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A statistical look at Michigan State basketball, with a dash of football talk


Illinois Game Recap (1/30/08)

Posted by kj on Thursday, January 31st, 2008

MSU pulls it out, 51-41.  If I had to describe this game in four words, they would be U-G-L-Y.

On defense, things went swimmingly.  Illinois is a very poor shooting team to start out with, and MSU played tough man-to-man defense all night.  The result:

  • 11-28 shooting on 2-pointers (39.3%)
  • 4-22 shooting on 3-pointers (18.2%)
  • 7-19 shooting from the line (36.8%)
  • 0.63 points per possession

Remarkably, all 4 of Illinois’ 3-pointers came in a 3-minute stretch when they took the lead late in the first half.  Subtract that stretch and the Illini shooting was as frigid as the air outside the arena.  Any time your opponent’s high scorer has 7 points (Brock/Meacham), you’ve played great defense.

On offense, things could have gone better, to put it mildly.  Once again, turnovers were a major problem–19 in 65 possessions (29.2%).  Lucas really struggled tonight: 4 turnovers, zero assists.  Most maddening was watching MSU turn the ball over four times in the last two minutes–with all three point guards on the floor for most of that time.

And they didn’t do much with the possessions they actually shot the ball on.  They didn’t make a single 3-pointers (0-9) all night.  In fact, by my count they only made 2 shots outside 12 feet (Morgan early in the first; Neitzel early in the second).

What saved MSU from an upset was getting to the line.  They made 19 of 25 free throw opportunities.  The Illini were called for 23 fouls, and probably deserved to be called for a few more as they bumped and knocked over Spartan players all night.

Neitzel led the way, making all 7 of his attempts from the line.  Despite going 0-6 from 3-point range, he managed to score 15 points.  He fueled the Spartan resurgence in the second half, scoring 9 points in a 3-minute stretch to overcome a 4-point halftime deficit.

It’s an ugly box score, so I won’t break it down any further than I already have.  Instead, let’s focus on the bright side of life:  MSU has achieved it’s best start ever at 19-2.  As much as it feels like the Spartans have underachieved to date, 19 wins in 21 games is pretty darn good.

Next game: 8:00 Saturday at Penn State.  Big Ten Network.

IU and Wisconsin play tomorrow night at 9:00 on ESPN.  Somebody’s gotta lose.

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No Responses to “Illinois Game Recap (1/30/08)”

  1. Davidon 31 Jan 2008 at 8:37 am 1

    You captured it well.

    What a brutal game to watch, the game never really got going, fans were quiet because there was nothing to cheer for.

    A W is a W though. Go Green!

    David

  2. bterpon 31 Jan 2008 at 12:33 pm 2

    I couldn’t agree more with you game analysis. I was pretty excited to enjoy my first state game at the Breslin this year, only to watch an old school-fashioned big ten grind it out game. It was UGLY!

    Fortunately for us, we were able to make a few more plays in the 2nd half to pull out the win. Illinios always plays us tough with their “in your grill” man to man style defense. Just getting through these games without any serious injury is a victory in and of itself.

    With Penn State this weekend, I think we’ll bounce back just fine and score closer to our average.

    One thought: I know they are freshman, but Allen and Summers both need to be stronger and more assertive with the basketball and when making passes. When March comes around, and we are playing better competition, they won’t see the floor much if they keep this up. Guys are really going to start coming at them defensively. In my mind, if you are being overplayed that much, you’ve got to make one quick move and make them pay for it.

    Go State!

  3. Danon 31 Jan 2008 at 5:39 pm 3

    So much for my theory that the turnovers were a product of playing teams that always force a ton of turnovers. Illinois is not in that category.

    With all the practice they get at setting screens, you’d think they’d have learned how to do it legally by now. (And ye gods, Lucas, a jump pass from right across halfcourt … that’s not a good plan when there’s no one else in the frontcourt. Or even when one of the other guys is.)

  4. spartanproduceron 31 Jan 2008 at 7:37 pm 4

    I’d like to know how often in this day and age of “chuck a lot of 3 pointers” basketball, teams win without making a three (and win by 10 at that). Can’t believe it happens to often.

  5. kjon 31 Jan 2008 at 8:09 pm 5

    Answer: According to bbstate.com, there have been 18 Division 1 basketball games this season in which a failed to make a 3-pointer. Remarkably, 6 of those 18 teams managed to win.

    Last season, there were 40 such games. 12 of the 40 teams failing to make a 3 still managed to win.

    The data output doesn’t readily tell you how many 3-pointers the teams attempted, which would obviously make a difference. Extreme outlier: Eastern Washington scored 100 points in a game last season without make a 3, but only attempted 5 of them.

  6. spartanproduceron 31 Jan 2008 at 8:19 pm 6

    nice work, looking that up so quick, now I can sound even more knowledgable with my less internet savvy friends!! keep up the great site!!