Monday Night Musings
Posted by kj on Monday, January 28th, 2008
MSU jumps up to #8/7 in the AP and coaches’ polls. They leapfrogged Washington State and IU in both polls, and moved ahead of Tenneessee in the coaches’ poll. IU and Wisconsin are ranked 11th and 13th, respectively, in both polls. Purdue is now receiving honorable mention votes in both polls.
The Spartans are more or less holding steady in the formula-driven rankings:
Sagarin ratings: #9 (up from #11)
Kenpom ratings: #17 (down from #16)
BB State ratings ($): #8 (up from #12)
RPI at StatSheet: #6 (down from #5)
Catching Up With Old Foes
The quality of your nonconference schedule can obviously be a big factor when it comes time for NCAA tournament seeding. I thought I’d look at how well our key nonconference opponents have fared since we played them to see how strong our resume might look to the tournament committee.
Missouri
Record: 12-8 overall; 2-3 in the Big 12
Key wins since we played them: Maryland, Purdue, Texas
Losses since we played them: Arkansas, California, Illinois, Iowa State, Kansas, Texas Tech
Comment: Obviously an up and down team. They just lost their leading scorer to yet another off-court incident, so they may continue to fade down the stretch.
UCLA
Record: 18-2 overall; 6-1 in the Pac 10
Key wins since we played them: Stanford, California, Washington State, Oregon
Losses since we played them: Texas, USC
Comment: The only nonconference foe to defeat us, this still looks like a “quality loss” (if you can forget the fact that we led for most of the game).
NC State
Record: 13-6 overall; 2-3 in the ACC
Key wins since we played them: Seton Hall, Florida State (both road games)
Losses since we played them: East Carolina, UNC, Clemson, Georgia Tech
Comment: They haven’t performed well; Kenpom projects them to go just 5-11 in conference.
Bradley
Record: 11-10 overall; 4-5 in the MVC
Key wins since we played them: Illinois State
Losses since we played them: Seven of the nine games have been losses
Comment: Apparently, the Bradley faithful haven’t exerted themselves like they did when MSU came to town. They’ve dropped four of six home games since then.
BYU
Record: 15-5 overall; 4-1 in the Mountain West
Key wins since we played them: Utah (on the road)
Losses since we played them: Bouse State, Wake Forest, UNLV
Comment: It appears they’re taking care of business in conference.
Texas
Record: 16-3 overall; 3-1 in the Big 12
Key wins since we played them: St. Mary’s (???; ranked 32nd in Pomeroy Rankings); beat UCLA and Tennessee before they played us
Losses since we played them: Wisconsin, Missouri
Comment: Still the best entry on our resume; they’re currently ranked 10th in both polls.
Conclusion
Unfortunately, our nonconference wins aren’t looking quite as impressive as they did when we played the games. Ultimately, though, if we win the conference, the Texas win should be enough to get us at least a #2 seed. This is, of course, easier said than done.
Kenpom currently projects Wisconsin at 15-3 and IU at 14-4 in conference play. MSU is currently 6-1 in conference play. So, barring a collapse by both the Badgers and Hoosiers, it’ll probably take a 9-2 or 8-3 record down the stretch to earn at least a share of the conference title. That’s a pretty fine margin, given that road games remain against IU, Wisconsin, Purdue, Ohio State, and Illinois.
The Spartans have three games to continue putting it all together (home to Illinois, at Penn State, home to Northwestern). Then it’s go time, with road games at Purdue and Indiana. I think those two games may give us a sense how good this team really is.
Update: I’d almost managed to block it from my memory completely, but there was that one other loss during nonconference play–the one that doesn’t really count. The good news? Hoopraker notes that Grand Valley is currently 21-0 and ranked #2 in the country. Nevertheless, let’s not speak of this again.
Filed in big ten, msu basketball
Spartalyticalon 29 Jan 2008 at 9:11 am 1Izzo mentioned that in preparation for the UM game, he was going about team practices as though it was tournament time, with short, frequent sessions. His routine was similar over the Christmas break, when classes weren’t in session and the team could focus exclusively on basketball. I wonder if he’s doing something similar this week. This is the longest remaining easy stretch we have this year, and the Spartans need to make it count. I think the game at Purdue will be a dog fight, and Indiana is a scary mix of super-talented and unpredictable.
Watching the IU game, I was a little torn. I wanted to see them win for reasons previously discussed (conference image, etc.). I wanted to see them exposed a little bit for some of their inconsistency (yes, kettle, I’ve already met you). I wanted them to win to keep that inconsistency unexposed for our own sake in the future. I do fear that this loss may serve to light a fire that we’ll be faced with the tough task of extinguishing. Either way, I’m hoping the Badgers are irritated enough at their road loss at Mackey this weekend that they take it to the Hoosiers at home and help create a familiar logjam atop the conference. Keep in mind, they’re playing to even the standings for themselves, as well. Another tidbit to keep in mind is that Indiana is the only team of the big three to play the other two twice, since Wisconsin doesn’t travel to East Lansing this year. That extra toughie for the Hoosiers may help separate the standings a bit when the dust settles this season.
Steveon 29 Jan 2008 at 11:52 am 2Bradley fell hard when they lost Daniel Ruffin to injury, and they’ve been playing better since he returned. If they sustain that over the second half of the Valley season, that win will still a good one for State.