? Is it poor screens and picks not offering up enough good looks for him? Could this type of scoring spark him from behind the arc when he is in a shooting funk?

    Someone, please give me an answer. I can’t seem to shake the subject! All I want is the ambidextrous floaters to come back to the Spartan arsenal.

  7. kjon 13 Feb 2008 at 12:51 pm 7

    TMadison25,
    I think Neitzel has not been trying to create off the dribble and shoot the floater because he sees the other offensive options available this season and doesn’t want to manufacture shots outside the structure of the offense.

    Like Lucas, though, he needs to force the action when defenders are playing him tightly. It may lead to some lower-percentage shots–but that’s preferable to the no-purpose turnovers that continue to plague us.

    Hard to explain Neitzel’s outside shooting performance last night, though. For the first time, he seemed flustered, rather than just not having the right touch on his shots.

    P.S. “The Ambidextrous Floaters” would be an excellent name for a rock band.

  8. Spartalyticalon 13 Feb 2008 at 4:00 pm 8

    It is amazing how poorly this team has played in 11 conference games so far this year. Watching the first half last night, I think I finally had a mental meltdown that was a long time coming. I’ve read the commentaries and blogs in the Lansing and Detroit papers, a limited amount of what the national talking heads have to say about this team. I tend to find the comments here about the best, but there’s no shortage of frustration anywhere I’ve seen.

    I’ve come to believe our beloved blogger, kj, is right on the money when he points out the major pitfalls of Izzo’s offensive scheme. He is one of the most disciplined coaches in the game, and prides himself on imparting that discipline to his players as well as any effort-type facet of the game. Izzo runs so many sets that these guys have no blooming idea what to do when a good defense disrupts them. When the plays outsmart the defense, or when the defense maybe isn’t all that great (a rarity in the Big Ten), the shots come easy and the points stack up. But after 10 seconds of frustrating those sets, we see 15 seconds more of dribble-hand-offs between two or three guys and then a lousy forced shot or a turnover in trying to force something that’s truly not there. We’ve seen this to some degree in every conference game this year, with maybe the exceptions of Ohio State and at Northwestern.

    Neitzel doesn’t create his shot as well as others do – he’s a spot up shooter. Walton, with the exception of Northwestern last week, typically can’t hit the broad side of a barn (nor should he frequently try). Morgan and Lucas are the only two who can get creative and make something happen, but fouls and turnovers have a muting effect on them, respectively. It’s been rare when I’ve been critical of Izzo’s coaching decisions and techniques, but this one only seems to be growing more glaring with each game. Yes, they’re only freshman, but this year’s additions with essentially no losses from 2006-2007, this was supposed to have been a breakout year that returned this team to its regular elite status. But while it’s hard for 20-4 to look bad by many people’s standards, it appears as though we’re watching this Spartan train slowly wrecking before our eyes.

    As for last night, much credit goes to Purdue. Matt Painter has his squad playing well beyond their years and at a surprisingly high and consistent level. I love watching this team (except against us). Robbie Hummel and E’Twaun Moore are amazing players, and I anticipate/fear this isn’t a mere fluke in West Lafayette. Credit to our guys for finally resurrecting their heads back to where the sun shines and clawing their way back into the game, but this time it wasn’t enough. That late three-pointer was questionable, but it did not solely decide the game.

    In the end, all is not lost. We will finish with a better conference record than we have recently, and should have some degree of battle-testedness for the upcoming tournaments. This team has talent, has great coaches, and has the ability to turn things around on any given night against any given opponent. Of that, I’m convinced. All reasoning and theories aside, I just keep watching every game hoping to see it finally happen.

  9. matton 13 Feb 2008 at 4:35 pm 9

    frusterated! that’s about all i can say. what an ugly game. come to think of it, when the last time we’ve played a “pretty” game? it’s been a while that’s for sure. i love nietzel as much as anyone but dude you gotta step up! you’re the leader of the team and a preseason all-american. what the h has gone wrong with you? i’ve watched drew play since his freshman year of high school and he’s never looked this bad. we know he has the ability but it seems like his only chance to score 15 or more is if he get’s at least 12 pts. off 3’s. that’s not a good sign.

    but he can’t take all the blame. morgan needs to stop crying on the bench everytime something doesn’t go his way. c’mon man, you’re not a freshman anymore. he’s got the skill to create. i just wonder like kj pointed out if izzo’s offence just doesn’t allow players to make their own plays…except for lucas. i think he just says screw and goes to the hoop. and it’s a good thing he does or this would have been a 30 point blowout. seriously, how good has he been! who would have thought that our best player and the only one who seems to want the ball when we need a bucket is a true freshman that isn’t even 6 ft!

    a few more random thoughts…

    -i never thought i’d say this but why is suton getting more touches down low. good things seem to happen when he does.

    -also, can someone find marcus taylor and erazam lorbek’s dads to some how get in touch with travis walton. i’m thinking the two of them might be able to persuade him into thinking he’s a 1st round pick if he comes out. that’s the only way for me to not have to want to pull my hair out for another year watching him play. yes he’s a good defender but so is my neighbor. walton can’t shoot, can’t drive and doesn’t make good decision with the ball. he’s worthless

    -lastly, i have to admit summers and allen are starting to look a lot like maurice joseph…let’s hope that changes quickly.

  10. gbboundon 13 Feb 2008 at 5:49 pm 10

    Spartalytical,

    You make a lot of good points. The only thing I would comment on is the timing of the turnovers. I went into last night’s game thinking MSU’s turnovers occurred rather late into the shot clock (i.e., 15 seconds or less remaining). Given the glacial pace of Big Ten games, and the limited number of possessions per game, I would have thought MSU took a lot of time to develop its offense. I was very surprised to find that a significant majority of those turnovers happened very early in the shot clock (20 seconds or more remaining).

  11. TMadison25on 13 Feb 2008 at 6:12 pm 11

    I’ve sent a link to kj’s page to Tom Izzo via text message (me being the Spartan insider that I am). He said that changes are on there way and that the Spartans will be renewed and lookin sharp at the Indiana game.

    Go Green!

  12. donaldoon 13 Feb 2008 at 8:11 pm 12

    After all the analysis, perhaps the telling point is that the absence of Maurice Joseph has had a more profound effect than anyone could have imagined. :)