" title="Spartans Weblog">Spartans Weblog

So let’s take a few minutes to talk about the rest of the MSU offense. Shooting the ball (as measured by PPWS) is certainly important, but there are two other key statistical components to offensive performance:

• Turnovers: How often a team forfeits the chance to shoot the ball by giving it away to the other team.
• Offensive rebounds: How often a team gains an extra chance to shoot the ball by recovering a missed shot.

Historically, Michigan State has been very good at offensive rebounding and a little too generous in giving up turnovers. Last year, the turnover thing was a real killer. As the Artist Formerly Known as the Big Ten Wonk (AFKATBTW) puts it:

Michigan State’s inability to hold on to the ball last year wasn’t just glaring. It was historic.

Highest turnover percentages, 2006 & 2007, Conference games only
ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-10, SEC

Michigan State, 2007           26.0
Georgia Tech, 2006             25.8
Oklahoma State, 2006           25.7

The Spartans turned the ball over more than once every four possessions in conference play last year, and that was the only thing standing in the way of this team. Had they been merely average in terms of holding onto the ball, Michigan State, even as young as they were in 2007, could have made things a lot more crowded–and a lot more interesting–at the top of the Big Ten.

Let’s pause here for a technical note: Turnover percentage is the proportion of a team’s possessions in which it gives the ball away. Looking at turnovers as a percentage of possessions, rather than on a per-game basis, controls for the tempo at which a team plays.

(While I’m thinking about it, you better go ahead and read this primer from the AFKATBTW. He lays out the tempo-free stat (TFS) scheme is in a much more logical manner than the piecemeal fashion in which I’m presenting the various TF stats.)

Anyways, back to MSU: They gave up the ball in over 1/4 of their possessions during conference play last year, giving them substantially fewer chances to shoot the ball than their opponents. What saved them was shooting 52.% on 2-point field goal attempts, tops in the conference. (2007 Big Ten team TFS are here.) In other words, when they did manage to hold on to the ball, they were very efficient in shooting it.

So how are things going in the turnover department this year? Unfortunately, not so well. Through four games, MSU’s turnover % is down only slightly, to 24.8%. Clearly, turnovers were a big part of both Missouri and UCLA getting back into the games in Kansas City during the second half. So who have the biggest offenders been? Here are turnover percentages for individual players: an estimate of the percentage of possessions a particular player turns the ball over in when he’s on the floor:

Isaiah Dahlman 14.57%
Marquise Gray 9.13%
Travis Walton 6.22%
Kalin Lucas 6.17%
Goran Suton 5.25%
Raymar Morgan 5.25%
Durrell Summers 4.55%
Idong Ibok 3.64%
Chris Allen 2.87%
Drew Neitzel 2.63%
Drew Naymick 1.69%
Tom Herzog 0.00%

Dahlman’s high % is the result of two turnovers in limited minutes vs. Missouri. Gray’s % is concerning, but reflects the kind of high-risk/high-reward player he is–lots of dunks and lots of turnovers.

Most concerning are the percentage registered by the two point guards–Walton and Lucas, who are both giving up the ball on over 6% of the team’s possessions. Those numbers have to go down for the MSU offense to become more consistent.

Suton’s number seems a little high, but we can actually probably live with it given the 11 assists he’s put up. He’s a great passer for a big man. Some times that will translate into high percentage shots for his teammates; some times it will translate to turnovers.

Neitzel’s turnover percentage is stellar: 2.6%. He’s doing exactly what the team needs: scoring efficiently and taking care of the ball, putting up 17 assists to go with just 5 turnovers.

Now a quick word on offensive rebounding: This was the other factor that offset MSU’s propensity to turn the ball over last year to turn them into an average offensive team by Big Ten standards. They ranked first in the league during conference play in offensive rebounding percentage–the % of available rebounds on the offensive end that they managed to recover. Their percentage was 38.9%–over three percentage points higher than the number two team in the conference.

Through four games, the Spartans have pulled in an impressive 47.3% of offensive rebounds available to them. They were extremely good on the offensive rebounds against their first three opponents, actually rebounding equal to their opponents on the offensive end (45 to 45; 50.0%) in those three games. They were not quite as good vs. UCLA–gathering only 7 out of 20 available rebounds (35.0%). This is still a pretty good %, though. Seven offensive rebounds isn’t too impressive on paper (the man-child Kevin Love had eight all by himself), but the Spartans actually didn’t have very many opportunities to gather offensive rebounds. They only missed 21 field goal attempts and one free throw attempts. It was giving the ball away on 17 out of 61 possessions (27.9%) that ultimately doomed them.

For reasons of time and energy (we really need a website that automatically calculates tempo-free stats), I’ll forego analysis of individual player offensive rebounding, except to note this: Durrell Summers looks like he could be the next in a long line of Spartan guards who rebound well under Izzo (Charlie Bell, David Thomas, Kelvin Torbert). He’s gathered 1.75 offensive rebounds per game in just 16.0 minutes per game. Izzo has indicated Summers’ minutes may go up, and for good reason: he’s shooting the ball efficiently and creating extra offensive opportunities of his team.

So, to date, the cast is a little bigger. But the plot is the same as last year on the offensive end. MSU has shot the ball very well: 51.4% of two-pointers, 37.5% on three-pointers, and 79.4% on free throws. They’ve also rebounded very well on the offensive end. But they’ve given away the ball in bunches. If they can bring their turnover percentage down to a merely average level, this could be an extremely good offense down the stretch.

Out of town until late Sunday. Will try to take a look at the defense next week. (This has always been my problem as a basketball player, too–must more interested in the offensive end than the defensive end.)

MSU plays the Grizzlies of Oakland University at 4:00 Saturday at the Breslin Center. Big Ten Network–so fire up the satellite dish or find someone who has a satellite dish.