Northwestern Game Preview
Posted by kj on Wednesday, January 23rd, 2008
9:00 Thursday. Evanston. ESPN2. Northwestern comes in winless (0-5) in conference play.
The Michigan State and Northwestern tempo-free profiles are a study in contrasts:
MSU leads the nation in offensive rebounding %. Northwestern is dead last (341st) in the nation in offensive rebounding % and ranks in the bottom 20 in defensive rebounding %.
MSU turns the ball over a lot (170th in the nation in TO%) and doesn’t create a lot of turnovers (291st in defensive TO%). Northwestern ranks in the top 20 in both offensive and defensive TO%.
MSU doesn’t shoot a lot of 3-pointers (2nd lowest 3FG/FGA % in the nation). Northwestern takes a lot of 3-pointers (21st highest 3FG/FGA %).
The first two items above worry me a bit. I see a natural limit (roughly 50-55%) in the percentage of offensive rebounds MSU can haul in. On the other hand, I see no natural limit in the number of turnovers MSU can give up.
So I’ll say the Spartans Weblog key to the game is closing out on Northwestern’s 3-point shooters to make sure the extra Wildcat possessions the two team’s respective turnover margins are likely to create don’t result in Northwestern racking up a lot of points from beyond the arc. Northwestern also allows its opponents to shoot a lot of three pointers (319th in the nation in 3FG/FGA), so we’ll see if Lucas and Allen can continue to knock down a few 3-pointers to keep the defense honest.
Kenpom likes MSU to win 71-59.
A few links of interest:
Grant Wahl says MSU almost made the Magic Eight.
Joe Rexrode has midseason updates on the Izzo coaching tree.
Not directly relevant to us fans of a clearly “major” team, but Mr. Mid-Majority himself weighs in on what constitutes a “mid-major.” He says it’s all about the Benjamins–fewer than 20 million and you’re a mid-major.
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Spartalyticalon 24 Jan 2008 at 3:05 pm 1I still like the Spartans like a dozen (Kenpom’s come down from 15 earlier, if I recall correctly). If Carmody could just get some better recruiting going on, his offensive and defensive styles might actually take that program somewhere. That’s honestly not a slam on that program. There are good things going on there, but it can’t lead anywhere when there’s no fuel behind it.
Unforced turnovers are key, once again. In four of five conference games so far, that stat’s been out of control. Only against OSU did we have our act together in the least. Defending the three will be important as well, but the Spartans have shown they can buck up to that task. And I agree, if Neitzel, Allen, and Lucas can knock down some outside shots — not even a ton, just enough to upset that 1-3-1 — we should have relatively few problems.
Spartalyticalon 24 Jan 2008 at 3:09 pm 2By the way, did anyone catch any of that Baylor/TAMU marathon last night? Almost 200 FGAs in the whole (5OT) game, 130 some odd rebounds, 75 or so personal fouls, and only around 30 turnovers among both teams. That’s impressive considering eight kids fouled out, forcing both coaches deeper into their rosters. Just thought I’d share.